|
|
 Originally Posted by NWNewell
The simple math is that the stealer (if not in the SB) needs to succeed 58% of the time to show an immediate profit.
EV = (1.5sb * 58% win) + (-2sb * 42% lose) = +0.03sb
So, in order to thwart his steal attempts, you should be defending against him at least 60% of the time. Or sixty percent of his range. So, if he steals 50% of the time (or top 50% of hands) you should be defending with the top 30% (FWIW... A40 is boarder lining on the outside of 30% range).
Depending on how much better you play against him post flop, you can probably play more hands. But, for me, sticking around 60% or so, allows me to defend enough enough to spoil the steal attempts, yet gives me enough equity to make up for my positional disadvantage, IMO.
Just my 2 cents...
I lke calling with a wider range than i'm being raised with. I think the basic question to ask yourself is can you do better with your two cards oop than the -0.5 BB/hand you get by folding -- and with a lot of hands i think you can. Even calling with a seemingly 'weak' hand like 65s (which is about as low as i'll normally go) here is ok to me, because you're implied odds are high and you are going to know right away on the flop if you like your hand or not.
Imagine your opponent c-bets 100% of the time on the flop, and you follow the strategy of c/r'ing whenever you catch a flush draw, pair, OESD. or top end of a gutshot. Assume for this example you never bluff. With 65s that means you will c/r almost 50% of the time. So 50% of the time you fold your six-high to his c-bet, losing 1 BB (at least you're not worried about folding the best hand!). Maybe 10% (or more) of the time you c/r and he folds, and you gain 1.75 BB. Maybe another 10% you c/r and he calls you down to chase his overcards or A high, folding on the turn or river when he misses. You might gain 2.75 BB on average. You'll complete your flush or straight draw on the turn or river about 10% of the time and you might gain 3.25 BB on average here, depending on your opponent and whether he continues to the river or folds the turn.
Of course bad things can happen too. Maybe 10% he re-raises your c/r and the board is scary so you call with your bottom pair and c/f the turn if you don't improve. You might lose 2.5 BB on average. And maybe 10% of the time he re-raises or calls you down to the river with a better hand, draws out to an overcard vs. your bottom pair, and/or you miss your draw(s), costing you 5 BB.
All told in these various scenarios you lose about 70% of the time and your EV is -.24 BB. That is still a lot better than folding preflop. Obviously this analysis is imprecise and doesn't cover all the possible outcomes and you may end up losing more than that with a hand like 65s against tighter opponents who will not payyou off with Ace high but will charge you to draw when they're pretty sure they're ahead.
But i like defending with hands like this because like i said it will be pretty clear on the flop whether the hand is worth taking further or not. Also these hands have deceptive value because most players won't defend with them. For example if you have 65s and the flop comes K43 rainbow and you c/r, he's probably putting you on a King , 33+, or maybe A5-A2, but not 65. Or on the rare occasions it comes with two sixes, two fives or a six and five, he will rarely suspect how far behind he is when you c/r the flop. If he has a middle pp or better on a big-little-little rainbow flop like this he will probably jam you, in which case you can c/c the turn if you miss your draw or c/r your trips or two pair. And if a 7 or 2 that completes your straight comes on the turn or river, chances are he's going to think it 's a blank and you can get some nice value bets in there as well.
Again the question to me is not whether I will be a favorite whenever I call a steal raise but whether my EV will be better than -.5 BB. I don't think you need to be ahead preflop to manage this and also i think you can do it while pretty much always folding to a c-bet when you have no pair, and no 6+ out draw to middle pair or better.
|