2nl QQ K hits on turn.

Sorry guys no stats on villain. I guess I'm more interested in what people's usual thinking is when they get an overcard to their nice pp on the turn or river.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($4.25)
Hero (BB) ($2.50)
UTG ($0.79)
UTG+1 ($5.03)
MP1 ($4.44)
Villain (MP2) ($1.83)
CO ($2.31)
Button ($1.71)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q, Q
3 folds, Villain calls $0.02, 1 fold, Button calls $0.02, 1 fold, Hero raises to $0.12, Villain calls $0.10, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.27) 8, 10, 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.20, Villain calls $0.20

Turn: ($0.67) K (2 players)
Hero checks, Villain bets $0.30

Hero?

I'm a little torn here. I can't decide whether:

a) He's called made a poor call on the flop with Kx hoping to get lucky and has...

or

b) He's drawing to the club flush (which makes sense of his call on the flop), he sees the K and takes my check as a sign of weakness.

or

c) Neither of the above.

Should I have bet the turn?

Any help very much appreciated.

I'm pretty new, but I'll give this a shot.

On a board that drawish, I think you have to make your flop bet bigger, like .25-.30. In fact, just about all of villian's range that is calling .20 here is also calling .30, in my opinion. Don't worry about blowing those pocket 5s out of the pot... they will call you at these stakes. I'm not terribly worried about the turn, and I like betting 1/2 pot to 2/3 pot there to continue charging drawing hands. Another reason I like betting the turn is that there are going to be a ton of rivers we don't like, so we better get our value here. That is, any card 5-J is completing straight draws or tripping up pairs, any club is completing a flush, and A is another over to our hand. About the only river cards you really like are 2-4 non-club, Q, or K. So put the chips in now. Then you have to check/call most river bets.

As played, you definitely can't fold to his turn bet without a good read. A check/raise/fold (bet/fold or check/re-evaluate river) might even be good, but I think check/call (check/call most river bets) is OK too if you'd rather keep the pot smaller. He could easily be doing this with J9, T9, AT, club draw, 99, 77, 98, 87, etc. Basically his whole range.

i would bet the turn.

he only hits when he has Kx, two pair and maaaaaaybe K9.

Whoops, forgot to address this part and I think I should:

Originally Posted by Monsieur_chat

I'm a little torn here. I can't decide whether:

a) He's called made a poor call on the flop with Kx hoping to get lucky and has...

Very possible, but oh well. A lot of people at these stakes will call flop bets with overs if they think you're bluffing (apparently they don't realize that you're probably bluffing with better overs). As long as you charge him enough on the flop (as you did, but you could even bet full pot), this isn't really something to worry about.

Originally Posted by Monsieur_chat

b) He's drawing to the club flush (which makes sense of his call on the flop), he sees the K and takes my check as a sign of weakness.

A lot of people drawing to the club flush will check behind here. A gutshot might bet here. A pair of 10s almost definitely bets here. A combo pair + draw of some sort probably bets here. They are all thinking, "I knew this guy was bluffing on the flop. I probably have the best hand, but I don't like it a lot, so I'll just bet a little bit," or, "I knew this guy was bluffing on the flop. Since he checked here, I can bet a little bit and he'll fold." Don't give these tiny bets much credit unless you have air (note: AQ on this board might not even be considered air depending on your opponent).

Originally Posted by Monsieur_chat

c) Neither of the above.

Yep, very possible. See above.

Remember, these players are BAD. He could easily have 44 here and honestly believe he has the best hand.

Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

he only hits when he has Kx, two pair and maaaaaaybe K9.

don't be surprised when he shows up with something stupid like AK since this is NL2

Fantastic replies, many many thanks guys.

Originally Posted by iopq

don't be surprised when he shows up with something stupid like AK since this is NL2

I totally agree here. Hell, KQ and KJ wouldn't even surprise me. I still don't think we can let that affect our turn decision too much, especially if we charge these types of hands enough on the flop.

Originally Posted by Monsieur_chat

Fantastic replies, many many thanks guys.

You're quite welcome. You should probably edit your first post and change the subject to say "2nl QQ K hits on turn". It's great that you are making descriptive subject titles, just make sure they're accurate :P. If you'd like, "2nl QQ drawish flop, K hits on turn" would be even more information.

Oops. Must have been on autopilot.

Originally Posted by iopq

Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

he only hits when he has Kx, two pair and maaaaaaybe K9.

don't be surprised when he shows up with something stupid like AK since this is NL2

alright, k9 got 6 a's in maybe. How many a's does AK/KQ get?

Since it has one less potential out, maybe one more a?

AK is more combinations, but it's possible this particular villain actually raises AK

but he can still maaaaaaaaaaaaybe have AK
and he can still maaaaaaaybe have KQ since KQ is not as pretty so it's more likely

anyway, b/f turn sound good? I almost never b/f turn but on such a drawy board it's almost mandatory

why are we still so worried about the K? and, why didnt we block the turn to see how much he liked his Krag? why cant this be a flush draw, say A8, making a semibluff at the pot?

Originally Posted by Chopper

why are we still so worried about the K? and, why didnt we block the turn to see how much he liked his Krag? why cant this be a flush draw, say A8, making a semibluff at the pot?

because the villain has leverage
his 1/2 bet is not to showdown
we still have to worry about a river bet
if he has a king, and we're wrong, we're not just paying 30 cents to see a showdown, we're paying more like a dollar for a 67 cent pot since he can pot-sized shove on the river

so we have to be right more than 50% of the time if he fires on the river with a king every time and with a busted draw some of the time

I would take a chance and bet half your "stack" at the turn and then you can se if he is calling or reraising...

if he just calls, go allin, not much cash to loose there, if he raises, hmm let me see, i would go allin

Remember, thats only my way to play that hand, dont think its the correct...

Riiiight...