AA facing check-raise on Turn @5NL

Villain has been at table for only few hands, so no significant stats.

Is this a reasonable analysis?

PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players

BTN: $5.26
SB: $1.97
BB: $2.50
UTG: $15.96
MP: $5.68
Hero (CO): $6.87

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero has A A

fold, MP raises to $0.17, Hero raises to $0.50, fold, fold, fold, MP calls $0.33

I put villain on 99+, Ak, AQ

Flop: ($1.07, 2 players) 9 4 7
MP bets $0.76, Hero calls $0.76

Donk bet. Based on my pre-flop range, flop does not hit his range very hard. Keep same range.

Turn: ($2.59, 2 players) Q
MP checks, Hero bets $1.85, MP raises to $3.70, [color=red]Hero ????

Here I get checked-raised. I put villain on QQ+, AQ.

From Pokerstove:

Board: 9c 4d 7h Qs
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 24.432% 21.31% 03.13% 900 132.00 { QQ+, AQs, AQo }
Hand 1: 75.568% 72.44% 03.13% 3060 132.00 { AA }


So this looks like a shove.

Ouch,this is one of those spots where I end up leveling myself and stacking off to a set. He's defo got more sets than just Qs in his range, at least 99, prolly 77 and without reads I wouldn't discount 44.

Thanks for the reply.

Adding all these potential sets. Now it is a flip.

Board: 7c 9h Qs 4s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.000% 48.00% 02.00% 528 22.00 { QQ+, 99, 77, 44, AQs, AQo }
Hand 1: 50.000% 48.00% 02.00% 528 22.00 { AcAs }

take AQ out of that range k thanks

edit: KK,AA should be discounted as well, maybe even QQ depending on villain

Without AQ, AA only has 35% equity.

thanks for the help.

flop lead is like hmm then c/r is like yep then i fold

What made you choose to not raise the flop?

Originally Posted by Sorcery11

What made you choose to not raise the flop?

worse folds and better calls?

I'd make it bigger preflop and would fold the turn because his line is so strong. AQ doesn't usually donk flop and KK 4bets most of the time.

Never folding AA here ever ever

its 5nl def raise the flop, hes going to 3bet/get in TT+ here so much.

Raise flop, fold turn

nah i'm calling flawp almost 100 procent here