AKo vs 2 -- line check please

The nit's been running 10/7/2 over about 60 hands and the fish is all over the place at about 60/14/1. I've been in the last three hands, taking down two on the turn and one at showdown. I'm wondering if I should have flat called the flop raise to keep the fish in the pot.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (7 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop | saw showdown

UTG ($29.30)
MP1 ($16.32)
Hero (MP2) ($28.97)
Fish (CO) ($8.21)
nit (Button) ($25)
SB ($21.89)
BB ($39.31)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K, A
2 folds, Hero bets $0.75, Fish calls $0.75, nit raises to $3.25, 2 folds, Hero calls $2.50, Fish calls $2.50

Ok, here I've got the nit on TT+, AJs+. AQo+. I'm thinking that the fish could have 56s+, 78o+, 77+, A7o+, A8s+.

Flop: ($10.10) 10, A, K (3 players)
Hero checks, Fish checks, nit bets $6.72, Hero raises to $25.72 (All-In), 1 fold, nit calls $15.03 (All-In)

I shove because I can reasonably eliminate AA, KK from the nit's range and really only have to worry about TT or a split at worst, at best he's crushed because he's never RR pre with QJ. I definately want to get his stack but I want to keep in the fish because I beat his whole range except QJ, TT. Should I have slowed down and called F and T to commit the fish to the pot and then shove on the river?

Turn: ($53.60) 7 (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($53.60) Q (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $53.60 | Rake: $2

I like how you put nit and fish in the HH, makes it easier to read.

You could fold AKo to the nit's 3-bet oop. You're at the bottom of his range. Against a tag or lag, 4-betting is good.

Why do you think the nit can't have AA or KK? I think calling there otf vs the nit is best, and the fish there only makes it better, because the nit probably has AK and QQ+, and the only hand you beat is QQ and it'll fold to a shove.

4bet or fold pre imo. If it was suited I'd like flatting way more

you open MP2 so its unlikely he thinks your stealing pre, also he knows the fish will call him, he saw you winning last 3 hands so i think he gives your raise some credit, he is a nit and he 4x3bets 2 opps, i really dont think he does that with his bottom 3bet range, so flatting AKo here i think is bad.... shoving flop i think its a split best case for you. do you really think a nit calls the flop shove AQ, AJ, JJ, QQ? never ever.... he is always here KK,AA and sometimes AK, even TT would surprise me.

Originally Posted by couriermike

I like how you put nit and fish in the HH, makes it easier to read.

You could fold AKo to the nit's 3-bet oop. You're at the bottom of his range. Against a tag or lag, 4-betting is good.

Why do you think the nit can't have AA or KK? I think calling there otf vs the nit is best, and the fish there only makes it better, because the nit probably has AK and QQ+, and the only hand you beat is QQ and it'll fold to a shove.

I was thinking that if I bricked the flop then I'd get out on the flop, but that the flat would allow me to see the flop cheap and if I 4bet into him then he'd fold like he did a couple hands ago.

My thinking on the flop was that there were 3 A's & 3 K's out there PF, but once the flop came that it was 33% less likely for him to have either one in his hand and between 60 to 75% less likely for him to have pocket AA or KK.
So i said thanks for the extra 33% and shoved thinking that it's a split or he's got a set and might fold thinking I had a better set.

I'm not sure if I applied those %'s correctly, if the 60 - 75% is accurate or if I should have been thinking that way at all.

Originally Posted by Shotglass

My thinking on the flop was that there were 3 A's & 3 K's out there PF, but once the flop came that it was 33% less likely for him to have either one in his hand and between 60 to 75% less likely for him to have pocket AA or KK.
So i said thanks for the extra 33% and shoved thinking that it's a split or he's got a set and might fold thinking I had a better set.

I'm not sure if I applied those %'s correctly, if the 60 - 75% is accurate or if I should have been thinking that way at all.

I see what you're saying. There's very few premium hand combos for him to have, especially on that flop. However, if he can only call the shove with a chop or better, no matter how few hand combos there are, then it's not good.

Originally Posted by couriermike

However, if he can only call the shove with a chop or better, no matter how few hand combos there are, then it's not good.

I think I see what you're saying. It'd probably been safer to either fold or 4bet pre to try to take it there. And on the flop to try to get to the showdown cheaply, because there's a small chance (5 - 10%) that he doesn't have the set that he's repping.

I hope that I understood everyone's advice correctly in that there definately was a better way to play this.

On a different note: If he shows AQo, or some thing like that, should I take that as someone who is trying to adjust to my playing or just another case of someone not dropping TPGK?

why are people 3xing nowadays @ 25nl, I'm just wondering.

This hand, fold to the nits 3b, u give him WAY too wide of a range. 4bing pre is worst then flatting