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[quote="underminedsk"]You are right, after talking it over with some of my friends today, we decided that big flop check raises are killing action against good players. Perhaps leading into the PFR would be better (if I put the PFR on TPTK+), or check/calling flop + check/calling turn + donk lead the river, or check calling flop + c/r turn. Might these be better lines against tight players?
As a side note, I just moved a large portion of my bankroll from a eurobet site where abig flop c/r + 1/2 pot turn + open push river was good for full stacks almost every time. It's hard adjusting to the conciderably tigher play at party poker.
On the issue of 22-77, the general consensus seems to be that opening them from EP-MP for a 5x would be unprofitable?
Originally Posted by Renton
Raising 22-77 from EP has to be negative EV.
Think about it. 77 is dominated by 88- AA. This means 42 hands dominate it. More importantly, 77 dominates very few hands.
Compare this to KQ, which a lot of people have trouble raising with from EP. AQ is dominated by AA, KK, QQ, AK, and AQ which add up to 50 hands.
So basically if its profitable to raise 77 from EP, then it should also be profitable to raise KQ as well (which is doubtful).
I can definately see what you are saying here, but I've noticed that 50%+ of my PFRs are folded to preflop. Also, c-betting increases the EV of any hand. And you do have a 1/8 chance of flopping a monster. I see this as very different from opening KQ from EP, where you can see a flop like QJ4 and have no idea whether you should be happy about this flop or not. Opening KQ from EP might be profitable anyway, but it's very tough to play in the hands where you hit TPGK and your OOP. With 22-77 either your set or dont set, so generally you know where you stand.
Really, my biggest concern about playing 22-77 oop is being oversetted, and getting myself into a situation where both my opponent and I have 150xbb+ stacks and I cannot get away from it. Is this fear justified?
Ill continue to update those stats as I increase the number of hands I log. I'd be interested to see stats from somone else's EV from playing pocket pairs at 400NL+ over a larger sample size. When people post things like:
Originally Posted by relayer
I play them roughly the same as the OP, and over 13K hands, they are all profitable...some more than others, of course.
I used to be skittish about the smaller PPs, but I love 'em now...
be sure to post the stakes and site you are playing at, because it makes a HUGE difference. I figure everyone playing low stakes and below should be making a ton of money calling raises with pocket pairs, so people saying they are profitable at 100NL and below doing this doesnt really mean much, I dont think.
[quote="Fnord"]
It could be bad luck. These pairs often need to both hit a set AND get paid AND hold up the way most people play them. Hence, you really have to look at the entire group of hands instead of a particularl one over any sample less than hundreds of thousands.
quote]
to address the sample size and luck issue, let me give some perspective:
I've logged 5995 hands at 400NL and I've had 383 pairs. Now 5995/383 = 15.6. This number is a bit high for PPs, right? Since the chance of getting a pair is 1/17. (Again this reflects the small sample size). Out of these 383 pairs, I've flopped a set 33 times. 383/33 = 11.7. This is also pretty low, as the chance of flopping a set should be 1/8. So the high number of pocket pairs coupled with the low number of sets indicates bad variance, right? (Or do I have this totally backwards)
Originally Posted by Fnord
...as I understand it Doyle is usually the one raising that up!
40:1 is my magic number for implied odds on stuff like that. So certainly with 200-300bb stacks you should consider these calls. It also depends on reads. You can make up some ground if you know the other player well enough to take away the pot with air or continue with not much of anything.
As a side note, I often raise suited connectors and occasionally call raises, and my EV on suited connectors 45s-QJs is very positive across the board. This must mean that doing these things is working well.
Originally Posted by Renton
if all your small pairs are losing, you must seriously be getting killed at this limit. Maybe you should beat up on 1/2 a little more.
I'm break even over the first 6000 hands at PP NL400. It's kind of depressing to think id be up 1.5k+ if I just hadnt played any pairs 99 or below at all (Obviously this wouldnt be correct though)
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