backdoor flush draw=extra out?

so i was doing some logical thinking, and I think a backdoor flush draw is the equivalent of an extra out... here is my line of reasoning:

odds of hitting a flush card on one card= .2
odds of hitting 2 straight= .2^2=.04

4% is about what you get per out added onto your hand...



any thoughts?

yes

yes, but don't forget that it's an out dealing with effective odds and not implied odds/actual odds.

Meaning even though it's an extra out, it's going to take calling 2 streets to make a hand.

I generally will base a marginal flop decision in limit off the fact that I do/do not have a backdoor flush draw, it can make marginal spots swing to either +/-EV.

Spendas post needs careful consideration, its very important. Your extra out really only counts if you're considering an all in on the flop, because that "extra out" disappears on the turn.

Originally Posted by euphoricism

Spendas post needs careful consideration, its very important. Your extra out really only counts if you're considering an all in on the flop, because that "extra out" disappears on the turn.

The extra out from a BDFD can help a hand like AKs suited when you hit TPTK with 1 card suited the same as your AK. If you fear a made two pair, a set or some big draw, you now have 5 Aces and Kings that improve your hand PLUS 9 cards that will give you a flush draw on the turn, with one card to come. You bet more aggressively on the flop, and reassess on the turn. But Eupho makes a good point when you're on a draw without any made hand.