Can anyone find a fold here?

Villain is running 17/3/1, over a pretty good sample, like almost 800.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop | saw showdown

SB ($12.15)
BB ($22.80)
Hero (UTG) ($29.09)
MP ($26.08)
CO ($26)
Button ($12)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J, A
Hero bets $1, 4 folds, BB calls $0.75

I'm thinkin that he's prolly got A7s-AJs (Maybe AQs), ATo-AQo, 77 - JJ (Maybe QQ), KJs+, KQo. I really think he woulda 3bet QQ+, AK, AQs, but I also thought that he's the BB and could be calling atc because he's a station with a PFR of 3.

Flop: ($2.10) 6, 7, K (2 players)
BB bets $0.70, Hero calls $0.70

His small donk bet smells like he's tryin to figure out where he's at in the hand. I'm def not folding; but in retrospect I prolly shoulda 4x raised because I think the float turned my hand face up for a draw. When he overbets the pot OTT I tank for a long time tryin to decide between a fold or a shove cause I had a plan for a c/r or psb but not this and I don't think I'll stack him if another falls otr.

Turn: ($3.50) 4 (2 players)
BB bets $5.25, Hero????

Folding all day.

Originally Posted by Shotglass

Villain is running 17/3/1, 75% cbet over a pretty good sample, like almost 800.

can't fold fast enough

Originally Posted by supahaole

Folding all day.

+1 Also, betting small can be to induce a raise or to get you more committed to the pot so that you can't get away from the next street, where villian really goes for value. Don't fall for it.

*Please, no more pink text.

Originally Posted by PlayToWin

+1 Also, betting small can be to induce a raise or to get you more committed to the pot so that you can't get away from the next street, where villian really goes for value. Don't fall for it.

*Please, no more pink text.

Thx.

Sorry about the text color.

pokerstove?

I take it no one else noticed the fact that a cbet stat here is completely irrelevant? (since it wasn't a cbet)

Anyway floating donk bets are annoying without a plan (usually bluff raising) or equity. Especially against smart donks who put you correctly on hands that can't call. Fold look for better spot...

Personally I would love to hear more about dealing with leads in heads up pots.

Is this a level?

I've been having a tough time against people at 25s who can't lay down flush draws. In my first 25k hands at 25nl, I've sucked four flush draws all in on the flop with monsters and three made the flush and one hit a straight on the runner. Therefore, shoving this is 100% certain to win you the pot. Please look me up on stars on the FR tables, sit to my right, and play your flush draws at any price. Please. I need to start clawing back my money from fishy flush draws types.

Or, if you want some serious advice, quickly learn about pot odds. I realise the maths gets tough sometimes, but when villain overbets the pot, you can rest assured that the pot odds are terrible for a flush draw. We have something like 1/5 chance of hitting our hand, therefore we need our prize if we hit the flush to be five times our investment. Since we can't win that much even if villain stacks off on river 100% of the time, calling this flush draw is beyond retarded.

Shoving is also terrible, since we'd need folds a lot more often than will actually happen to make it profitable.

@Bonga - Pot odds aren't tough, but I have some difficulty with guessing how much they'll commit later in the hand for the implied odds. I calculated the pot odds (expressed, not implied) at the table. It was like 1.6 to 1 which got me to fold because like I wrote: "I didn't think I'd stack him if I hit" the 1 in 5 and I'd still be only be getting about 4.3 to 1 if I did. (prolly shoulda wrote that in the op)

What did you mean by "is this a level?"
Plus, I think that i need to get a lot better before I'm ready to sit across the table from you and quite a few others on FTR.

@kfaess - After posting this yesterday, I did a quick calculation against his range (hoping that I was pretty close) using stove and assuming that there'd be no more betting otr. I had equity in the 40% range (I think it was like 41 or 48, but I didn't write it down) but needed like 60% to call the bet; so I felt a lot better about the fold.
I think I'm gonna go back to the stove and figure out how it would change the hand if I had TP plus the FD, say the flop came in A76.

@smith - re-reading my OP, the cbet stat is irrelevant, my mistake. (fixed op)

@PTW - I didn't even think of this at the time, but should have because I've pulled this move on others without overbetting the pot. Maybe seeing it come back at me was one of the things that sent me into the tank trying to figure out what he'd make this move with, and came up with sets trying to price out the draws, which he did.


Thx for everyone's coments so far.

Originally Posted by Shotglass

@Bonga - Pot odds aren't tough, but I have some difficulty with guessing how much they'll commit later in the hand for the implied odds. I calculated the pot odds (expressed, not implied) at the table. It was like 1.6 to 1 which got me to fold because like I wrote: "I didn't think I'd stack him if I hit" the 1 in 5 and I'd still be only be getting about 4.3 to 1 if I did. (prolly shoulda wrote that in the op)

What did you mean by "is this a level?"
Plus, I think that i need to get a lot better before I'm ready to sit across the table from you and quite a few others on FTR.

I must be honest, I was just surprised that someone who contributes to a poker forum and plays 25nl would not immediately see this is a fold 100% of the time. I don't think this hand even warrants discussion; I'm not trying to be an arse, just honest. It's that easy a fold.

I understand that deciding how much a villain will put into a pot after we make our hand is very tough to accurately factor, but in this example it's very irrelevant since our stack is barely 4 times the bet size, meaning we're well short of the required implied odds even when villain always stacks off.

And don't big me up too much, I'm not great at poker by any means, I'm just finding my feet at 25s. While I can lay this down without too much of a fuss (probably at flop tbh, though I don't hate the float), I still get set mined and I'm not getting as much value in some spots as I could, so you don't need to fear me just yet, unless that is you can't lay down a flush draw to my bets!

You'll also find that it's a lot easier to play poker when you're reading through someone else's hand with a smoke and all the time in the world, with no pressure at all. I can play other people's hands better than I play my own, it seems. I doubt I'm the only one.

I guess I just need to stop second guessing myself about things like this, which was why I posted in the first place. I was thinking: Maybe I played this wrong. Was his small flop bet a suck or a bluff? Followed by the "shit I suck at poker!"

but needed like 60% to call the bet

You never need 60% equity to call a bet. Even if the dead money in the pot is 0 before he bets (which is never the case), you need only 50% equity. And the more dead money in the pot, the less equity you need to call.

(this is only for all-in showdown equity: no further betting taken into account).

I thought it was bet/(pot+bet) compared to equity:
5.25/(3.5+5.25)=0.6 > equity of ~ 41 to 48

But from reading your post I guess I did this wrong.

your pot odds as a fraction or % = your call / total pot after you call

In this case it's 5.25/(3.50+2*5.25) = 37.5%

Note that your formula above is correct if you consider "pot" as the size of the pot just before it is your turn to play (i.e. after your opponent has bet. This is the way Spoon explains it in this thread (under the "the process" paragraph): http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ll-173396.html

Further reading:
http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ght=clarifying

Thanks for clarifying that.

fold turn and its not even close. fwiw flop even might be a fold, 20/4's or whatever aren't exactly known for their creativity. Sure you have some backdoor draws here, but you are likely drawing to 3 outs with ur A most the time + some of the time, that might be dead too... so you're only looking at runner runners.

Shove or Fold!!! Read dependent of course.