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Before I got to the results post I thought that the turn play for villain would be odd with a flush or straight draw - even a QsJs (best drawing hand possible) I'm not sure would flat the turn bet. I'm pretty sure it shouldn't call tbh. Both flop and turn play for villain are consistent with "hating it, but have too much hand strength (absolute, not relative) to fold" - two pair kind of fits exactly in there.
River bet could very well be a reaction to him calling scared on the first two streets and now wanting to scare Hero on the river. He's probably not a good enough player that he's done hand range analysis for the hero and understand exactly how poorly off he is.
With regards to Hero's question - I think the line is fine. To stack off on the turn I think the line is probably to overbet the flop maybe as much as $2 and then overbet shoving the turn - but I don't think that's really a better line. While you'll get a lot more folds that way I think your equity is solid enough (even on this flop) that you are looking to maximise the opponents calling chances.
Code:
Board: As Qc Ks
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 65.129% 64.52% 00.60% 21719 203.50 { AcAd }
Hand 1: 34.871% 34.27% 00.60% 11534 203.50 { AQs+, KQs, QsJs, QsTs, JTs, Ts9s, AQo+, KQo, JTo }
I've put in what I consider a likely range for the villain to continue against your aggression on the flop. I think it's basically the best case for villain equity wise. I included T9s because it has added equity with the straight draw, but none of the lower flush draws as they reduced the overall equity a bit.
Code:
Board: As Qc Ks 4d
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 61.430% 61.43% 00.00% 919 0.00 { AcAd }
Hand 1: 38.570% 38.57% 00.00% 577 0.00 { AQs+, KQs, QsJs, QsTs, JTs, Ts9s, AQo+, KQo, JTo }
Let's say for the sake of argument that you overbet the pot on the flop and some of the weaker hands in the range fold out as a result. You could now be looking at this:
Code:
Board: As Qc Ks 4d
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.698% 43.70% 00.00% 423 0.00 { AcAd }
Hand 1: 56.302% 56.30% 00.00% 545 0.00 { AQs+, JTs, AQo+, JTo }
Point being - the risk of overbetting is that you fold out the hands that beat you and only the hands with solid equity against you continue. In this hand I think you are strong enough to continue with any normal size bet, but overbetting isn't a great idea.
As played I think we can assume that all the hands from the flop range with two pair or better continue through flop and turn. The QsJs hands might fold the turn, and two of them are eliminated by Ts coming on the river. I'll leave QsJs in.
Code:
Board: As Qc Ks 4d Ts
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 53.571% 53.57% 00.00% 15 0.00 { AcAd }
Hand 1: 46.429% 46.43% 00.00% 13 0.00 { AQs+, KQs, QsJs, JTs, AQo+, KQo, JTo }
From rough approximations I think we need 23% equity in the hand to call the river bet. If I eliminate hands from the above range to approximate here is one option:
Code:
Board: As Qc Ks 4d Ts
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 23.529% 23.53% 00.00% 4 0.00 { AcAd }
Hand 1: 76.471% 76.47% 00.00% 13 0.00 { AQs+, QsJs, JTs, AKo, JTo }
So basically if he has a JT, QsJs, AK or AQs exactly we are about breakeven - any more hands in his range (of the two pair variety which I think is pretty likely) and we have to call.
We could go the other way... including more hands with straight and flush draws (that both got the wrong price especially on the turn to continue in the hand). I'm not going to do that exercise, but suffice it to say that if the opponent has played a straight or flush draw to this turn bet he's taken a -EV decision there which your river call does not justify - so by calling the river the villain has still taken the worst of it.
The only real argument here is if my estimate that a lot of two-pair hands continue is too generous to you. Some posters prior to me didn't think two-pair hands were possible at all - this is something I'd tend to disagree with especially at these limits where relative hand strength isn't well understood. Also your line could just as easily be TT or JJ playing for fold equity as a semi-bluff - a two pair hand doesn't need to assume that it's beaten.
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$10NL FR with AA and semi scary board
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Originally Posted by bigred
