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Check my math!
Hey, I was hoping some more experienced players could give me some feedback on this exercise spoony gave me:
Here is the scenario:
My raise would be 0.14 into a 0.19 pot, so: 0.14/(0.14+0.19) = 33%
I need the villain to fold more than 33% of the time for the bluff to be profitable.
I have come up with an arbitrary range for the villain. I see all sorts in 2NL so I don't think this is too unrealistic...
Villain Preflop range: 99+,ATs+,KJs+,QJs,AJo+,KJo+,QJo
Meaning that (taking into account that I hold AK) he has 118/1176 combos that he calls with = 10.03%
Villain Postflop range (in response to my raise): QQ+,99,AQs,KQs,QJs,AQo,KQo,QJo
54/1176 combos = 4.59%
So villain is folding 54/118 to my raise = 46% of the time. 46 > 33, so the bluff is profitable.
Criticism would be much appreciated! Cheers big ears
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