[2NL] JJ facing big river bet.

Villain was 31/18/10 through 341 hands. Folded to flop cbets 50% of the time, 2/4 in this session, 9/18 overall. Folded to turn cbet 50% of time, 1/2 times in this session, 3/6 overall. Hadn't seen him do anything too crazy.

I know Villain defends his blinds wide, had seen him defend with K5s. Also had another note on him, he lead out on flop & turn with a weak FD and when he hit on the river, he checked it.

PokerStars - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: $4.45
UTG: $0.98
Hero (MP): $4.01
CO: $2.60
BTN: $3.78
SB: $5.12

SB posts SB $0.01, BB posts BB $0.02

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.03) Hero has J J

fold, Hero raises to $0.06, CO calls $0.06, fold, fold, BB calls $0.04

Flop: ($0.19, 3 players) 4 9 2
BB checks, Hero bets $0.12, fold, BB calls $0.12

Turn: ($0.43, 2 players) 8
BB checks, Hero bets $0.28, BB calls $0.28

River: ($0.99, 2 players) T
BB bets $1.16, Hero???

Hero calls.

I'm feeling QT or A3 of hearts on Villain's line. I mean, V-towning on a set with 99, 44, or 22 isn't out of the picture. I'm not feeling a c/c on the turn if Villain had 88. Hero holds blockers to QJ, and J6 or 76 is a pretty bold float on the flop. A villain with 10% 3-bet is probably not slow playing TT+ OOP. I guess T9 and T8 make sense.

Also, I'd bet ~$0.15 on the flop and when the board gets draw heavy on the turn, I'd go full pot.

15c flop
35c turn as played
river is close but fold. His most likely holdings are TT and T9. Fish tend to bet their monsters oop on the river cos they're terrified you will check back and they will lose value.

Originally Posted by daven

15c flop
35c turn as played
river is close but fold. His most likely holdings are TT and T9. Fish tend to bet their monsters oop on the river cos they're terrified you will check back and they will lose value.

He has already shown he is capable of checking a big hand on the river. With me checking behind when he made the flush earlier it just feels like he wants value for his hand this time.

I realize we are both making the same point of folding, just saying he is capable of checking made hands on the river.

Fold. Wouldn't be surprised to see this fishy line with all sets 98,9T over betting the river is nearly always strength especially from bad players, sigh then fold. I also agree with monkey and daven bet more on flop and turn it's not gonna affect his calling range/frequency at all, try and bet the max on every street when betting for value, why bet .12 when villain is willing to call .15 and why bet .28 when villain is willing to call ~.32? Betting larger will bloat the pot and set up a nice bet size for the river.

Yeah I probably should have bet more, I always think people will notice my sizing and I don't want to scare off any drawing hands by betting too big.

Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

I don't want to scare off any drawing hands by betting too big.

Sometimes i think bad players call more often with draws when you bet bigger giving them worse odds, their logic being "i'm going to win a big pot/stack this guy if i catch a heart" or w/e but then when they make a large re raise or shove all in when the obvious FD completes you just fold. So they're making a big mistake by over estimating their implied odds to justify calling on their draws.

Originally Posted by seven-deuce

Sometimes i think bad players call more often with draws when you bet bigger giving them worse odds, their logic being "i'm going to win a big pot/stack this guy if i catch a heart" or w/e but then when they make a large re raise or shove all in when the obvious FD completes you just fold. So they're making a big mistake by over estimating their implied odds to justify calling on their draws.

That makes sense, I think I probably still give way too much credit to the majority of players. As people have said time & time again on here, most players at 2NL don't even notice bet sizing.

MMM - you can't assign 2 hands to a villain, his range is wayyyyy bigger than that.

seven-deuce nails it here imo

If you always folded to this line and this river sizing at the micros, you would rarely be making a mistake.

Folding.

Yeah I fold and maybe tell him in chat "lol AK, thanks I was gonna bet again".