Big Pot 20NL

Villain is 30/16/114(hands)

Microgaming, $0.10/0.20 Hold'em Cash Games, 9 Players
Hand Converter by Pokerhand.org

Board:
D1reStra1ghts (UTG): $18.15
HERO (UTG+1): $31.67
padico (MP1): $7.60
jifeng2008 (MP2): $3.80
Dying123 (MP3): $5.28
ConQU (CO): $36.45
chikurinka (Button): $2.50
Altistblin (SB): $8.28
JMGutiH (BB): $21.19

Dealt to HERO Q Q

Pre-flop:
(1 folds), HERO raises to $.80, (1 folds), jifeng2008 calls $.80, (1 folds), ConQU calls $.80, (3 folds)

Flop: ($2.70) 5 J T (3 Players)
HERO bets $2.20, jifeng2008 raises to $3, ConQU calls $3, HERO calls $.80

Turn: ($8.70) 5 (3 Players)
HERO bets $7, ConQU calls $7

River: ($22.70) 9 (3 Players)
HERO checks, ConQU bets $12.85, HERO ?

Comments?

I'm laying this down. I try not to go all in with top/over pair, especially when that river would complete the flush and straight draws. Given your opponent's stats, this board will fit his hand range perfectly. Plus, you're still in a three way pot. You're QQ is no good here.

reads? ranges? Why do you bet the turn?

i call this all day. You're a 60% favorite over the following range: TT,KQs,J9s+,KQo,J9o+

Originally Posted by al yell

i call this all day. You're a 60% favorite over the following range: TT,KQs,J9s+,KQo,J9o+

IMHO, 60% is too marginal to stack off, and I think you're way too limited in the ranges this op is likely to play. If he's showing too much aggression, there will be a better opportunity to take his stack.

Originally Posted by kb coolman

Originally Posted by al yell

i call this all day. You're a 60% favorite over the following range: TT,KQs,J9s+,KQo,J9o+

IMHO, 60% is too marginal to stack off, and I think you're way too limited in the ranges this op is likely to play. If he's showing too much aggression, there will be a better opportunity to take his stack.

first off, you're not 'stacking off. It's only 2/3 of your stack. Also consider your odds; you're calling $12 to win $30 (3:1). His aggression is another incentive to call, whereas if he was passive (i.e. only betting the nuts) I may be more reluctant to, but would still call.

btw, what range do you put him on?

you forgot them hearts in your range

Originally Posted by kmind

you forgot them hearts in your range

right! except i'm at a bit of a loss as to how to work them in (to pokerstove for instance)

Originally Posted by al yell

btw, what range do you put him on?

I easily put this guy on ALL broadways, SCs, and connected Jacks or better. Like I said...not a good board against this guy with QQ.

KQ and heart draws both got there. I don't see him betting anything that you beat here.

Originally Posted by al yell

i call this all day.

obv a spew monkey

Originally Posted by kb coolman

IMHO, 60% is too marginal to stack off

wat? WAT?

so if someone said a coin landed heads 60% of the time...and they offered you even monies....

...


...


.


...


WAT?

Originally Posted by d0zer

Originally Posted by kb coolman

IMHO, 60% is too marginal to stack off

wat? WAT?

so if someone said a coin landed heads 60% of the time...and they offered you even monies....

Pre-flop, of course I call it against this guy. Against a 12/7? No.

There is information presented to you during the course of a poker hand that is not available in a coin flip. Board texture, opponent ranges, betting patterns, etc.

Playing hand percentages with no regard to opponent ranges will not win you any money. Against a decent player, you will get stacked time and time again, especially with the % is marginal. Trust me, I know from experience.

If you were AI with QQ against a random opponent pre-flop against this board, then yes, you will win 60% of the time. That does not take into consideration information given during the course of the hand.

Let's look at it another way. You have AcAh pre-flop, the board presents 4 spades and you're faced with an AI call decision on the river. Technically, you would win this hand 55% of the time. That's better than 50/50, so it's a long term +EV play, right? But it makes a big difference if you're checking the river as opposed to calling the AI bet. Calling when you know you're beat is -EV, I don't care what the odds are.