Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Bucket View Post
Checking river seems like a huge loss of value for two reasons.

1. As you said some non 0% of the time he will lead his flushes. For this reason his flush combos should be discounted. Ie. lets say a villain that we have this amount of information on would lead his flushes 30% of the time. If this were the case to find the proper amount of equity we have against his range we would multiply the number of combos of flushes by .7 (100%-30%).

2. I see know reason why weaker aces would not be in his calling range. Even if this villain would fold A4 some percent of the time, you don't have information to tell you he would every time. Also you obviously see him having these hands in his range because you included A5 in his shove calling range.


Finally i feel you cannot take sets and 2 pairs out of his range because lol sample for AF. Still, its going to be a shove due to all the A2-AT combos you left out of his calling range.
Just to be clear, I put A5 in his range because the 5 came on the river, so he wouldn't have had an opportunity to raise his two pairs before that (OK, you could argue that he would sometimes lead out the river with two pairs).

Still not sure he calls a shove without having a flush because if I shove, I have one 100% of the time, don't I? I mean altogether it would be really retarded from him to stack off here with A2 following the action and on this board.

But you're probably right that I am being too conservative. As you said he leads his flushes a non zero % of the time, and he may well be unable to fold TPGK.

So here is a calling range with all the Ax and two pairs and flopped sets. Even without discounting the flushes, I get 57% equity, obv. more if I discount them:
AA,TT,77,A2s+,KhQh,KhJh,KhTh,QhJh,QhTh,JhTh,Th9h,9 h8h,A2o+