Ace-Hi Flush OTR v Fish - Sizing?

Villain is VP 56, PF 9, Agg 1.7 over 87,and i've been picking on him a lot from IP.

This is one of only 7 hands he's open-raised, and always for a min-bet. None have shown down so far.

By the River, i'm 95% good, so how much do you think this kinda player will call off w/ TP or low PP?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (6 handed)

MP ($2.50)
CO ($5.25)
Button ($7.01)
Hero (SB) ($6.27)
BB ($5.16)
UTG ($12.08)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 3, A
3 folds, Button bets $0.10, Hero raises to $0.30, 1 fold, Button calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.65)

6, 5, J (2 players)
Hero bets $0.31, Button calls $0.31

Turn: ($1.27)

5 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.61, Button calls $0.61

River: ($2.49)

10 (2 players)
Hero bets ???

Hero bets 1.70. Are we folding to a shove? Can villian ever have a boat cuz hero doesnt have the nuts, just A-high flush.

Bigger flop, could even overbet here. If I didn't overbet flop, depending on flop timing I *MAY* overbet turn. This is just something I do personally. I will let you figure out why. <--- Ignore this advice in this case because I assumed you raised pre.

Fold pre. As played I don't hate the sizing because he's a passive fuck, you could even go a little smaller and get to future streets for cheaper.

edit: River decision ofcourse, I just pot it unless I think he will start folding a bunch of things he normally wouldn't. Remember you only need a psb bet to be called 1/2 as much as a 1/2 pot bet for it to be the same eV.

fold pre
$0.5 on flop
turn i'm unsure of. there may be some merit in a blocker bet vs someone so passive and who won't know what we are trying to accomplish?
river i'd just bet like 90% of pot and maximise value vs his Jx which won't fold.

Originally Posted by rpm

fold pre

why, please?

Originally Posted by DoubleJ

why, please?

my reasoning at the time was something like "i don't think A3s is going to flop well enough often enough to play it OOP against this fish who is almost never folding and too often we'll be left guessing about how wide his range is postflop and being tempted to fire 2 or 3 barrels for which we don't really have adequate reads (oh and dominated almost any time we flop an ace and start betting multiple streets)". i don't necessarily still think all of the above is the case, but some of it may be true.

not a fan of sizing on any street

Originally Posted by bikes

not a fan of sizing on any street

Bigger or smaller? Both options are obviously viable for different reasons but I think going in the middle is probably the worst or am I missing something?

Originally Posted by Icanhastreebet

I think going in the middle is probably the worst or am I missing something?

this was my exact thought. i'd probably prefer to check than to just bet 1/2 pot as we will almost never get folds and we don't have enough pot equity to make betting > checking a vacuum.

Originally Posted by rpm

this was my exact thought. i'd probably prefer to check than to just bet 1/2 pot as we will almost never get folds and we don't have enough pot equity to make betting > checking a vacuum.

Yeah dudes so passive(afaict) though that I think we can bet like 10c and get him to call with almost his entire range instead of betting the stronger parts of it 1/2 pot himself.

Originally Posted by bikes

not a fan of sizing on any street

Oh cock sauce.

looks like i need to book another session w/ you then, Sir

plus, his PFR is 9 and he's probably not positionally aware at all. meaning he's not opening the "standard" 30-40% on the button (though his ATS stat is highly relevant here). he's not going to fold to your 3bet very often at all, and the range he continues with is A) far stronger than yours and B) not going to be folding too much postflop given that strength. plus we are OOP. low suited aces are often ideal 3bet bluff candidates for playing out of the blinds, i just don't think this is the right situation for it.