FTR Brothers...Please help me out here with advice...

Hi,

This might seem like a long post so please check out the Cliffs Notes if you feel it would be a waste of time to read it all.

I am really in a dilemma FTR. PLEASE help me out here with some sound advice, the like of which I have always relied on ever since I joined FTR.

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Cliffs Notes:
Hero plays $4-$8, $6-$12 and $9-$18 regularly at B&M, 4 hours a day, every day.
Hero is running really bad at $4-$8, barely winning at $6-$12 and winning huge in $9-$18.

The starting of no-limit game in the B&M killed the $9-$18 so only option is to learn no-limit (not possible), start playing $15-$30 (always 2 games going with same caliber players as $9-$18, maybe a bit better).

Hero is only rolled for 200 BB for $15-$30.

What should hero do on the weekdays when there is no $9-$18 game going.


Hero's results live:

$4-$8 - Played 482 hours, won $3721 @ .96 BB/hour. hero won 3500$ out of this his first month playing $4-$8 in 100 hours. so he is apparently losing money in last 382 hours !!

$6-$12 - Played 158 hours, won $1518 @ .8 BB/hour

$9-$18 - Played 137 hours, won $5958 @ 2.4 BB/hour

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full story:

I play exclusively at B&M, 4 hours a day, every day . I started playing $4-$8 in October 2005 and slowly moved up through $6-$12 and $9-$18. My results at $4-$8 and $6-$12 have been barely decent and $9-$18 been very good.

However something happened recently that has me needing suggestion. Ever since the B&M started 300$ buy in No-Limit in the casino 1 month back, the $9-$18 is dead except on the weekends. It was difficult to get the $9-$18 going earlier but now its dead.

Meanwhile, in my last 200 hours of $4-$8 i have been losing. I cant blame it on variance because during the same period I have been ekeing out a small gain in $6-$12 but winning huge in $9-$18. If it was variance, it would affect all of my games.

No matter what I do in $4-$8, i just cant seem to put a winning session on a consistent basis. On the other hand, I put winning sessions on $9-$18 fairly consistently and always feel in control in that game.

I dont want to play this $4-$8 uphill battle anymore, but I am not rolled for the regular playing at $15-$30. I only have 200 BB for $15-$30. The $6-$12 game at our casino is not a good game but I dont hate it as bad as the $4-$8.

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My question is this?

1) During the weekdays when they dont have any $9-$18 game going, should i take an occasional stab at $15-$30, or i am preparing myself for failure and disaster if i do that ??

2) No you fool !! Keep playing $4-$8 and try to plug leaks in game. If you cant crush $4-$8 what are the chances you will beat $15-$30. My goal was to start playing consistently $15-$30 with 400 BB, start taking shots at 300BB levels. but 200 BB ? its too low ??

play the 15/30 game. 200 BB is enough for now to get you started just don't get shaky when/if you lose like 50 BB or so. It will probably be swingier but you should be able to handle it if you play smart.

Is the 15/30 a good game? Do you have outside money you can pad your roll with? If so, then take a shot, quit if you drop 100BB or feel like you're playing with scared money.

Fail that, learn $300 NL and follow the fish. It should be a turkey shoot if you've been working on your player reading skills at all over all of those hours.

As for the 4/8 thing, don't sweat it. I have trouble doing very well at the 3/6 my father regularly plays in. Don't under-estimate the impact of an opressive rake. Throw in a little downswing or tigher games and it's nothing out of line.

Are you playing for a living?

Thanks ElipsesJeff and Fnord.

Yes I work fulltime so have salary and all. The $15-$30 is a pretty good game and I have played with the same players at $9-$18 level.

$9-$18 is actually the game that mainly has players like me who dont have full bankroll of $15-$30 and the $15-$30 players who play while waiting for their table to open up. I have stood beside the $15-$30 tables while waiting for my tables and observed the action. You got some LAGs, Some rocks and some chasers. Other than watching out for the LAG's for trouble, there isnt too much stiff competition. The weekend action at the $15-$30 table is very juicy (but i am looking for playing that mostly on weekdays because weekends already has the $9-$18 table going)

Ltrain, No i am not playing for a living. I work full time as computer programmer. I play every day at the casino though for 4-5 hours (because i love poker and as a side income ). I try to put in at least 100 hours a month but take a break too once a while.

Originally Posted by pokerlearner

I started playing $4-$8 in October 2006 ...

This is your biggest problem. I hear time travel increases variance by the square of the speed of light, plus the jet lag is horrible.

Originally Posted by pokerlearner

If it was variance, it would affect all of my games.

In fact, quite the opposite, variance would tend more to show up by one set of stats varying from others. The smaller you break sample sizes up, the greater variance the variance between them. Also, remember how small your sample sizes are. Hundreds of hours seem like a lot, but you've probably only played 4-5k hands at 9/18, and 15-20k at 4/8. You haven't actually played enough to even know for sure if you are beating the rake.

LOL @ Xanadu. Sorry, I fixed the post now.

Yes you are right. My sample size at $9-$18 is definitely smaller than $4-$8, so i havent experienced variance yet on that limit.

However, from what I have seen is that I tend to do well in the games where the pots are contested between 3-4 players rather than 5-6 players (as in $4-$8). maybe its a problem with my adjustment of game to $4-$8 conditions.

Variance is higher with 5-6 to see the flop, but you should win more too. But, suppose you win about 2.5 pots an hour (being a tighter player than your opponents, you should win a smaller percentage of pots), you are losing 3/4BB per pot to the rake, if the pot reaches 5BB (assuming 10%, $4 max plus $1 jackpot drop plus $1 tip). You are losing roughly 2BB/hr to the house. You lose the same money at 9/18, but it is less than 1BB/hr.

4/8 rake shouldn't be too bad. I've never had a problem at my 5/10 game. Then again my local game is incredibly incredibly easy. I've never had a losing day there. I got close once, but then I hit the bad beat jackpot

Originally Posted by euphoricism

4/8 rake shouldn't be too bad. I've never had a problem at my 5/10 game.

5/10 > 4/8
No comment on structure/drop given
You describe your 5/10 game as a fish fest. I've played tougher 3/6 and 4/8 games than my typical 9/18 table.

Also consider different table textures:
o Everyone is playing very tight/predictable and folding too much.
o A sucker or two, bunch of medicore/aware players and a shark or two.
o Half the table limps and sees a flop
o Just about everyone limps and sees a flop
o 2 LAggs going at it.
o 2 LAggs going at it and 3+ people are following them to every flop.

Each texture requires adjustments to win the most, has different levels of varians and some will cause you to lose more to the rake than others.

Hence, my thought is that the best thing to get 2/4 and 3/6 online going again would be to cut the rake in half (or more.) Thinking players could rip the campers a new one and the action generated by this would attract gamblers back to the table.

If the players are about the same at 15/30, I'd play there. It's not really that big of a step up from 9/18. And like others said, if you start to run bad or lose a good chunk of your roll, you can always hop back down to the 6/12 game. I'm assuming that this game is still going despite the new NL games, although you didn't mention it explicitly.

here is an update. I had been running a bit bad so held it off playing at $15-$30 till yesterday. However, took a shot yesterday.

Played 5 hours, down $347 (ie 11 BB).

Highlights: Got dealt pocket QQ 7 times (once back to back, SB and BB !!) , won 2wice, lost 5 times. Out of those 5 times, went against AA twice , and other two times had an A and K on the flop !!. so saved some bets by giving it up on the flop when villains showed action.

Lost a HUGE Kill Pot, with a set. However, to my fault, i played it a very passively (missed checkraise on the flop, didnt raise the turn, and lost to straight ).

Hopefully i can keep playing this game and dont lose 50 BB before i have to move back down.

WISH ME LUCK

Hand 1:
Kill Pot ($30-$60)

CO is the calling station at the table. SB is fairly good. UTG+1 is bluff master (bluffs at everything, but has whole table on tilt when they call down his nothing with worse nothing !!)

Hero is 8c-8s in MP2

UTG calls, Hero calls , CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, UTG+1 (Kill Button) raises), everyone calls.

Flop: 8d-10d-Jh wanted to checkraise..missed
Utg checks, Hero checks, it gets checked behind

Turn: 8d-10d-Jh-3c HORRIBLE play not raising. I totally missed the board. I thought i was slowplaying..didnt realise so many cards make me toast
SB bets, Hero calls, CO calls, Button calls

River: 8d-10d-Jh-3c-7s
SB bets, Hero calls, CO raises, SB calls, hero folds.

SB shows 9-10, CO shows K-9. CO and sb chop the pot.


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No Raise preflop to isolate the limper? In my TAG games you got to do it but if this is Loose passive then nevermind.

With 2 diamonds and 3 straight out there, I'm usually ramming and jamming on the flop here to build the pot. Turn too, although they (rightfully so) aren't folding their OESDs. River I still make a crying call after I've inflated the pot.

Elipsis. I dont raise with 88 this early because in kill pots, people are not folding J-10s, any 2 paint card, Axs etc. In regular pots some decent players fold a lot of stuff but everyone wants action in kill pots.

not raising the turn was the most horrible thing in my part. However, i was waiting to checkraise the flop which didnt happen. I didnt raise the turn getting too greedy thinking of raking in a huge one with all the callers behind me. however i FORGOT to take into consideration my vulnuerable set here that can be crushed by so many cards...

lesson learned i guess