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bluff-jam turn 25nl

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  1. #1
    rpm's Avatar
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    Default bluff-jam turn 25nl

    villain is 20/14/9 (VPIP/PFR/3b) over about 50 hands. he has folded 5/5 SB's vs steal, and 3/4 BB's (3betting the one time he continued). he has folded to 1/2 CB's, and C/R'd 1/2 flops. in the 71 hands i've played at this table (of which all 50 of my total hands with villain have been played) i'm about 30/24/8 and have CB 5/6 opportunities.

    i peel the flop because i have equity against his nut hands, and i expect him to be full of shit reasonably often because most regs either 3b or fold the pocket pairs that flopped sets here.

    on the turn i decide to jam because i expect to get all of his better flush draws to fold (which is every flush draw he can have) and i have 20% or whatever vs his sets if he ever has them. i understand jamming over turn bets generally sucks in terms of playing our whole range. but in this spot, this early in our history, i don't think i care.

    thoughts?

    edit: preflop sizing is because i have been stealing a lot and the guy to my left had begun 3betting me pretty liberally

    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    Button ($29.87)
    SB ($11.84)
    BB ($25)
    UTG ($28.20)
    MP ($41.76)
    Hero (CO) ($34.91)

    Preflop: Hero is CO with 8, 7
    2 folds, Hero bets $0.60, 2 folds, BB calls $0.35

    Flop: ($1.30) 5, 2, 3 (2 players)
    BB checks, Hero bets $0.80, BB raises to $2.50, Hero calls $1.70

    Turn: ($6.30) J (2 players)
    BB bets $4.21,Hero raises to $21.90 (Effectively All-In)
    Last edited by rpm; 04-18-2012 at 05:46 AM.

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