66 CO+1 - putting opponent on a hand

Originally Posted by frjd2

For some reason against this opponent I think firing the second barrel is the better option as I just can't see him connecting with this board although he possibly hit the turn I think the only reason he called the flop bet is because he thought that I too had nothing. Bad reasoning?

i wouldn't go ahead and make such assumptions without reads. imo his flop calling range is largely going to be 44-QQ, the only one of these which folds on the turn is probably 55 (which you have beat and is unlikely to try to bluff you because it has perceived SD value). if we pretend that we know for fact that his range is 44-QQ, then on the turn his range is

44 (1)
55 (6)
66 (1)
77 (3)
88 (6)
99 (3)
TT-QQ (18)
total of 38 combinations

of these 38 combinations, probably only 55 folds. this means your opponent is folding 6/38 = 15% of the time. thus your fold equity is very low, and you are dead to 2 outs vs his calling range (translating to having very little pot equity), which is why i think c/f > b/f or b/c.

edit: to further the above point, if you bet say 3/4 pot, you require ~42% folds in a vacuum. by this i mean "assuming you have no pot equity when called" which isn't exactly the case (because we have two outs against most of his calling range), but it's close to the truth (we have 6% against 44,66-QQ). thus he is going to need to be floating you a decent amount of the time on the flop in order to meet your required fold frequncy on the turn. simply because you have very little equity when called, and as such rely heavily on fold equity. this guy has pretty tight, reggish stats, and no history with you, so i'm inclined to think he is playing relatively straightforward, and thus we will struggle to meet our required fold frequency.

Originally Posted by rpm

44 (1)
55 (6)
66 (1)
77 (3)
88 (6)
99 (3)
TT-QQ (18)
total of 38 combinations

You make a very convincing argument. Do you mean by the above that there is only one combination of 44 that he may hold? Typo? surely there are three and only one combination of 77 -still gives the same result.

Originally Posted by rpm

not really, because once he calls the turn we know we have like 6% equity against his range, assuming that he is very unlikely to double-float (i think he's pretty unlikely to float one street, and basically never going to double-float with such a short stack). so with 6% equity we are hardly ever going to be priced into calling a river bet. that said, i still think C/F'ing the turn is the best play.

I think I see more clearly where I went wrong now, I am working hard on the reasoning behind the decisions I make at the table, so this has been very helpful. Check fold was probably best on the turn.

thanks!

Originally Posted by frjd2

Do you mean by the above that there is only one combination of 44 that he may hold? Typo? surely there are three and only one combination of 77 -still gives the same result.

yeah you're right, sorry. because i used a quote in my response i couldn't see the actual HH, i wrote the combos out thinking the board was 447 instead of 774.

Originally Posted by frjd2

thanks!

pleasure

Originally Posted by frjd2

I think I see more clearly where I went wrong now

do not, by any means, take my word as the gospel. i'm as big a fish as anyone.