$10nl jam turn?

Villain is 21/7 over 70 hands

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP2 ($2)
MP3 ($11)
CO ($9.20)
Hero (Button) ($12.45)
SB ($12.60)
BB ($6.75)
UTG ($13.05)
UTG+1 ($5.65)
MP1 ($11.30)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, A
UTG calls $0.10, UTG+1 calls $0.10, MP1 calls $0.10, 3 folds, Hero bets $0.80, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls $0.70, 1 fold

Flop: ($1.95) 9, 8, 5 (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $1.30, UTG+1 calls $1.30

Turn: ($4.55) K (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero?

Flop bet ok?

Check turn and c/f all rivers.

Or shove.

Why don't we make another 2/3 pot bet? I think he would call with worse, and it's easy to fold if he raises you. Then check behind river.

Why are the turn options just check and shove?

Okay I realize I didn't really put any effort into analyzing this hand on my own before posting, which unfortunately is a poor mistake.

I quickly posted it right before stepping out and it was pretty arrogant of me to do so, so if any further comments can be withheld for the time being I will re-bump this thread after I give an analysis of my own, and then you guys can review my analysis and see if you feel I've made some mistakes.

-m2m

Range: PP's up to 88 a6s, k7s A9o-AQo T9s+ A9s+ The a9s hands don't make sense.

Without any reads beyond stats, I think this is a pretty standard "get out of it cheap" sort of situation.

I don't like the flop bet either, the more draws that are present, the larger your bet should be, thus causing your c-bet to tend closer to pot than not. Especially against such a loose range.

Jamming turn is bad, nothing you beat calls.

^^ I have been informed that this range sucks balls. Please do not put any faith in it.

Let's see what we think he'll call with on the flop:

Running the following range through stove shows us we have about 60% equity vs villains calling range on the flop.

Board: 9s 8s 5d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.229% 58.84% 00.39% 32036 214.00 { AcAh }
Hand 1: 40.771% 40.38% 00.39% 21986 214.00 { JJ-88, 55, AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, A9s, KsQs, KsJs, KsTs, QsJs, QsTs, JTs, 98s, A9o, JTo }

Now on to the turn:

Villain checked the turn, so he still has all of his range that he called a bet on the flop, however, he may start folding out some of his hands if we bet:

Board: 9s 8s 5d Ks
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.055% 54.06% 00.00% 1213 0.00 { AcAh }
Hand 1: 45.945% 45.94% 00.00% 1031 0.00 { JJ-88, 55, AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, A9s, KsQs, KsJs, KsTs, QsJs, QsTs, JTs, 98s, A9o, JTo }

Now let's assume villain will fold out some trash in his range, and pairs lower than a king:

Board: 9s 8s 5d Ks
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 19.628% 19.63% 00.00% 190 0.00 { AcAh }
Hand 1: 80.372% 80.37% 00.00% 778 0.00 { 99-88, 55, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, A9s, QsJs, QsTs, JTs, 98s }

I think I also left in some hands there that he's folding, though he could be calling with some weird ass shit too so I guess I'll just leave it at that.

So we are absolutely crushed on the turn. Looks like checking is the correct play.

Let me know if I messed any of this up or if you disagree with the ranges etc.

Also, if we decide he's compeltely retarded and stacks off with TT and JJ also on turn along with some other stuff here's what it looks like:

Board: 9s 8s 5d Ks
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.781% 42.78% 00.00% 640 0.00 { AcAh }
Hand 1: 57.219% 57.22% 00.00% 856 0.00 { JJ-88, 55, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, A9s, QsJs, QsTs, JTs, 98s }

Originally Posted by siltstrider

Why don't we make another 2/3 pot bet? I think he would call with worse, and it's easy to fold if he raises you. Then check behind river.

Why are the turn options just check and shove?

he has a little over 2/3 pot left in his stack, what are we going to do, fold to 50 cent shove? might as well shove $3.5 or whatever he has left if we're going to make a $3 bet

I don't see him folding TT+ or even A9 here
if we assume he's not folding any 9 in his range:

Board: 9s 8s 5d Ks

Hand 0: 53.294% { 88+, 55, A9s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, K9s, Q9s, JsTs, J9s, T9s, 98s, 76s, A9o, J9o, T9o, 98o, 76o }
Hand 1: 46.706% { AcAh }

I don't know if he would peel the flop with overs, because if he does our chances just got better since he hits the king
Now, he's going to fold to the shove a decent % of the time, and I think that you have to take into account that we gain money by having him fold a single spade that may get there on the river

if we had the ace of spades, I could see an argument for checking behind and calling any river because we'd gain value from his bluffs
although I'm not sure how rampant random bluff shoves are, but feesh in 6m lurve to bruff