Can you fold here?

Hero (BB) ($40.17)
UTG ($25)
MP ($23.15)
CO ($14.57)
Button ($26.44)
SB ($45.31)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A, A
UTG bets $0.75, MP calls $0.75, 2 folds, SB calls $0.65, Hero raises to $5, 2 folds, SB calls $4.25

Flop: ($11.50) Q, 6, 3 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $7.68, SB raises to $40.31 (All-In), Hero calls $27.49 (All-In)

Turn: ($81.84) J (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($81.84) 5 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $81.84 | Rake: $2


Villain is extremely fishy, about 30/12. The guy who opened UTG seemed fairly solid, but the MP caller was 50/20 or so, hence the oversize 3bet to get it heads up.

When villain calls the oversize 3bet, he's calling loose, but not absolutely maniacal, so when we see the flop he can have;

8 combos of AK
6 combos of AQ
6 combos of KK
1 combo of AA
1 combo of QQ

Out of those, he will make his flop check-shove with 6xAQ + 6xKK that we are crushing, 1 combo of AA that we're probably splitting with unless there are running diamonds, and 1 combo of QQ that is crushing us.

So, we are winning or splitting on 13 combos, and we're crushed by 1.

Am I missing anything, is this an unreasonable spot to call his shove? Who thinks he _wouldn't_ shove AQ or KK?

He was pretty passive. I wouldn't expect to see him shove the nut flush draw here, and generally being so passive but not outrageously loose I expected to see KK, or perhaps a loose AQ that'd hit the flop so hard he ejaculated.

I was genuinely mindfucked to see him turn over 33. That is poker, and I look forward to playing against him again, but I am interested to know who thinks I stacked off light here? Is anyone folding?




EDIT:

FUCK. I just realised this guy was folding 15% to 3bets, albeit over quite a small sample. I guess I need to get better at using preflop stats once something unexpected happens at the flop. I was a little too quick to expect KK when he called such a big 3bet pf, but I guess I could have got away from this if I'd read that stat at the time and considered 66/33.

So let's redo his range in light of this. He is calling the oversize 3bet preflop with all PP, AK, AQ, KQ.

He will check-shove the flop with 3 combos of 66, 3 of 33, 3 of QQ, 6 of KK, 6 of AQ, 1 of AA.

9 are crushing us, 12 we crush, 1 is a split pot most times.

Still perhaps not a light stack-off, but considerably lighter than I thought above.

Let's be pessimistic and say he wouldn't ship AQ here, then we are crushed by 9 and crushing 6. Let's see if this was a big fuckup on my part to call.

I was getting $46.67 to $27.49 or about 1.7:1 to call, so we need about 37% equity and sticking this on the stove with his tightest check-shoving range {AA,KK,QQ,66,33} shows us having 41%, so I still make it a call but only marginally.

Perhaps that's not a sufficient excuse to chalk this one up to experience, as I do feel a bit of a dick for the way I just froze up like a deer in the headlights and called a totally unexpected shove _hoping_ he had KK rather than QQ. It turns out the decision probably wasn't absolutely terrible, but I still feel like I could have done better and might have been able to find a fold here.

It also ties in with the thread about setmining in 3bet pots I posted the other day. Sure, the guy here didn't have odds to do so, but had my 3bet been a little smaller he'd have been up against a hand that was stacking off to his set and he'd have had odds to see the flop. Maybe I don't have a clue - I'm not about to say I know better than everyone who says not to do it, but when stacks offer odds to setmine in pots where someone's got married to their AA/KK and the flop doesn't look _too_ scary, stuff like this happens.

I think I'd be hard pressed to fold this spot. I would have tanked and called. Looking that flop, I don't think it's a simple write off that villain can't have ATdd+. KJdd isn't out of the question, either, but I doubt it's in the shove range.
It just feels like flush draw or 2pr or better (but no 2 pr makes sense given pre-flop play). Maybe they think you were squeezing pre-flop and have had a taste of your aggression before and saw Phil Ivey do this once. Villain is 30/12... What about post-flop? It he fit/fold or will he fire a barrel? Will he fire 2? Has he tried to bluff you or felt like you've bluffed him? Does he have a reason to think a small barrel is not enough to take you down?
(Without further knowledge, I don't just assume it's set... which is only encouraged by calling down busted draws what feels like all too often)

I don't think I'd squeezed him. There wasn't a major aggro dynamic at the table, and I don't think (although of course it's just my feeling) he felt like taking a stand, I suspect instead this was standard play for him, or that he has no standard play and just felt like calling to gamble on hitting a set.

He was pretty passive overall, generally played fit or fold. I was surprised at the shove and expected he must have KK, AA or QQ. He wasn't the type to shove JJ/TT here, and I expect he'd have just called with AQ too, or maybe bet-called.

Am I reading you right that this villain is 30% VPIP w/ 15% FT3... so he's calling or raising a 3-bet 85% of the time:
30% * 85% = 25.5% of the time this villain sees a flop no matter what the betting to get there?
Villain's range pre-flop: all PP, A9s+, KTs+, SC's 98+, AJo+, KJo+
I guess we can assume the lowest portions of this MAY not be played from LB.
Villain's range after shoving: QQ+,66,33, AT+dd, KJdd
Pokerstove gives you 45% equity against that range on the flop. (I put KJdd back into the shove range given how terribly the villain played pre-flop, however even taking it out, the equity is still ~45%
I can't see folding this one.

He's fishy, 30/12 and hardly ever folds to 3bets so has a wider preflop range than you think here.

KK/QQ are very unlikely given preflop action, he called an UTG raise + caller out of position then a squeeze. He'll try to get all in with big pairs preflop in general.

Flop is good, he gets all the money in with AQ/KQ/maybe QJ/random draws/occasional spazz along with 66/33. You played this fine.

Nice 3bet imo.

Just a note, villain does not have one combo of QQ in his range, if he has QQ then there's 3 combos, but as hoopy points out he's unlikely to have QQ since he flats the utg open and the squeeze.

I'm not folding against this guy, he has plenty of Qx and xxdd. If he binked a set 6s or 3s, or 2pr, then beautiful, make notes, right click his name, search for him, add him to your shitlist, and sit to his left on as many tables as possible, bumhunt the fucker. If he has QQ, note that he flats an utg open and then flats a huge squeeze with it. If he has flush draw or top pair, again, make him your friend and play as much poker against him as possible, and continue to make huge 3bets for value.

He's fucking awful whatever he shows up with here. If I was villain here and flatted the utg open, I'm folding QQ- and AK- to the squeeze, and shoving KK+. There is no hand I flat call now, it's stacks or muck.

Arrgghh! I always forget to take the top of their range out when they flat pre-flop.

QQ Axdd KK AQ ai

sometimes 66 33 if he has those ul.

Standard cooler without a post-flop read.

i don't fold aces in bloated 3b pots.