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10NL Semi bluff on 3bet pot. Line check.

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  1. #1

    Default 10NL Semi bluff on 3bet pot. Line check.

    No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    Button ($19.85)
    SB ($20.61)
    BB ($21.47)
    UTG ($25.59)
    UTG+1 ($5.97)
    MP1 ($11.80)
    MP2 ($4.35)
    Hero (CO) ($11.48)

    Preflop: Hero is CO with 9, 8
    1 fold, UTG calls $0.10, 3 folds, Hero bets $0.30, 1 fold, SB raises to $0.70, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.40

    Guy is 30/8 (3bet %1.5) (~500 hands sample size). It's the first time he 3bets from blinds against a steal. Him 3betting min is not weird at all, he usually min bets when he opens. My sizing was bad, I know. I usually make it 3bb+1 per limper from CO and BTN this 0.30 was a mistake. I put him on QQ+, AK after that 3bet, I can't see him defending a wide range here. He plays aggro post so I decided I have enough implied odds and called...

    Flop: ($1.50) 4, J, 10 (2 players)
    SB bets $1.10, Hero raises to $3.40, SB calls $2.30

    This flop was more than I hope for. His c-bet was expected. I decided that a raise must make him fold all his AK exept AKss. So a raise must give me 15/34 (~45%) fold equity and if get called I still have lots of pot equity. I thought any sizing less then 3x may seem weak and may encourage him to shove over and anything more seemed useless.

    Turn: ($8.30) 4 (2 players)
    SB bets $3, Hero raises to $7.38 (All-In)

    After getting called on the flop now I can only put him on QQ+, AKss. This turn card is good for me after the flop aggression. He must put me on 98ss, KQss, TT-QQ and maybe QJss,KJss,AJss. And this range must weigh through TT,JJ I guess. So a raise must fold out QQ and AKss. AA,KK may call hoping me to hold QQ. On the other hand AA and KK seemed less likely to me at this point since he would shove over the flop with them most of the time but I can't totally discount them from his range anyway. Which meens 7/19 (~35%) fold equity and I still have nearly 30% of equity in the pot if got called. Also his weak bet gave me some courage to calculate that much fold equity while he is getting million to 1 odds to call...

    Hoping to hear some criticism about my thought process, range assumption and bet sizing. Thanks in advance...
  2. #2
    calling the cbet seems vastly superior. the turn shove just seems plain retarded. what is he ever folding to your 1/3 PSB shove?!?!?!

    if villain had a wider range, which was bitch slapped by the flop, you could rebluff because you have fold equity. this flop means that the worst hand in his range is GSSD+two overs, and we're playing against a station. just take your price on the flop and get paid when you hit
  3. #3
    But his PF 3betting range is so tight. This is going to be AA/KK/QQ/AK so often, and if hes a little wider then its JJ/TT too.

    When you raise on the flop what hands fold? What if he has AA/JJ and makes a big 3bet? What if he has A K ? If you want to raise as a bluff (or semibluff for that matter) you need to have a think about what hands he will actually fold. If you cant name a sizable chunk then your bluff probably isnt going to work.

    I mean, this is a great flop for you and you arent worse than a coinflip against much, but you arent better than a coinflip against anything either. Against a tighter player you want to be playing these flops aggro since you dont really mind getting it in and fold equity will make you monies. Against this guy hes not folding now, and hes not folding when your draws complete either. Id just try to keep it cheap until I hit and then stack him when he has a straight/set/2pair/overpair/TPTK, or fold if I miss.

    Also

    He must put me on 98ss, KQss, TT-QQ and maybe QJss,KJss,AJss.
    Hes a 30/8. Hes putting you on either "Hes bluffing" or "Fuck, hes got it". Dont overthink it.
    gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.

    bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
  4. #4
    rpm's Avatar
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    i would tend to react as you did and play it super aggro as we flip with almost every hand in villain's range so if he ever folds any then we get +ev. BUT in light of surviva and pelion's comments it seems true that he doesn't fold much of his range, and is a 30/8 at 10nl and is highly like to pay you off. i think smoothing the flop is optimal.
  5. #5
    Agree with the above responses. His range is uber strong and we've called for implied odds (to stack him when we make our hand) so just call and play perfectly against him since he's incapable of folding his strong range regardless of whether a spade falls or whatever.

    Turn is really bad; think of it this way:

    1. Shoving turn = a loss of $7.38 when we miss and a profit of $7.38 when
    we hit.

    2. Calling turn = a loss of $3 when we miss and a profit of $7.38 when we hit.

    In this light I don't think it requires anymore thought - we just don't have any fold equity here - he's never calling your raise on the flop in a 3-bet pot with AK then donk/folding the turn.
  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by surviva316
    we're playing against a station.
    Actually, I don't agree with that. As I wrote above, the villain was fairly aggressive post flop. But,

    Quote Originally Posted by surviva316
    what is he ever folding to your 1/3 PSB shove?!?!?!
    This is the exect same question I asked to myself right after the hand. How can I expact any fold equity while villain only needs ~20% equity to call?

    While in the hand I was talking to myself something like "From villains point of view it must be very very hard to call the turn with AsKs because in addition to QQ he must throw some suited spades combos in my range to be break even. And its very hard for him to do so because he is the one who is holding both As and Ks... And with QQ he only breaks even as well."

    But probably I was overthinking as Pelion said. And this
    Quote Originally Posted by Carroters
    Turn is really bad; think of it this way:

    1. Shoving turn = a loss of $7.38 when we miss and a profit of $7.38 when
    we hit.

    2. Calling turn = a loss of $3 when we miss and a profit of $7.38 when we hit.
    gives a clear picture.


    QQ+ is 18 combos and AsKs is 1 combo, so

    When we bet all-in for 7.38;
    He folds 1/19 = ~5% of the time... 18.68 * 0.05 = ~0.93
    When he calls we have ~30% of equity agaist QQ+ (Happens 95% of the time)... 23.06 * 0.30 = ~6.92 * 0.95 = ~6.57
    Since we invest 7.38 our EV must be 6.57 + 0.93 - 7.38 = 0.12

    If we flat for 3;
    We have ~30% of equity against QQ+,AsKs... 14.30 * 0.30 = 4.29
    We invest 3 for calling. Our EV must be 4.29 - 3 = 1.29

    Flatting seems to be the better play if he calls us with QQ but if he folds them then...

    When we bet all-in for 7.38;
    He folds 7/19 = ~35% of the time... 18.68 * 0.35 = ~6.54
    When he calls we have ~30% of equity agaist KK+... 23.06 * 0.30 = ~6.92 * 0.65 = ~4.50
    Since we invest 7.38 our EV must be 6.54 + 4.50 - 7.38 = 3.66

    (Those equities I used above are rounded. I didn't stove them for verification. But they must be very close to exect numbers)

    Actually he folded... But that was probably the tiny AsKs part of his range and I was lucky. I'm convinced that expecting him to fold his QQ is too optimistic and clearly flatting is the best play on the turn...

    Thanks for the replies.
  7. #7
    Actually your first impression that he has QQ+ and AK is fair and good enough reason to call here IP. The only thing I dissagree with all this talk is about FE. With this flop your not in any need of FE with that range. He's not folding any of those hands as you said and folding AK really doesn't help since we are far ahead of AK part of the range that you gave him for his pre flop 3bet. Getting this in on the flop is a great idea, I am not so sure about raising the turn though. He priced you in on your draw vs his range that you assigned and you can call here profitably. I'm not so sure you have the FE to raise this turn vs him and got lucky against the bottom of that range, or he made a NIT fold.
  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by jyms
    Actually your first impression that he has QQ+ and AK is fair and good enough reason to call here IP. The only thing I dissagree with all this talk is about FE. With this flop your not in any need of FE with that range. He's not folding any of those hands as you said and folding AK really doesn't help since we are far ahead of AK part of the range that you gave him for his pre flop 3bet. Getting this in on the flop is a great idea, I am not so sure about raising the turn though. He priced you in on your draw vs his range that you assigned and you can call here profitably. I'm not so sure you have the FE to raise this turn vs him and got lucky against the bottom of that range, or he made a NIT fold.
    We have a great opportunity to get it in with villain drawing near enough dead. Why do you want to turn it into a coinflip? You say getting this in on the flop is a great idea. Why is it?
    gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.

    bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
  9. #9
    Against the tightest range assigned by OP with QQ+, AK we are ahead on the flop. We stand to have our best equity vs him on the flop. Whats our play if a non spade A or K falls and we lose most of our equity? What chance do we have of getting the money in on the turn without either cards falling vs AK?( his most likely holding) Lastly, we have no guarantee he will pay us off if a spade hits.
    Code:
    Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
    
      33,660  games     0.005 secs     6,732,000  games/sec
    
    Board: 4s Jd Ts
    Dead:  
    
    	equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
    Hand 0: 	52.680% 	52.68% 	00.00% 	         17732 	        0.00   { 9s8s }
    Hand 1: 	47.320%  	47.32% 	00.00% 	         15928 	        0.00   { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
  10. #10
    OK let me put it this way. Our EV for getting it in on the flop is like +$1. I think we can do better by calling. Just as a really simplified example, we will hit a spade or a 7 25% of the time on the turn. If we average winning $4 over the times we hit the turn and just fold when we miss we've done better than if we got it in on the flop. If we also play the turn in a +EV way when we miss we only add value to this.

    We stand to have our best equity vs him on the flop.
    That doesnt make sense. Our equity now is 52%. That means our average equity on the turn is 52%, and our average equity on the river is 52%. We stand to sometimes have lower equity on the turn, but we will control the pot and not put a tonne of money in in that case (and sometimes see a free river card). We will sometimes have him drawing almost dead on the turn and then we will control the pot and ensure that a lot of money goes in when we are significantly better than a coinflip.

    You dont beat loose/passive/bad players by getting the best of them in a bunch of coinflips. You beat them by using your position and their tendancy to call a lot (and not raise or fold) to control when the money goes in and to ensure that its when you have a significant equity edge. We dont have that here. We stand a good chance of having it on the turn. Vote for Call!

    Out of position where our ability to control is massively reduced, Id be far more inclined to just get it in and see what happens. Likewise, against a tighter more aggressive player who actually has a folding range here Id be more inclined to get it in on the flop, but in this case Im still hoping he folds and I get to take the $2 or so thats already there.


    edit: Although now you know hes capable of putting in almost all his stack and then folding that changes things...
    I wouldnt expect that fold from many players at all though.
    gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.

    bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
  11. #11
    A quick question for Jym since you said we dont need to think about FE. When you shove and he folds with a pot of $2, are you happy or dissapointed?
    gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.

    bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
  12. #12
    calling is definately more +EV than raising, assuming raising is +EV to begin with.
  13. #13
    Wait, I think there is a misconception on what I said. I said getting it in on this flop vs that range. I never said shove, but I would raise a little more and get it in for sure if he shoves. I am not mad about a fold at all on the flop though since we would be taking down a 26BB pot w/9 high. Being aggressive here only stands to make it easier to be aggressive with flopped sets and straights and 2 pr hands and our air vs nittier players. If we aren't trying to get this in on the flop then what are we trying to get in?

    We need to think about the opponents range here, and in all reality it's not just QQ+, AK. Even if it was an A could kill our action on that 52% EV if an A falls. He could fold AA if a spade falls. We have to be putting in as much as is reasonable against a weaker hand as well. IF opponent has AK what happens when an A falls on the turn if we just call the flop bet? Our equity falls to 26%, a K makes it 24%.
  14. #14
    we don't need to balance our range for stacking off on this flop vs a fish.
  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by jyms
    If we aren't trying to get this in on the flop then what are we trying to get in?
    Well obviously hands with more than 50% equity. AA, JJ, TT, 44, TJ, maybe KK etc. The way you say that its like you think we have the second nuts or something.

    Being aggressive here only stands to make it easier to be aggressive with flopped sets and straights and 2 pr hands and our air vs nittier players.
    What? We are playing against a 30/8. Trying to do anything that remotely resembles balancing your range against someone with massively exploitable tendencies is really self destructive, especially if its so the nits who fold too much can see it and what...stop folding too much?
    gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.

    bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
  16. #16
    I get everything that said about the turn but c'mon, how may calling be more profitable than raising by the flop???? I think flop must definitely be raised.

    By the flop;

    If we flat ->
    3.70 * 0.52 = 1.92 - 1.10 = 0.82 (EV = 0.82)

    If we raise to 3.40 and he calls with all his range (unlikely I think)->
    8.30 * 0.52 = 4.31 - 3.40 = 0.91 (EV = 0.91)

    If we raise to 3.40, he folds all AK except AsKs and calls with all the rest ->
    2.60 * 0.44 = 1.14
    8.30 * 0.49 = 4.06 - 3.40 = 0.66 * 0.56 = 0.37
    1.14 + 0.37 = 1.51 (EV = 1.51)

    If we raise to 3.40, he folds all AK except AsKs, calls with QQ, shoves with the rest and we call ->
    2.60 * 0.44 = 1.14
    8.30 * 0.47 = 3.90 - 3.40 = 0.50 * 0.175 = 0.09
    23.06 * 0.50 = 11.53 - 10.78 = 0.75 * 0.385 = 0.29
    1.14 + 0.09 + 0.29 = 1.52 (EV = 1.52)


    One more thing. Balancing may not be as important as it is at higher stakes. But completely disregarding it because this is 10NL doesn't seem right...
  17. #17
    Your maths compares things that dont make sense. Of course calling is bad when you are going to check down every street once you hit. Try again but get paid something when you hit.
    gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.

    bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
  18. #18

    Default Re: 10NL Semi bluff on 3bet pot. Line check.

    Quote Originally Posted by Belt
    I put him on QQ+, AK after that 3bet, I can't see him defending a wide range here. He plays aggro post so I decided I have enough implied odds and called...
    So you want to get all in as a coinflip according to your range when you could play this hand much more profitably another way, interesting.

    I decided that a raise must make him fold all his AK exept AKss. So a raise must give me 15/34 (~45%) fold equity and if get called I still have lots of pot equity. I thought any sizing less then 3x may seem weak and may encourage him to shove over and anything more seemed useless.
    Here you say you think you can fold out AK but want AK to shove over you. With the amount of money in the pot I believe AK would be correct to shove after you raise rather than fold, but tbh I didn't even bother doing the math on this so maybe you can. Here is the PokerStove output:

    Board: Jd 4s Ts
    Dead:

    equity win tie pots won pots tied
    Hand 0: 43.091% 43.09% 00.00% 6399 0.00 { AcKc, AdKd, AhKh, AKo }
    Hand 1: 56.909% 56.91% 00.00% 8451 0.00 { 9s8s }

    After getting called on the flop now I can only put him on QQ+, AKss. This turn card is good for me after the flop aggression. He must put me on 98ss, KQss, TT-QQ and maybe QJss,KJss,AJss. And this range must weigh through TT,JJ I guess. So a raise must fold out QQ and AKss. AA,KK may call hoping me to hold QQ. On the other hand AA and KK seemed less likely to me at this point since he would shove over the flop with them most of the time but I can't totally discount them from his range anyway. Which meens 7/19 (~35%) fold equity and I still have nearly 30% of equity in the pot if got called. Also his weak bet gave me some courage to calculate that much fold equity while he is getting million to 1 odds to call...[/color]
    He's not even putting you on a hand, you are never folding out any of his range on this turn, ever. Trying to push people off overpairs in a raised pot is one thing by trying to do it in a 3bet pot is absolute spew. If you wanna jam turn it should be at least some sort of scare card for him and not just a blank that changes nothing in regards to board texture (he called flop so he likes his hand, the turn isn't changing that). However, he lead into you again after you raised flop i.e. repping massive strength, he wants the chips in the middle - you have 0 fold equity.

    Here is why calling is better:

    You can take the pot away on the turn when he cbets his air/(AK or w/e) and gives up. When he as a real hand that he isnt folding on the flop, we have tons of outs to improve and we can for sure count on being paid off and anytime he has a hand he's willing to showdown he's almost certianly going to play for stacks.

    I dunno if I explained it well, but vs a fish this is just a pretty intuitive call because our implied odds are great and these guys typically cbet/give up with their air so we'll fold it out on the turn if checked to. As i said before we don't need to balance our range for raising the flop vs a fish. raise your nut hands, call your medium strength ones, fold your air.

    98s is a medium strength hand in this spot relative to villains range and the board texture - call.
  19. #19
    The villein is 30/8 will he have any air in his range on the turn apart from AK?

    If you raise the flop will he fold better hands, since his range is (TT+,AK) I only see him folding AK. Given his stats I'd prefer to call and extract value when we hit our draw since I doubt he folds an over pair.
  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by Micro2Macro
    So you want to get all in as a coinflip according to your range when you could play this hand much more profitably another way, interesting.
    No, I only want to put more money in while I have lots of equity in the pot but I don't mind if he shoves over either. And I want to raise this because I beleive this is the most profitable way. Why would I play the hand this way if I can see a more profitable way to play it?

    I beleive that it will be very hard to get the money in if I hit on the turn when I flat call this flop...


    Quote Originally Posted by Micro2Macro
    Here you say you think you can fold out AK but want AK to shove over you.
    Where did I say such a thing? May be my bad English...

    Quote Originally Posted by Micro2Macro
    With the amount of money in the pot I believe AK would be correct to shove after you raise rather than fold, but tbh I didn't even bother doing the math on this so maybe you can.
    Shoving AK would have been profitable on his part, you are saying I guess. I beleive that it depends on the range he puts me on...


    Quote Originally Posted by Micro2Macro
    He's not even putting you on a hand, you are never folding out any of his range on this turn, ever.
    As I said a couple of times before, I have seen my mistake and I am convinced that calling the turn is much better then a shove. What I'm advocating here is the flop raise...
  21. #21
    dude, if he has TT+, you're getting the rest of the stacks in when you hit. if you had lower implied odds (like if villain actually had something in his range he's not gonna stack off with) and/or if you had much higher fold equity (like if villain were 3b'ing light and was capable of folding to flop raises), then you would raise to cash in on your FE against the weak part of his range, knowing that you're even a slight favorite against the rest of his range.

    in this situation, you hit your dream flop against a dream range to be pitted up against, in dream position against a dream villain, and all you want to do is cash in $1 of equity before counting the rake. if this the max you can profit off of this 1/100 flop, then doing anything but folding preflop was bad. but you CAN profit more than that.

    flat the flop, and if the turn completes a draw, then get the money in. if it blanks on the turn, you'll get a free card every once in a while or he'll bet like 1/4 PSB or osmething because this villain is unlikely to know how to value bet, so take that price to the river. if you then hit the river THEN get the stacks in. eeeeeeeeeezzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzgame
  22. #22
    spoonitnow's Avatar
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    Calling is better than getting it in on the flop because even if his stacking-off range was wide enough that you had a small edge on the flop, you will have a much larger edge by calling and playing the later streets.

    Additionally, the turn his terrible. You're putting the rest of your money in way behind with little to no fold equity.
  23. #23
    He has 3-bet 7 times in 500 hands. Why are you putting AK in his 3bet range here? He has QQ-AA, sometimes JJ because of small sample size.

    Just call and its huge profit. Thinking of raising the flop or turn makes me throw up in my mouth a little.

    Moral of the story: Fish do not fold over pairs or sets. Fold equity is -123913141984% against them.
  24. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by Belt
    No, I only want to put more money in while I have lots of equity in the pot but I don't mind if he shoves over either. And I want to raise this because I beleive this is the most profitable way. Why would I play the hand this way if I can see a more profitable way to play it?
    It's not the most profitable play. You have about 50% equity. which means you win the pot 50% of the time, and your opponent wins the pot 50% of the time. This makes it neutral EV (unless I'm missing something here). This alone should make it clear that calling is way more profitably then raising assuming he's felting his whole range on the flop (QQ+,AK).


    I beleive that it will be very hard to get the money in if I hit on the turn when I flat call this flop...
    Why? His range is very strong, it's a 3bet pot, and if you hit the turn it's not like he's getting away from his hand. He's also a huge fish, what makes you think he's not going to pay you off?

    Shoving AK would have been profitable on his part, you are saying I guess. I beleive that it depends on the range he puts me on...
    I'm saying once you raise the flop, if AK folds vs your particular hand, that's a mistake and you gain. (This is according to the fundamental theorem of poker). So this would make your flop raise slightly +EV if we can fold AK, but calling is superior because we can get him to fold AK on the turn assuming he doesn't double barrel it.

    As I said a couple of times before, I have seen my mistake and I am convinced that calling the turn is much better then a shove. What I'm advocating here is the flop raise...
    I think there's enough explanation in this thread to show you why raising the flop is sub-optimal.
  25. #25
    spoonitnow's Avatar
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    @m2m about when Villain has AK, we also get additional value from calling if the turn is the As or Ks, etc etc.
  26. #26
    bjsaust's Avatar
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    Getting it in on this flop isnt bad. Raising flop and having villain fold isnt bad. Calling is probably better though, as we're getting a great price on a great draw with probably low fold equity, and if we DO hit we still get paid fairly well because we expect him to have a strong range he doesnt want to fold.
    Just dipping my toes back in.
  27. #27
    Quote Originally Posted by spoonitnow
    @m2m about when Villain has AK, we also get additional value from calling if the turn is the As or Ks, etc etc.
    noice
  28. #28
    I've gained a lot from this discussion. Thanks again to everyone for your responses...

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