25nl KJs vs nit reg

Villain is 11/3 nit reg, platinum star. 3% 3bet over 360 hands. Table is tight, BB is a fish. What other hands are in his range other than AQ, QQ, JJ and a rare 88? Maybe AA but it's doubtful. I tanked forever. In b4 the fold pre / thread comments.

$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
Hero (UTG) ($25.35)
UTG+1 ($25.89)
CO ($13.23)
BTN ($26)
SB ($21.41)
BB ($12.84)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 6 players) Hero is UTG
Hero raises to $0.75, 3 folds, SB calls $0.65, 1 fold

Flop: ($1.75, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.20, SB raises to $3.23, Hero calls $2.03

Turn: ($8.21, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $5.60, SB calls $5.60

River: ($18.41, 2 players)
SB bets $11.83, Hero tanks

Originally Posted by StarGrinder

Villain is 11/3 nit reg

Fold flop?

Pretty clear he check raised flop with a set, and played cautious on turn, and got there on the river. Sucks, but easy fold... Nothing else makes sense except a boat+.

edit: WTF is this? SB checks, Hero bets $5.60, SB calls $4.60

he can't have AhQh. Maybe have Th9h? or 7h6h?

Just noticed the flush draw. I think you can now fold this.

Can't see that type on AhXh with X<=T. Besides even if he had a nut flush draw, he probably wouldn't raise it. Fold flop imo, although you could argue that you have implied odds to draw to a flush because he won't be able to lay down a set when you hit (which indeed he didn't). But that's a stretch imo because you probably don't have good enough reads to know beforehand that he will continue with his set when you hit, plus he has decent chances to boat up on you. So flop is a fold for me (but then, I am a nit).

As played obviously fold river. There is now nothing in his range that you beat, even if he had a rare nut flush.

Fold flop is what I vote for. I also voted for Obama...

Calling the flop is fine imo as long as you are not going broke when the board pairs - ur getting like 3:1 on a call and are going to get paid if you spike a heart. QJ and 9Ts could be in his range on the flop too so I don't think we're up against sets exclusively.

Once you hit your flush on the turn bet bigger man. These 11/3 guys don't raise the flop without a monster and just because he is slowing down on the turn because the flush card hits doesn't mean he's going to fold to a big bet. It means he's gonna c/c cuz he wants to showdown his 2pair, set or straight even if you do have the flush because 11/3's don't bet/fold a set here.

River is an easy fold imo.

can't fold flop, we got in 22bbs on the turn after getting like 3:1 on the flop

our draw is never dominated, AThh the only hand and he probably doesn't even call that PF

river we're clearly not folding, w/e call it off and reload, nowhere deep enough to make us fold here

How are you so sure we have implied odds to call the flop vs his set? If he is such a nit he may very well fold to a turn bet when the flush card hits (OK, he didn't but that's hindsight).

As played, I am never calling the river. What else than a boat does he do that with?

imo:
call flop (folding is absolutely absurd)
bet/fold ~$7 on turn
fold river

Thanks guys. I timed out and folded the river. Just felt like a Hellmuth-like nitty laydown at the time but I felt he really only plays sets this way, and maybe AKs or AQs but the Kh and Qh are out. Not sure what happened with the HH and where villain got an extra dollar in his stack. I'll fix it.

Spenda is the only one who thinks the river is not a clear fold. Considering he's one of the best players in the forums, I'm curious what he'd include in his range here. I couldn't come up with one hand I beat on the river except for an oddly played AA. I'd include ATh or even T9h before AA though and an 11/3 nit isn't playing T9s vs UTG oop very often tho.

Originally Posted by rpm

imo:
call flop (folding is absolutely absurd)
bet/fold ~$7 on turn
fold river

why would we ever fold turn? we block most of his AhXh combos and we can easily get value from sets and Th9h

even vs QQ,JJ,88,AhTh,Ah9h,Ah7h,Ah6h,Ah5h,Ah3h,Ah2h,Th9h we have 44% and i doubt hes calling iso's oop a lot with A5s

more like QQ-JJ,88,AhTh,Ah9h,Ah2h,Th9h and we still have 60%

ez fold on river imo tho

I understand where you guys are coming from and applaud you for thinking about his range deep enough to realize we're generally in poor shape against it on the end but I'm just not folding here getting nearly 3:1.

Do not fold the flop. Bet at least 6.50 on the turn. Fold river easily.

Originally Posted by chatzilla

why would we ever fold turn? we block most of his AhXh combos and we can easily get value from sets and Th9h

even vs QQ,JJ,88,AhTh,Ah9h,Ah7h,Ah6h,Ah5h,Ah3h,Ah2h,Th9h we have 44% and i doubt hes calling iso's oop a lot with A5s

more like QQ-JJ,88,AhTh,Ah9h,Ah2h,Th9h and we still have 60%

ez fold on river imo tho

it's probably bad, but i just couldn't see a nit check/raising again OTT without the stone cold nuts. however, now i think about it, he probably would do it some % with sets because he doesn't know wtf to do with them. i take my comment back. you're right about him having very few possible flush combos.

lol :P

shove turn

calll flop obv.
bet turn bigger.

<ZwiFTi> if its so obvious this guy has a set then why aint we shipping turn
<ZwiFTi> also, lol at B/F turn

I thought same ting as DC and bikes - and i make up my line before reading analysis so go me

Originally Posted by mbiz

I thought same ting as DC and bikes - and i make up my line before reading analysis so go me

and me?

Originally Posted by daven

and me?

definately, to whichever half of my sentence you are referring to.

How often do we think an 11/3 with a set is folding the turn to a 2x pot shove? I have to make a certain amount on the turn to make the flop call profitable, and I definitely don't want him to fold. <--- this is what I was thinking OTT. I bet enough to get my return back from the flop call and to have an easy river shove. So I'm just going to go ahead and assume a nit is calling with a set whether I shove the turn or not. His WTSD was ~16% though, so hell I dunno.

WHY DO WE WANT TO GIVE HIM A CHANCE TO FOLD HIS SET WHEN WE CAN PLAY THE TURN AND RIVER PERFECTLY?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!

i really hate shipping the turn as some people have suggested.
A nit will prob fold his set, which he so so obviously has here (most likely JJ), to a turn ship.
as has already been said, bet turn bigger; now fold river.

why does he have to have a set, all he did was c/r the flop

people are being jaded by the subsequent action, if you just stop the action after the flop c/r I guarantee no one has his range as just QQ,JJ,88

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

why does he have to have a set, all he did was c/r the flop

people are being jaded by the subsequent action, if you just stop the action after the flop c/r I guarantee no one has his range as just QQ,JJ,88

this i wondered as well.


point still stands of why are we giving him the chance to play perfectly when we ourselves can play this spot perfectly.

what else is he betting this river with?
i mean, i suppose he can have some combo draws in his range on the flop and hes leading the river with a flush.

edit: yeah i agree spenda

he can have some flushes that hes betting here that arent raising the turn