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Analysis of my micro stakes reading
Two examples here, where I think hero is good to go both times. Perhaps I am on the right lines or completely underestimating the villains. Either way, advice would be good before I donk my whole roll.
The first hand is a paraphrasing an experts HH analysis.
Hand 1:
1000NL
Hero: Kd Qc. UTG raises $4. All fold. Hero calls.
Board: Ks Qd 6h. Hero checks, villain checks.
Turn: Jd. Hero bets $8. Villain minraises to $16.
River: 3s. Hero bets $10. Villain raises to $30. Hero calls.
Villain flips Jh Js and wins with a set.
Expert analysis "You're dealt KQ in the BB and you call UTG raise of $4. You flop top 2 pair and check, presumably with the intention of check raising, but villain checks too. He may want to keep the pot small with a hand with some showdown value, such as mid pockets, he could have AK/A10 for the draw or a set.
The turn is a J and you bet $8 but he minraises to $16. So he's checked in position and minraises you. This is rarely a bluff. Here it looks like A10. Flat calling is fine but raising/all in would be horrific."
My view on this is that most players I come across (especially in SNG/MTT) will happily min raise with any flop combo including JQ, KA or draw. And many with a set will just call and so I can't see how hero can get away from top two pair. Being hero, I would think my hand is good and would look to bet out to price out the straight/extract value from a lesser hand yet the expert said it's a no no - even though he himself thought villain was on a draw.
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