Hi I wouldn't worry too much about being down 3bi's over 3k hands, you need about 20k hands to start forming judgements about your quality of play...
As for AIEV - it's not really an estimate it's one of the few stats that is more or less exact. For hands that you are ALL IN, either you call an all in before the river or you raise all in before river and get called, it will show you exactly how good/bad you're running.
It does this exactly because it works out given the probabaility of you having the best hand by the river, given the cards you and villian had when money went in, what % of the pot will you win on average? This gives it an exact number that you 'deserve' to win on average. Anything you win above this is shown as +ve aiev, and anything you lose below this, is shown as -ve aiev, so it's very accurate, as it's purely mathematical.
So... for hands where you are all in before river it's a great indicator of how good bad you're running. But bear in mind if you get AA in vs KK, and win, according to AIEV you are still *lucky* when you stack your opponent as technically you didn't deserve to win 100% of the pot. Apart from this little detail it's fairly intuitive
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