(5NL player giving advice to 10NL question)
Total pot to be won if call: $1.95 + $1.50 + $4.50 + $3.00 = $10.95
Pot odds to call: $3.00/$10.93 = 27%
Hero must win at least 27% of the time to be profitable.
Worst case scenario: Villain holds an A-high straight
Hero has 10 outs for the board to pair, and 3 outs to counterfeit the straight, but the 3 outs only count for half the pot, so 3/2 = 1.5
11.5 outs ~= 25%
Hero will make the draw less than 27% of the time.
Drawing odds < Pot odds = fold
Implied odds:
Hero needs ( $3.00/0.25 = ) $12 in the final pot to call,
( $12.00 - $10.95 = ) $1.05 of which is not Hero's money
How can Villain fold to a bet so small on the river?
If Villain holds anything else, besides KK (discounted), Hero is way ahead.
This is a very close call, but I think a call is the best play.
EDIT: On reflection, if Villain has an ace, then Hero likely has only 9 outs to pair the board... but still a call.
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