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[5NL] KQo on the button. Flop trips against tight villain...his range?

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  1. #1

    Default [5NL] KQo on the button. Flop trips against tight villain...his range?

    Villain is 11/3/0 (3bet) through 64 hands. Had folded his blinds to steal 100% of the time, 2/2 in SB, 4/4 in BB. Fold to flop cbet was 50%, 1/2.

    PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
    Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

    UTG: $8.71
    MP: $5.42
    CO: $7.48
    Hero (BTN): $5.62
    SB: $4.45
    BB: $19.43

    SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

    Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has Q K

    fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.15, fold, BB calls $0.10

    Flop: ($0.32, 2 players) Q 3 Q
    BB checks, Hero bets $0.20, BB calls $0.20

    Turn: ($0.72, 2 players) 6
    BB checks, Hero bets $0.50, BB raises to $1.75, Hero calls $1.25

    River: ($4.22, 2 players) 4
    BB bets $4.05, Hero ???

    Flop - He c/c. I think villain could have 33, 99-JJ, KK+ I am discounting 22, 44-88 based on his tight image. AKs/AKo, Acxc, AQs+, KQs, QTs+, AQo+, KQo, QTo+. I don't think villain would call with any smaller Qx type hands than QTo.

    Turn - Now, he c/r me? I feel he has to have a Q now, 33 or at the very least KK+. Can we narrow it down that far? The turn is an absolute blank, unless he was adventurous and called with 66 on the flop, but I doubt it. Would he do this with the NFD on a paired board, surely he would just call again? Range = 33, KK+, AQs, KQs, QTs+, AQo, KQo, QTo+

    River - He raised the turn to set up a river shove ( enough to put me all-in ) River is another blank, so I don't think villain's range changes from the turn.

    If I am doing this correctly, there are 3 combo's of 33, there are 3 combo's of KK, 6 combo's of AA, 4 combo's of AQ, 3 combo's of KQ, 4 combo's of QJ and 4 combo's of QT.

    That's a total of 27 combo's. I can beat 17 combo's, tie with 3, and lose to 7.

    If my range is correct, I would have to call.

    Thoughts?
    Last edited by Cobra_1878; 02-20-2013 at 12:28 PM.
  2. #2
    Why do you not think he has TT+?

    If he doesn't think you have a Queen it's a pretty solid hand. Especially when you could have been trying to push him off his blinds with nothing, the fact he folds his blinds so often shows he has some form of a hand.
  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by ImSavy View Post
    Why do you not think he has TT+?
    Because he is 11/3, c/r me on the turn and shoved the river. Tight players wouldn't play so strongly with TT/JJ in my opinion.

    I used to be a really tight player, if it was me in this situation and I had TT/JJ, after the c/r on the turn I would almost definitely shut down on the river.
  4. #4
    64 hands isn't a huge sample on people either. You also don't have any notes on what his post-flop tendencies are.

    No doubt he'll be tight, but you can be card dead for that long and have marginal hands which people put in bad positions you don't want to play. Especially when you're limping all the time.

    I also think that you have to account for the fact he may well call lower pocket pairs.

    If you're so confident that he wouldn't be agressive post-flop then it screams that he's got a Q, hit a set so has a FH or has an overpair.
    Last edited by Savy; 02-20-2013 at 12:52 PM.
  5. #5
    spoonitnow's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ImSavy View Post
    64 hands isn't a huge sample on people either. You also don't have any notes on what his post-flop tendencies are.
    It is when they're 11/3, binomial theorem etc. (for the purposes of VPIP/PFR, anyway)

    Fold turn, then fold again on the river. You're crushed. Also, you have no reason to suspect he wouldn't 3-bet KK+ here.
    Last edited by spoonitnow; 02-20-2013 at 01:35 PM.
  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by ImSavy View Post
    64 hands isn't a huge sample on people either. You also don't have any notes on what his post-flop tendencies are.

    No doubt he'll be tight, but you can be card dead for that long and have marginal hands which people put in bad positions you don't want to play. Especially when you're limping all the time.

    I also think that you have to account for the fact he may well call lower pocket pairs.

    If you're so confident that he wouldn't be agressive post-flop then it screams that he's got a Q, hit a set so has a FH or has an overpair.
    And that's exactly what I put villain on.

    @ Spoon - Surprised you think it's a fold considering how many combo's I am ahead of. Are you putting on AQ at the very least?
  7. #7
    22+, AQ+, KK, TT, JJ
  8. #8
    supa's Avatar
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    66 should be included in his range given that you're probably cbetting this flop with most of yours.

    That said, you're a better man than me if you can fold this.

    *edit* lose QT from his range.
    Last edited by supa; 02-20-2013 at 01:20 PM.
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    Put hero on a goddamn range part II- The 6max years

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  9. #9
    spoonitnow's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cobra_1878 View Post
    And that's exactly what I put villain on.

    @ Spoon - Surprised you think it's a fold considering how many combo's I am ahead of. Are you putting on AQ at the very least?
    I can't think of a hand that he could have on the turn that you beat. Also, your flop range implies that he's calling at least 18% of hands and never 3-betting for value, which is probably not the case.
    Last edited by spoonitnow; 02-20-2013 at 01:33 PM.
  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by Cobra_1878 View Post
    And that's exactly what I put villain on.

    @ Spoon - Surprised you think it's a fold considering how many combo's I am ahead of. Are you putting on AQ at the very least?
    You're missing 66. And I still think he does it with TT+.

    It's the type of thing where when someone like that starts playing at you when he'd usually call you're in trouble. I call all streets and lose the vast majority of the time.

    Fold
  11. #11
    ^ to the above:

    How can you fold to his turn raise if you can include TT and JJ in his range? Or are you saying that he could arrive at the flop with those hands, which is pretty obvious...

    That being said, I don't think he check-raises the turn with TT/JJ, neither as a bluff or for value.

    AA/KK is discounted because of the flat call preflop, as spoon mentioned already.

    So what's left in his range? IMO his range here is pretty damn nutty, AQ is the bottom of his range. Or maaaaybe KQ. In either case you're crushed. Isn't this the archetypical "rope-a-donk" line that villain has taken?
  12. #12
    Isn't the c/r on the turn a near automatic fold against a villain this tight?
  13. #13
    Despite my post above, I should add that I often will be in this situation, decide that his range is probably the nuts, and still fail to lay it down.
  14. #14
    Fnord's Avatar
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    He can't be spewing here?

    I'm paying this off every time.
  15. #15
    Hmm, this is very interesting.

    He may 3bet KK/AA, but in case he decided to slow play them I included them in his range. Had I not included them, somebody would no doubt have wrote "How can you exclude KK/AA, villain could be slow playing blah blah".

    Never thought about including 66 in villain's range, just thought he would have folded that on the flop.

    There is no way this villain is c/r with TT/JJ and then shoving it on the river.
  16. #16
    Fnord's Avatar
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    Call pre-flop, float a paired flop, pop the turn, pot the river.

    Looks like a pretty standard line for me when I flip the spew bit.
  17. #17
    rpm's Avatar
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    i'd fold

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