Quote Originally Posted by oskar
I disagree that betting the turn makes hand 1 a bluff. It's unlikely that one of you hit that card, so why not keep betting? According to his stats he probaly has some kind of pocket pair here.
If you're going to c/c the river I think a bet would be a lot better. Just bet 1/3 or something. If he raises you, you can fold in peace, and you get value out of weaker pairs.
I'd like to have some post-flop stats but I think I b/f the flop in hand 2 against this guy.
I really doubt he's calling the turn here much with a weak pp and certianly not the river. To make a general assumption in the absence of knowing how good this player is, based on his stats, I'd assume he wont call the turn on the basis that the ace misses my range a lot because he probably just sees another scary overcard he doesn't like. If I bet this river I really think I'm only getting called/raised by better hands.

On the river I think his range consists mainly of missed draws and made hands stronger than mine, so surely either c/f or c/c is better.

If he has decided to peel the turn with a worse hand that has some showdown value, I doubt he'll call a bet or turn his hand into a bluff. A bet here imo just folds out the stuff we beat in a free showdown, always gets called or raised by better and prevents him bluffing missed fds.