2 Pair river call?

Villain 18/12 3bets 5% over 185 hands.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (UTG) ($17.81)
UTG+1 ($10)
MP1 ($4)
MP2 ($3.85)
MP3 ($11.37)
CO ($15.28)
Button ($12.72)
SB ($7.80)
BB ($10)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, Q
Hero bets $0.40, 6 folds, SB calls $0.35, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.90) 8, 8, Q (2 players)
SB bets $0.20, Hero calls $0.20

Turn: ($1.30) 10 (2 players)
SB bets $0.40, Hero raises to $1, SB calls $0.60

River: ($3.30) 7 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2, SB raises to $6.20 (All-In), Hero ???

Total pot: $15.70 | Rake: $0.71

Wasn't sure whether to float the flop or raise. His cold call range pre doesn't seem too strong on this flop.

When he calls the turn raise i'm thinking maybe KQ/AT/JJ something in that area. His aggression in previous hands put me off thinking TT. I've seen him bet/3bet the nuts a few times.

What is he check shoving this river with?

Oppps!

Curious what the online FR guys think about the river bet...

I wouldnt bet the river imo, not after calling the turn raise. Now fold to the shove.

I just dont get what 8X hands he's going to be calling with in the blinds but there are other hands that are killing you like J9, maybe QT or slowplayed AA, KK

flop and turn bets just shout out "call me/ raise me" ... he is calling A8s,78s,89s almost always in the blinds, sometimes 68s,8Ts, TT,88 could take this line, QQ, AA,KK also even if most times he 3bets . of course he could take this line w/ AQ, KQ,QJ up to river.

river is a fold to shove, but i am checking back river vs this villains most times w/o other reads then stats . his c/c range is going to be KQ,QJ,AQ and value we get from KQ,QJ by betting river doesnt compensate by far the amount we lose to his 8x, QQ, TT, QT.

my opinion is that checking back river is +EV and b/c or b/f river are -EV. there is the case when he bets river and i guess calling that depends on size., but most times i'd fold cause i dont see him valuebetting river w/ anything else but KQ and so calling would be -EV also.

just my opinion.

why tf how does villain EVER have A8s,68s,78s, or X8s in the SB v an UTG open? You have no reads that allow you to say this. After 185 hands we should have some idea of his cold call range in blinds or if he's ccing more IP or something along these lines. We should also have an idea of if he's been doing a lot of this small bet sizing or not(OOP, IP, as pfr, as ccer) ESPECIALLY at micros when we should only be like 9tabling max and taking a tonne of notes or at least paying a good amount of attention to what the fuck is happening.

I'm also very confused why we aren't addressing the reasoning for raising the turn if we aren't going to bet the river. Are we charging flush draws and gutters? If this is why then we aren't raising big enough to charge flush draws. If I am raising for value there is no reason to check the river since villains range is ~88/TT/KQ/QJs and maybe QTs.

Originally Posted by Razvan729

flop and turn bets just shout out "call me/ raise me" ...

lol no, they scream I'm a bitch with a weak range please don't raise me or
they scream I have quads and I have no clue what the fuck to do.

This is why developing reads is key. As a default I would always interpret this as weakness versus most populations.

w/ all the respect, i think its been a long time since you played 2-10nl .... villain has any 8x i said and that line is 8x or stupid Qx.

Originally Posted by Razvan729

w/ all the respect, i think its been a long time since you played 2-10nl .... villain has any 8x i said and that line is 8x or stupid Qx.

Stakes is almost irrelevant, villains 18/12. OP did not give us enough reads so I have to assume in todays games EVEN at 2nl-10nl that an 18/12 villain is semi aware of position and not cold calling the same range in SB as OTB or in the BB as in UTG+1.

Razvan:
I gotta agree with Icanhas......there are very few 8X hands here imo. Maybe A8 but his vpip/pfr gap isnt that strong that he has goofy 8X hands. Its not IMPOSSIBLE that he has some, just unlikely imo.
I find it more likely he has QQ here than 8Q or 8J

Raise flop donk, bet/fold 3 streets, size so worse can call. Villains line and stack size say fish to me so I'm happy to say he has loads of 8x and even moar other shit, to make b/f the best line.
@ yaawn what's all this talk of flush draws?

well then raising turn is purely for value which makes raise turn to check river silly. He has very few 8x. It's semi-retarded to think otherwise.

I mean top 18% of hands doesn't even include 8x type shit so I have no clue why we would throw it his range in the position where someone should be cold calling the least.

edit: If you are assuming people are cold calling 8x in this position v utg and cold calling 8x(maybe 87s/98s CO/OTB) at all v UTG open when their vip/pfr gap is only 6% then you have some huge problems to address before you even sit at the table.

ok, then pls give your range for him calling preflop, for flop bet and turn b/c. leave the river , just curios about what you think he's calling pre, donk flop and b/c river if he hasnt 8x and he is 3betting QQ pre.

vinland thought about QT and J9, so if he has these, why would he not have 78s,89s, T8s?


so , i sure need to learn a lot more, so icanhas, in your opinion, what does a 18/12 call in SB vs a UTG open?

Originally Posted by Razvan729

so , i sure need to learn a lot more, so icanhas, in your opinion, what does a 18/12 call in SB vs a UTG open?

I don't have a fucking clue cause we have no relevant reads besides vpip/pfr gap.

Probably like QQ(a non zero %), JJ(nearly 100%), 22-TT, All suited broadways but not all of them 100% so something like KQs 100%, KJs/QJs/JTs 75%, KT/QTs 50%, AKo, AQo, AJo, KQo.

This is the widest I would give him and this is pretty generous. Knowing if this guy is a winner or not will be pretty huge in determining a more accurate range. Adding this to our reads we should have acquired and we should be able to be pretty accurate.

His flop donk range can be ANYTHING in his range, so can his turn donk range because we have NO postflop reads.

You have to put into consideration that a person flatting in the blinds vs an UTG open would probably be a lot tighter than one flatting vs a late position steal. I don't think villain would have many 8x hands nor J9/QT hands in his range here. The range that yAAwn gave above is already wider than what I think villain would be flatting w/ in this position. We could give him a few combos of 8x hands, but it would be much less than you give a relative unknown credit for.

I think I'd raise the flop for value and as played, I would be betting the river something like 1/4-1/2 pot for value as well.

Originally Posted by Icanhastreebet

I don't have a fucking clue cause we have no relevant reads besides vpip/pfr gap.

Probably like QQ(a non zero %), JJ(nearly 100%), 22-TT, All suited broadways but not all of them 100% so something like KQs 100%, KJs/QJs/JTs 75%, KT/QTs 50%, AKo, AQo, AJo, KQo.

His flop donk range can be ANYTHING in his range, so can his turn donk range because we have NO postflop reads.

considering all this you said, isnt it a reason more to check back the river and aquire some info since we have none about his postflop play? if we see he has played like this KQ, QJs, AQ, QTs, JTs, KTs,JJ,99 then next time we can make a value bet w/ KK+, AQ,KQ since there is the possibility to have our bet getting called by enough worse to make the bet +EV.
also we can get cheap the info on the river about his preflop calling range if he has any 8x and how he plays them w/o risking now of getting c/r by bluffs or worst holdings w/ no other info about villain.
once we aquire this info now by checking back river we can make better decisions later vs this guy, so even if we lose some value now by checking back river, we can inrease our profit vs this guy w/ the info we get.


given the preflop range you gave, how should we play the flop? raise for value and reduce his range to QT,QJ,KQ an fold his 99-JJ and all other air or just call the monkey flop bet and keep his range wide since we are big favourits vs his non 8x range and he can spew some more with a wider range on turn?
turn, should we raise/fold and again reduce his range to AQ+ or we can hope to charge his KQ,KJ( for OESD) , QJ,JJ,JT ( hoping for a 9 gutshot),99 ( for a J gutshout), his non beliver KTs sometimes or should we just call his turn bet and hope he'd fire river again w/ worse Qx, Tx, JJ and bet when he checks hoping he's calling worse?

Originally Posted by Razvan729

considering all this you said, isnt it a reason more to check back the river and aquire some info since we have none about his postflop play? if we see he has played like this KQ, QJs, AQ, QTs, JTs, KTs,JJ,99 then next time we can make a value bet w/ KK+, AQ,KQ since there is the possibility to have our bet getting called by enough worse to make the bet +EV.
also we can get cheap the info on the river about his preflop calling range if he has any 8x and how he plays them w/o risking now of getting c/r by bluffs or worst holdings w/ no other info about villain.
once we aquire this info now by checking back river we can make better decisions later vs this guy, so even if we lose some value now by checking back river, we can inrease our profit vs this guy w/ the info we get.

But we can get value now. We're missing value if we don't bet imo.

Originally Posted by ColdDecked

But we can get value now. We're missing value if we don't bet imo.

we can get value from what? KQ,QJ,JJ,99,KT,JT? any decent player would fold these on the turn and if he doesnt fold these on turn vs our raise hoping to make 2pair or straight, then he will surely c/f river cause we cant value bet river w/ worse then AQ. so his river c/c range should be AQ,QT and c/r 88,TT.

any dumbass player would probably c/c river w/ those hands, but since we have no reads and his stats dont show him as a dumbass player, we can assume he is folding them on river just like we assumed he has no 8x pre, so we have no hands to value bet in his range.

Still not sure whether in the long run bet/fold or bet/call on the river is the best play. This particular hand I made the call but just wasn't sure how often a player has a monster the way this hand played or it's just some last ditch effort to try and convince me to fold.

w/o reads he can take this line to river w/ KQ,QJ and he is c/cing these on river, better check back river and get the info you need. and like icanhas said, take more notes and pay more attention to SD hands.

You can size the river to get worst to call pretty much 100% of the time. Even a winner at this stake will be calling way too much if you size river properly. I wouldn't take a showdown because his river c/r or c/f is going to tell us a tonne anyway. Also giving up obvious +eV bets for future eV is probably not going to be with it at a stake with such a massive player pool.

FYI I would call flop/turn/raise river if he bets small again, bet when checked to at any point. As played I would still bet river like 1/3 pot.

We shouldn't shy away from thin value bets. We'd be missing a ton of value if we keep passing up opportunities to make +EV bets. The flop bet was small and the turn raise isn't huge, so it's quite possible that villain called with hands like pair+draw or worse Qx. If we bet small, like somewhere ~1/4 to 1/2 pot, I'm sure that villain would call with those hands a decent percentage of the time.

Like yAAwn said, micros has huge player pools, and it's quite possible that you won't run into this villain ever again. Most of the time, when you can get value now, you should take it now rather than later.

yAAwn raises another great point in that his non-showdowns in this spot would tell us a lot about the villain as well. We don't have to take it to showdown in order for us to take notes on the villain, and we may actually learn more by betting instead.