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10NL Semi bluff on 3bet pot. Line check.
No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Button ($19.85)
SB ($20.61)
BB ($21.47)
UTG ($25.59)
UTG+1 ($5.97)
MP1 ($11.80)
MP2 ($4.35)
Hero (CO) ($11.48)
Preflop: Hero is CO with 9, 8
1 fold, UTG calls $0.10, 3 folds, Hero bets $0.30, 1 fold, SB raises to $0.70, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.40
Guy is 30/8 (3bet %1.5) (~500 hands sample size). It's the first time he 3bets from blinds against a steal. Him 3betting min is not weird at all, he usually min bets when he opens. My sizing was bad, I know. I usually make it 3bb+1 per limper from CO and BTN this 0.30 was a mistake. I put him on QQ+, AK after that 3bet, I can't see him defending a wide range here. He plays aggro post so I decided I have enough implied odds and called...
Flop: ($1.50) 4, J, 10 (2 players)
SB bets $1.10, Hero raises to $3.40, SB calls $2.30
This flop was more than I hope for. His c-bet was expected. I decided that a raise must make him fold all his AK exept AKss. So a raise must give me 15/34 (~45%) fold equity and if get called I still have lots of pot equity. I thought any sizing less then 3x may seem weak and may encourage him to shove over and anything more seemed useless.
Turn: ($8.30) 4 (2 players)
SB bets $3, Hero raises to $7.38 (All-In)
After getting called on the flop now I can only put him on QQ+, AKss. This turn card is good for me after the flop aggression. He must put me on 98ss, KQss, TT-QQ and maybe QJss,KJss,AJss. And this range must weigh through TT,JJ I guess. So a raise must fold out QQ and AKss. AA,KK may call hoping me to hold QQ. On the other hand AA and KK seemed less likely to me at this point since he would shove over the flop with them most of the time but I can't totally discount them from his range anyway. Which meens 7/19 (~35%) fold equity and I still have nearly 30% of equity in the pot if got called. Also his weak bet gave me some courage to calculate that much fold equity while he is getting million to 1 odds to call...
Hoping to hear some criticism about my thought process, range assumption and bet sizing. Thanks in advance...
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