Or am I just getting myself in a mess here?Originally Posted by supa
How far behind do you think we are? Not far based on my range, although I think this is too wide in retrospect
How much equity do you think we need to continue? Jam? We have 9 clean outs (so approx 20% on the turn). We don't have pot odds to call if utg folds or flats and we don't have postion, but we may get one street of value if we call and hit our flush however to make flatting +EV. If I jam, it seems clear that btn will call and I won't have the 46% I need to make the jam profitable (if utg folds).
Why isn't UTGs range being considered? What happens to our equity if we do add his range?...Why do you assume UTG will fold? Do we want him to? If we give UTG a fairly tight 66+ only, we have 35% equity and clearly we are okay with him jamming if we flat as this will show a small profit in the long run. I assume he will fold however if I jam based on the size and speed of his bet and the fact he's passive post flop, with only idiots getting it in here 3-way without 2 pair+ or a huge draw.
Overall, I think it's close between c/f and call as played, with the key judgement being how utg reacts if I do call or jam.
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