44 vs slowplayed AA

Are you guys also seeing the "trappy chappies" more and more at the micros? Seems to happen to me several times a day now, both in tourneys and cash games... Should I start to include big pairs (maybe discounted) into any unknown limp/caller's range??

In the hand below, villain is 32/18/1.25 and no 3-bet over 22 hands. I would have bet the river to get value from all his aces, and it is the fact that it was a flush card that made me tip the other way. Against a {77,55,AKs,AsQs,AsJs,AsTs,As9s,As8s,A7s,As6s,A5s-A4s,As3s,As2s,AKo,A7o,A5o-A4o} turn continuing range I am a favorite. But I was finding it weird that a strong A or two pairs hadn't raised me by now, especially with the flush draw on the board. If I remove all the AK except AsKs, and all the two pairs except As5s from the range then I am 100% beat. When shown a set, I would expect it to be 5's or 7's, rarely A's or K's...

I am still glad that he missed a lot of value with his ugly slowplay. Had he raised the turn, I would have stacked off on the spot.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop | saw showdown

Villain (SB) ($1.58)
BB ($2.47)
UTG ($2.59)
UTG+1 ($2)
MP1 ($0.37)
MP2 ($1.98)
CO ($3.58)
Hero (Button) ($2.28)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 4, 4
3 folds, MP2 calls $0.02, 1 fold, Hero bets $0.10, Villain calls $0.09, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.24) 7, A, 5 (2 players)
Villain checks, Hero bets $0.18, Villain calls $0.18

Turn: ($0.60) 4 (2 players)
Villain checks, Hero bets $0.46, Villain calls $0.46

River: ($1.52) K (2 players)
Villain checks, Hero checks

Total pot: $1.52 | Rake: $0.10

Results:
Hero had 4, 4 (three of a kind, fours).
Villain had A, A (three of a kind, Aces).
Outcome: Villain won $1.42

i see lots of AA limped in UTG or UTG+1 at 2nl and 5nl but rarely MP. lucky his preflop passivity carries over to the flop turn and river or you would have lost 79bbs of your bankroll

A lot of people are far more passive than they should be.

Out of curiosity: What was your plan had he bet the river?

Also, I hope you tagged a note on this guy.

Originally Posted by tomato paste carnage

A lot of people are far more passive than they should be.

Out of curiosity: What was your plan had he bet the river?

Also, I hope you tagged a note on this guy.

Given the range I give him after his turn call-but-not-raise, I can only fold to a river bet.

I am sure he checked the river much more because he thought I was going to bet again than because he was afraid of the flush.

The guy is not as passive as many, he has a 18% PFR! He just seems to like to trap with his big hands. And yes, I definitely have a note on him (made just before he made a runner with my money right after the hand!) but at 2NL the chances of us sitting at the same table again are slim to none...

what range do you think he's calling a river shove with?

river check is a leak imo

for both players

Originally Posted by eragotte

river check is a leak imo

for both players

Originally Posted by eragotte

river check is a leak imo

for both players

So that means you think my ranges are totally wrong here. Maybe I am too pessimistic, but it was the fourth time I got "set up" that way in the same evening (twice in SNG's, once in a tourney, and then now). Something felt fishy there (maybe me??).

What do you think he is check/calling all the way with? What range do you put him on after the turn and river check and why? Villain is 32/18/1.25 over 22 hands, so he certainly is capable of betting/raising.

Originally Posted by surviva316

what range do you think he's calling a river shove with?

mmh, if my range is correct, then I would say he is calling with everything he has. I can't see him laying down a set, or even two pairs or a strong ace if these were still in his range.

Same question as above, you seem to think that the ranges I put him on are way off, which they might well be. What do you put him on to warrant a shove? Which hands that I beat are calling, and which hands that beat me are folding? Is the shove trying to represent a flush?

the river is a pretty darn easy value shove

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

the river is a pretty darn easy value shove

You are a better and more experienced player than I am, so I am sure you are right.

However, I don't get what he is calling a river shove with that I beat. non spades AK? A7? A5? A4?... AQ??? If that is what he has, why did he not bet/raise this earlier on this board???

Let's try to put togather an actually range street by street.

Villains calling prf range is wide. 22+ any suited connector, likely any broadway, KK+,AK not very likely, you can remove them safely. I know that isn't what happened here, which is why you don't post results. Take this example and work it street by street and run pokerstove on it. See how it looks. This game isn't about being right, it is about making the most money possible, which sometimes means you are going get crushed when someone pulls a weird line. But overall you are going to give up so much value over the std player or the dumb players that worry about sniffing out set over set is just not worth it at this level just yet.

!luck

id have hands down to like A10 and even partial A9 in his calling range sometimes... its 2nl..

Something felt fishy there (maybe me??).

this is good and i really believe its good to follow your gut, tons of things that u cant even analyze might make u feel very strongly one way or another n u jus know your beat. if thats the case, surre check, but on average its a bad check, if ur gut is telling u to check a lot then ur losing tons of value, if this is 1/30 times then fine

Mind that I usually do not post results, but the initial purpose of my post was not to analyse the hand, it was a request for comments about the frequency of people slowplaying big pairs at the micros. That is why I posted the results.

OK, range exercise:

Preflop: Let's say he calls a button raise with all his VPIP range (about 32%), and let's exclude QQ+, AK which he supposedly would reraise. That is about {22-JJ,A2s-AQs,K7s+,Q8s+,J9s+,86s+,76s+,A2o-AQo,K8o+,Q9o+,J9o+,T9o}.

Flop: his check means nothing, he may check to the raiser with a good hand or nothing, so his range is unchanged after his check (personally I might donk some of my hands here, but many people don't do that). Note that I have seen him minraise a flop bet before in a limped pot, and that in a previous hand I raised in the SB, he called and he folded to my cbet. This tells me that he is capable of betting, raising and folding. Not a totally retarded calling station. He calls my cbet on this Axx flop. This does not yet means that he necessarily has an A, but I can't see him floating with total air either because that A hits my range hard. Let's say he continues with all his sets, all his pairs and straight draws. Let's even say he just calls and does not raise his sets, two pairs and AQ-AJ hands (he slowplays), although even at this stage it is already dumb not to, and since I saw him minraise on the flop before, I don't see why he would not raise here with this type of hand. So if he always calls and never raises with all his range (I honestly doubt it), then his range after his flop call is {22-JJ, A2s-AQs,86s,76s,A2o-AQo} (76s gives him a pair of 7's).

Turn: he checks the turn, and I bet again and he snap calls. He does not hesitate, and he does not raise. What does that tell me? Well if he just has an A with a doubtful kicker, at this stage, he should be seriously worried about calling another 3/4 pot bet. If he has a strong A or two pairs or a set or a straight, it is asking for a lot of trouble not to raise them now, with a board that hit his opp's range on the flop and now has a f*ckton more draws on it. I do accept that people like to slowplay their strong hands, so I will keep the sets and straight in his calling range. It seems reasonable to me to exclude all two pairs and strong aces. These would have raised, unless *maybe* he has suited spades in the hole. He may also have picked up an open ended straight draw which he is willing to pay a very wrong price for, and I will also keep all the pocket pairs in his range, as he may still be hoping to hit his two outer and stack me. I also keep all his weaker aces hoping to make two pairs. So range: {22-JJ,As4s,As5s,As7s,86s,67s,A2s-A3s,A6s,A8s-ATs,A2o-A3o,A6o,A8o-ATo}

River: Ks. He checks, and I don't see that it changes his range. To me, either he slowplays, or he gives up on his draws. If I stack off here, I absolutely cannot see him calling a shove with {A8o-ATo,A6o,A2o-A3o}, non spades {A8s-ATs,A6s,A2s-A3s} or any pocket pair that did not make a set. His 67s is also unimproved: he does not call with that. All the rest of his range (suited spades aces, sets and straight) beats me. So I can't find a reason to bet here.

Alternate river:

If he just called the flop and turn with his two pairs and AQ-AJ hands, and if he will call a river shove with these (two big ifs if you ask me), then:

There are 9 combos of A7, 8 non suited spades combos of A5, and 3 combos of A4, 11 non suited spades combos of AQ and 11 non suited spades combos of AJ. Total 42 combos that I could bet and get value from.

Then the part of his range that crushes me is {55,77,AsQs-As2s,6s7s,86s} and that is 3+3+11+1+4 = 22 combos.

The rest folds.

So in that case, since there are more hands that I can bet and get value from than hands that beat me, I should bet.

If you read until here, I spent a lot if time doing this, so please let me know what you think about the ranges and the analysis.

Just a note to help you with your ranges. Because he called the flop and turn, flopped sets will be a bit less likely because he would often raise those hands.

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Just a note to help you with your ranges. Because he called the flop and turn, flopped sets will be a bit less likely because he would often raise those hands.

I agree, but:
1) as you said we can discount them a bit but I would not remove them altogether (people like to slowplay sets at 2NL)
2) if he bets or raises his sets, then we have to agree that he also bets or raises his two pairs and strong aces hands. No?

quick calls mean weakness much more often then strength. If you have some great read on this guy so you can say he only has better or folds then fine, do what you want but this is a standard shove. Your range doesn't include nearly enough Axs and gives him to much credit on what he folds.

Originally Posted by eragotte

quick calls mean weakness much more often then strength. If you have some great read on this guy so you can say he only has better or folds then fine, do what you want but this is a standard shove. Your range doesn't include nearly enough Axs and gives him to much credit on what he folds.

Point taken. Of course it's true I did not analyze all that in such detail in play. It was more a gut feeling on the moment against this particular opponent. I normally don't hesitate to put all my chips in the middle with my sets (bar obvious spots like 4 to a flush on the board).

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

the river is a pretty darn easy value shove

So just to clarify, you're saying that even though here he would have lost half of his stack, he should have shoved? And the reason is because it would make the most money a certain number of times out of 100 (say).

Not being sarcastic, just making sure that this is what ur saying and that this is the rationale behind the decisions of good players.

Putting your opponents on ranges is important, but you can also overthink things as I see a lot of people doing in this thread.

This is the micros, villain limp called and you have a set on a relatively uncoordinated Ace high board with only a BD flush that got there. Checking the river is a huge mistake longterm. He can call with all sorts of aces and garbage two pair. It's an easy shove.

While it might be appropriate to add big pairs into limp callers ranges,you aren't getting set over setted enough to have to start folding or checking sets in fear of bigger ones.

Originally Posted by daviddem

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Just a note to help you with your ranges. Because he called the flop and turn, flopped sets will be a bit less likely because he would often raise those hands.

I agree, but:
1) as you said we can discount them a bit but I would not remove them altogether (people like to slowplay sets at 2NL)
2) if he bets or raises his sets, then we have to agree that he also bets or raises his two pairs and strong aces hands. No?

Right.

Originally Posted by Ravageur

Putting your opponents on ranges is important, but you can also overthink things as I see a lot of people doing in this thread.

This is the micros, villain limp called and you have a set on a relatively uncoordinated Ace high board with only a BD flush that got there. Checking the river is a huge mistake longterm. He can call with all sorts of aces and garbage two pair. It's an easy shove.

While it might be appropriate to add big pairs into limp callers ranges,you aren't getting set over setted enough to have to start folding or checking sets in fear of bigger ones.

/thread

Never slow play AA.. you deserve it

Originally Posted by Enviropoker

Never slow play AA.. you deserve it

I think you are confused. It was no OP that slowplayed AA. It was Vil that did.
And OP there is some good advice here from Spoon and the guys. It is played fine except for the river check.

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

the river is a pretty darn easy value shove

this +1000

Originally Posted by EasyPoker

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

the river is a pretty darn easy value shove

So just to clarify, you're saying that even though here he would have lost half of his stack, he should have shoved? And the reason is because it would make the most money a certain number of times out of 100 (say).

Not being sarcastic, just making sure that this is what ur saying and that this is the rationale behind the decisions of good players.

yea can't win em all, we're just expecting to get called by worse hands more often than by better ones.

I'll just comment on the river for now. Both checks were terrible. Not sure what the dude with AA was thinking . Once he checks though a river bet is mandatory. Checking gives up tons of expected ev. I think his calling range to a shove is any flush any set and any 2 pair type hands. I think he also calls of with any ace and lots of kings.

The chance of either of you having the flush here isn't all that high. It would be a mistake for either of you to fold river to a bet with any reasonable hand.

Don't play 44 anynmore.I had the same situation twice with trips 4 against overtrips
Last card was your lucky card because you were scared of flush

Def this is a very clear valuebet on river..