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Originally Posted by swiggidy
sry, missed the BB in hand 1.
I check the turn. First, you're right about villains being too passive to raise sets. Second, they suck at value betting and you may not have to call off your stack to get to showdown.
Hand 2 - so it has 49% equity against one of the best starting hands? Against better opponents I wouldn't value it as much, but against terrible post-flop players who will call pre with anything is it really bad to raise?
I'm saying it IS a good hand, but it's not like dominating everything like some people think AAxx might do.
So it has 49% equity against A236ds, but it's playability is crap. Your 49% is fine if you're playing NL and you can shove it preflop. With A236ds you either have a low or a straight or you don't. 47Q with 2 suited and you get it in. AQT and you'd fold (or know you're bluffing). You either have a flush draw or you don't. With AAKJ you're in a reverse implied odds situation with a one pair most of the time (to get your 49% equity you have to see a showdown with one pair a lot of the time). Add your OOP-ness and you can start to sense how you're setting up to win a little and lose a lot.
You've admitted you haven't played PLO8. I encourage you to give it a try, and when you do, you'll find within a couple of hours that position is really, really important and a very good hand in shithouse position is MUCH worse than a decent hand in good position. Another thing you'll learn is that because it's a pot limit game, the relative equity of your starting hands is dwarfed by position because starting hands matter preflop (where the betting must be small), but position matters on the later streets (with big bets). On the same note, playability on later streets is more important than pre flop equity. Also when your AAKK faces a big river bet on a Q45J6 board or even K45J6, you'll realize it really sucks to have to guess whether they have A299, or A239, or A29J, or A345, or even 6789. If you call, you're playing for half the pot, but if you fold, there goes some of that 50% equity.
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