Quote Originally Posted by spoonitnow
The purpose of this post is to ease some of you guys into doing some analysis on your own. I'm going to use an example of looking at a continuation bet since I figure that topic will attract you guys.

Suppose with 100bb stacks we open {AJ+, KQ, 66+} from some EP/MP position to 4x, a ~14/12 in FR or ~20/16 in 6-max calls us in LP, and everyone else folds. The flop comes A 9 7 . Here are some things to ask yourself:

1. What hands are you c-betting?
2. How much are you c-betting?
3. What hands are you folding to a raise?

I asked a low stakes player this, and this is what he had to say:

1. AJ+, KsQs, 99+, 77
2. 7 big blinds (into a pot of 9 big blinds after the rake)
3. QQ w/o Qs, JJ, TT, AJ w/o backdoor flush draw

With these answers, we can do a little analysis by breaking our range up into sub-ranges based on the line we're taking, which I do here along with how each hand and sub-range is weighted in terms of possible hand combinations:

Bet: AK(12), AQ(12), AJ(12), KsQs(1), 77(3), 99(3), TT(6), JJ(6), QQ(6), KK(6), 67 total
Check/fold: KQ(15), 66(6), 88(6), 27 total
Bet/fold: TT(6), JJ(6), QQ(3), AJ(8), 23 total

What do we think about this?
First I want to take a moment and thank Spoon for all the help and trying to make us think... now back to the post...

I am c-betting any AJ+ hand, 99 or 77 hand, those I am c-betting for value, as I am likely way ahead of his current holdings. If I have a tight table image, I am c-betting these hands for slightly less than if I have a standard table image, trying to show a bit of weakness, but still probably betting at least 6bb into the now 11bb pot, likely often would be 8bb. As towards folding to a raise, if he shoves I am not likely to fold any of these hands... this may be a mistake, I don't have PS at work to check my math, but I think I'm ahead.

Now, for the rest of my range... KK, QQ are in pretty good shape, the A is a scare card, but if it missed him I'm golden. Ax is in his range though, probably AT+... I c-bet this about 80% of the time for about 2/3 to 3/4 pot here seeking information. I fold to anything larger than a 2xmin raise. If he flats it, likely I'm facing a pair of Aces and will not bet again unless I improve on the turn.

JJ, TT, 88, 66 - now we are getting into some trouble... I likely don't c-bet these hands without a read that he folds to c-bets more than 50% of the time. while we were likely ahead pre-flop we can't stand a lot of heat post flop... 88 leaves the straight draw open... but without improvement I'm not betting on it... All of these hands I fold to aggression by villian.

Flush Draw (Axsuited, KQsuited), well... I'm looking at two cards to come, 9 outs (for flush) + pairs, though I think you have to discount the pairs a bit, so let's be conservative and stick with say 9 outs. In this situation, with a roughly 30% or slightly better (discounting a bit for him potentially having As) I'm c-betting 3/4 pot to full pot. If I get raised... well, depends a lot on reads and bet size, but I'm likely calling the raise and re-evaluating on the turn...

Ok... Spoon, let me hear how bad this is