Can anyone find a fold here?

@Bonga - Pot odds aren't tough, but I have some difficulty with guessing how much they'll commit later in the hand for the implied odds. I calculated the pot odds (expressed, not implied) at the table. It was like 1.6 to 1 which got me to fold because like I wrote: "I didn't think I'd stack him if I hit" the 1 in 5 and I'd still be only be getting about 4.3 to 1 if I did. (prolly shoulda wrote that in the op)

What did you mean by "is this a level?"
Plus, I think that i need to get a lot better before I'm ready to sit across the table from you and quite a few others on FTR.

@kfaess - After posting this yesterday, I did a quick calculation against his range (hoping that I was pretty close) using stove and assuming that there'd be no more betting otr. I had equity in the 40% range (I think it was like 41 or 48, but I didn't write it down) but needed like 60% to call the bet; so I felt a lot better about the fold.
I think I'm gonna go back to the stove and figure out how it would change the hand if I had TP plus the FD, say the flop came in A76.

@smith - re-reading my OP, the cbet stat is irrelevant, my mistake. (fixed op)

@PTW - I didn't even think of this at the time, but should have because I've pulled this move on others without overbetting the pot. Maybe seeing it come back at me was one of the things that sent me into the tank trying to figure out what he'd make this move with, and came up with sets trying to price out the draws, which he did.


Thx for everyone's coments so far.

Originally Posted by Shotglass

@Bonga - Pot odds aren't tough, but I have some difficulty with guessing how much they'll commit later in the hand for the implied odds. I calculated the pot odds (expressed, not implied) at the table. It was like 1.6 to 1 which got me to fold because like I wrote: "I didn't think I'd stack him if I hit" the 1 in 5 and I'd still be only be getting about 4.3 to 1 if I did. (prolly shoulda wrote that in the op)

What did you mean by "is this a level?"
Plus, I think that i need to get a lot better before I'm ready to sit across the table from you and quite a few others on FTR.

I must be honest, I was just surprised that someone who contributes to a poker forum and plays 25nl would not immediately see this is a fold 100% of the time. I don't think this hand even warrants discussion; I'm not trying to be an arse, just honest. It's that easy a fold.

I understand that deciding how much a villain will put into a pot after we make our hand is very tough to accurately factor, but in this example it's very irrelevant since our stack is barely 4 times the bet size, meaning we're well short of the required implied odds even when villain always stacks off.

And don't big me up too much, I'm not great at poker by any means, I'm just finding my feet at 25s. While I can lay this down without too much of a fuss (probably at flop tbh, though I don't hate the float), I still get set mined and I'm not getting as much value in some spots as I could, so you don't need to fear me just yet, unless that is you can't lay down a flush draw to my bets!

You'll also find that it's a lot easier to play poker when you're reading through someone else's hand with a smoke and all the time in the world, with no pressure at all. I can play other people's hands better than I play my own, it seems. I doubt I'm the only one.