Dealing with variance

1st time poster, long time reader.

I have been playing micro stakes at Pokerstars for about 6 months. Bought in for $50, roll is now $174 (cashed out $50 three times). The problem is my roll was $235 two weeks ago.

This might sound (read) crazy, but every opponent that calls my pre flop raise cracks my big PP, or sucks out the str8 or flush on my 2pr and sets. Gut shots and runner runners are driving me crazy. And as far as pairing a hole card 1/3 of the time, not me. I'm at about 1/9 and the Ace flops with it (when I don't have one). This is a game of confidence and mine is about shot.

How do you guys deal with it? Do you take time off? Do u play through? Someone actually told me if my good hands aren't winning, I should bluff more with the marginals. Any truth to that?

Welcome.

This stuff happens, the faster you learn to just blow it off as variance you'll be just fine. While you are running back be very sure to be reviewing your hand histories to make sure you are not adding to any of the losses.

This is my very last played hand in a string of losses. I'm sure all u experts can point out numerous flaws, but I'm a novice. Here's the deal. Late in an 18 player 2 table SNG (10 minutes blinds). I stole the blinds in the two previous hands, attempting a third. Unless I fold pre flop, I can't get away from this hand. OPFOR has been playing solid.

PokerStars Game #10817274145: Tournament #54827812, $1.00+$0.20 Hold'em No Limit - Level VIII (200/400) - 2007/07/07 - 15:44:56 (ET)
Table '54827812 1' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: nobody 1 (1164 in chips)
Seat 4: HERO (6508 in chips)
Seat 5: nobody 5 (1824 in chips)
Seat 7: OPFOR (16214 in chips)
Seat 9: nobody 9 (1290 in chips)

nobody 9: posts small blind 200
nobody 1: posts big blind 400
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HERO [Ah 9s]
HERO: raises 400 to 800
nobody 5: folds
OPFOR: raises 400 to 1200
nobody 9: folds
nobody 1: folds
HERO: calls 400
*** FLOP *** [6c 9d 7c]
HERO: checks
OPFOR: bets 2000
HERO: calls 2000
*** TURN *** [6c 9d 7c] [2h]
HERO: checks
OPFOR: bets 12000
HERO said, "this is stupid, but"
HERO: calls 3283 and is all-in
*** RIVER *** [6c 9d 7c 2h] [5c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
HERO: shows [Ah 9s] (a pair of Nines)
OPFOR: shows [8h 8c] (a straight, Five to Nine)
OPFOR collected 13691 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***

The last 2 weeks it has been different versions of this. I get it heads up against opponent, and even though they have a 10% chance of even flopping a draw, my opponent flops his like 50% (or so it seems).

Side question. OPFOR was playing solid all game. Could I fold pre flop?
I put him on PP with PF reraise. I guess with that flop he either had overpair or set. But when I hit TPTK i started to wonder if he re raised only because of my two previous blind steals. I don't know. All i do know is that I am ahead when all my chips are in, and I'm losing.

There are only a few thing I've learnt about variance so far and here they are:

A) It can suck big time
B) It can kick ass
C) You need to thoroughly review an entire session or two and see if you are playing any differently to how you would on a "normal" run. If you are playing differently then this could be "prolonging" the variance type effect

Hi and welcome to FTR, it's good to have you here! If you are playing SNGs, feel free to post hands or full trimmed tourneys in the Sit N Go Tourney Tactics forum.

OK, on your A9 hand there are a few issues:

Preflop: Don't minraise preflop. Make it 1000-1200 to go in this spot. When you get re-raised, let it go against a big stacked opp who is playing solid. There is a cardinal rule here, when you are the second stack on the bubble, do not f**k with the big stack without a monster hand - particularly with THREE short stacks around. A9o is definitely not a monster hand here!

Flop: When you hit TPTK on the flop you have to BET, particularly on that flop which is very drawy. Why check/call here? If you bet and get called or raised, give up.

Turn: With THREE short stacks in the tourney with ~3x BB I would let it go right now. You can fold and still be second stack. The fact that opp raised preflop and now puts you AI on the flop says to me that you're likely beat here (by an overpair or a set).

Overall, whilst you were unlucky on the river on this hand over the long run you would be getting your chips in bad here.

Best way to improve is to post some hands/tourneys in the Sit N Go forum. We look forward to having you!

youre probably playing fine and just getting deck raped or are over playing mediocre hands in spots you need to be careful in.
Post more hands make less generalisations.

I take out a 50-dollar bill and burn it to remind myself money's not important.

Or I just walk away for an hour.

get that confidence back quickly...or better yet, if you know you are a winner...never lose it...completely. easier said than done. but, you wont make it to the WSOP2010 if you dont get it back.

no offense meant...welcome aboard.

as for variance..its part of it. there will be many times, while running hot, where you find yourself calling weak 2 pairs on big river bets only to find out you picked off a bluff.

it swings both ways...it will come back...frustrating, though, as it seems now.

Thanks guys. The adjustment I made is to play at the smallest stakes until i ride this downswing out. I've been playing the $1 SNGs and the $0.01/$0.02 ring games for the last few days. Normally play the $5 SNG and $0.05/$0.10 ring games. Still losing though.

As for the hand I posted, looking back I see I played it poorly. That's probably a result of my downswing. Regardless of the play, I was ahead when chips went in. Its been like that for two str8 weeks. I haven't been playing that long, but losing sessions every day for 15 days? What's the longest downswing for you players with years of experience?

if i am you, i dont drop stakes to "ride it out." you never know when it will turn around...but you know it will...if you win long term.

therefore, you will miss out on mucho dinero by the time you realize you are on the upswing again.

make sure you have the br for your stakes...and stay there...if its only a downswing.

nothing will piss you off more than taking a stack that was half of what you knew it should have been.

Originally Posted by taipan168

Preflop: Don't minraise preflop. Make it 1000-1200 to go in this spot. When you get re-raised, let it go against a big stacked opp who is playing solid. There is a cardinal rule here, when you are the second stack on the bubble, do not f**k with the big stack without a monster hand - particularly with THREE short stacks around. A9o is definitely not a monster hand here!

[

Thanks. That advice is consistent with most that I've read, but is the mini raise really that bad a play? Excuse my ignorance, but if my opponents fold weak and marginal hands to a mini raise, why put more chips out there? In the early stages of a tourney I vary my raises between 3 - 5Xbb. But in the later stages a mini raise of 400 chips usually works. Unless I'm playing a loose caller, then I'd increase the size of the raise.

The way I see it (probably why I'm losing), if my opponent shoves AI pre-flop, I get away from the hand cheaper if I'm weak. And if they call, I'm likely ahead. The problem in my posted hand was my opponent's mini re-raise. Had he pushed AI or even doubled my raise I would have let it go. I've never folded to a pre-flop mini re-raise initiated by me. I guess that's a hole i need to plug.

I hear ya chopper. But losing a $3 buy-in vs a $10 buy-in is a big difference in my bankroll. I will not send Pokerstars anymore money. I promised myself the $50 initial deposit would be all. Of course if I get rolled I know I'll buy back in. I have no problem grinding the penny tables. I'm not playing for the income yet.

Originally Posted by 2010 WSOP Champ

Originally Posted by taipan168

Preflop: Don't minraise preflop. Make it 1000-1200 to go in this spot. When you get re-raised, let it go against a big stacked opp who is playing solid. There is a cardinal rule here, when you are the second stack on the bubble, do not f**k with the big stack without a monster hand - particularly with THREE short stacks around. A9o is definitely not a monster hand here!

Thanks. That advice is consistent with most that I've read, but is the mini raise really that bad a play? Excuse my ignorance, but if my opponents fold weak and marginal hands to a mini raise, why put more chips out there? In the early stages of a tourney I vary my raises between 3 - 5Xbb. But in the later stages a mini raise of 400 chips usually works. Unless I'm playing a loose caller, then I'd increase the size of the raise.

I guess in this specific hand it isn't too bad because you're calling a push by the short stacks anyway, but if that's your strategy then you need to fold if the big stack re-raises. Under normal circumstances never minraise preflop at low buyins, you'll get a bunch of callers and be left playing a marginal hand OOP.

Originally Posted by 2010 WSOP Champ

The way I see it (probably why I'm losing), if my opponent shoves AI pre-flop, I get away from the hand cheaper if I'm weak. And if they call, I'm likely ahead. The problem in my posted hand was my opponent's mini re-raise. Had he pushed AI or even doubled my raise I would have let it go. I've never folded to a pre-flop mini re-raise initiated by me. I guess that's a hole i need to plug.

I just let it go preflop. If you want to call the minraise you need to play very carefully and NOT go broke with just one pair - and the reason I fold is that you don't have implied odds to make 2 pair or better.

Post some more hands, that's the best way to improve!

...post them in the SnG section.

welcome to FTR.

i just noticed the hand was a tourney hand. that must mean you are mostly playing tourneys? if so...

1) the variance in tourneys is incredible. you could be fine, but be losing confidence due to 15 non-cashes in a row...and it still not be you.
2) to further that point...i dabble in tourneys, too. and, my last 4 tourneys i have been knocked out...at different stages...with AK!!! i missed every flop. i went up against KK v QQv AKs, AK v JJ, AK v KQ, AK v A3...and lost them all. not necessarily my fault. when you pick up AK on a shorter stack...you will play it aggressively almost all the time. i'm sure you know that, though.
3) if you dont mind dropping and playing smaller tourneys..fine. good for you, most cant.

4) try playing some ring games, if you dont. the urgency is almost never there...so be much more patient. you can sit for an hour...two....all day. you can multi-table for as long as you want, too. the games are still very soft at the lower levels. play abc poker (sort of a grind), but you WILL build your roll back to where it was.

i figure there are a lot of us in here that use cash games to supply our tourney BI's. or that keep a cash game br, and dip into it for the occasional tourney.

much steadier income, imo. but, learning to play both types of NL will help round out your game. you will learn things in one area that will come in useful in the other. same can be said of limit v NL v other games. they ALL teach you something that you can use in the other games you play.

hope that helped.

I get the feeling u guys don't want me to post hands here. I'm not trying to be a cry baby, but i guess my play is being affected. I just lost another SNG when I was ahead with the money in. That's not the problem, its the how.

Opp put me all in every time I raised(microstake donk). Folded 4 times. 5th time, I raise AJs Opp goes AI, I insta-call. Opp has KQo and flops the darned str8. Me, TPTK. Granted AJs isn't a monster, but I felt I was ahead given my opp. Can't wait around for rockets, right?

Chopper,
I do play alot of SNGs. Definitely more SNGs than ring games. I'll give the rings more time. Problem for me is it is boring when u get dead cards. At least in an SNG the well timed blind steal is worthwhile. Stealing blinds in ring games don't seem worth the risk.

Ring games it is. I remember reading somewhere that boring poker is winning poker.

i would have done the same thing in your SNG. when someone does that to you, i feel you have little choice but to use that to the best advantage you can. but, when you're running bad, it still backfires. oh well. can you say, "RE-BUY?" ...i knew you could.

Originally Posted by 2010 WSOP Champ

Chopper,
I do play alot of SNGs. Definitely more SNGs than ring games. I'll give the rings more time. Problem for me is it is boring when u get dead cards. At least in an SNG the well timed blind steal is worthwhile. Stealing blinds in ring games don't seem worth the risk.

as for dead cards...

open up several tables. the dead cards are less frequent. if you can sit 5 minutes...which b/c of tourneys, i hope you can...you will catch some playable stuff in rings.

think about it. if you had opened up 50 tables, you wouldnt have to wait long for aces, would you? the more you open, the more you can wait for premiums...and not get bored. but, the easier it is to read you, too. you have to find the line...and walk it gingerly.

Chopper,

I don't win when i play more than 2 tables at a time. Too hard to keep track of all the players (very important in microstakes). That's how I made my money. Killing donks with my premium holdings. It's important to know who they are. I figure that skill will come in time. Easy for u guys.

I shouldn't call people donks. I'm probably one. lol

Any other players out there drop to lower stakes when u r running bad? Heard arguments both ways. Me, I drop.

Originally Posted by 2010 WSOP Champ

I get the feeling u guys don't want me to post hands here.

It's not that we don't want you to post hands here, it's just that if you post your hands in the SnG section then all the SnG regulars will be able to review your hands as some of the SnG forum regulars don't look in this section.

Originally Posted by Chopper

i would have done the same thing in your SNG.

The way that hand was played was -EV. Tai analysis was spot on as ever, SnGs are swingy but losing the 2nd biggest stack on the bubble with a marginal hand is not good...

Badger,

Chopper was talking about a different hand. Everyone agrees I played my posted hand poorly.

My bad, I really should read the thread properly. It's impossible to give advice on AJ hand without stack sizes as there are times when he could flip over KQ and it would still be correct to fold AJ. Probably fine though.

hey, about his posted hand...

somebody needs to explain to me where exactly he went wrong.

first, personally, I wouldnt have been in the hand to begin with for the following...
1) you are not in a short enough position that you need to be making any "moves."
2) you said you stole the blinds the two previous hands. dont try it a third time w/o a monster. you are losing your image/respect and starting to look LAGgy.
3) you are further OOP from when you first stole the blinds. your hand requirement needs to be tighter, imo, from here.

that said, somebody please tell me the mistake he made post flop! now that we can see the cards...

1) he hit TPTK. do you ALL fold to a bet immediately?
2) he got the money in (albeit inadvertantly) with the best hand at the moment...

and got sucked out on.

we didnt know that in the midst of the hand, so, you can berate him all you want to about how he shouldnt have been IN the hand...on any street. but, the fact still remains...

mathematically, it should have worked out for him.

pf, he was in a race.
flop, he is a 60/40 favorite
turn, he jumps to 75/25 favorite

he's running bad, and this is how...make bad (open to debate) decision pre-flop, hit flop as favorite (but with board, you dont know where you stand), improve on turn (unbeknownst to you), and take a bad beat on the chin by the river.

one day, you will be in the same situation, and it will hold up. you still will not have known you were ahead, but when you see that you were, you will say...

"man, i'm running hot!!"

Originally Posted by badgers

My bad, I really should read the thread properly. It's impossible to give advice on AJ hand without stack sizes as there are times when he could flip over KQ and it would still be correct to fold AJ. Probably fine though.

i am not trying to be an antagonist, but...

when is it wrong to fold AJ v KQ? obviously, you cant know the exact cards pf, but AJ is always favored pf to KQ.

if i have AJ, am shorty, and push into the table...someone calls with KQ, i am THRILLED.

but, i dont call pushes with AJ...unless guy is super aggro. and, i think this guy (in the example) was.

i am open to math or other reasons to fold AJ there...

Originally Posted by Chopper

if i have AJ, am shorty, and push into the table...someone calls with KQ, i am THRILLED.

You shouldn't be. Your goal isn't to get the chips in as a slight favorite, is it?

I'd much rather pick up the blinds. I'm not upset that KQ calls, but I'm certainly not thrilled. When Jx calls, I'm a tad happier.

Originally Posted by sejje

Originally Posted by Chopper

if i have AJ, am shorty, and push into the table...someone calls with KQ, i am THRILLED.

You shouldn't be. Your goal isn't to get the chips in as a slight favorite, is it?

I'd much rather pick up the blinds. I'm not upset that KQ calls, but I'm certainly not thrilled. When Jx calls, I'm a tad happier.

dont misunderstand me. my intention, as short stack, is to steal blinds...but with something still favorable if called to get a chance to double up. i love doing this with AX (the higher the kicker the more it helps, obv), as any unpaired holding calling me needs to pair something on the board to take away my high card A when we both whiff the whole board. i would rather push my short stack with A9 than KQ because of the times we both miss all 5 cards.

when short stacked, you cant necessarily pick and choose your edges. yes, you want the biggest edge you can find...and 60/40 works for me. it beats AK v QQ, imo.

that isnt the case in the posted hand.

but, in the AJ example...if a super aggro is pushing over all my raises (the last 6 in a row to reference the example), i relish the chance to get him to push over my AJ. if he is willing to push over all my raises, his range is WAY wider than my AJ, and i have him beat prolly 2 out of every 3 times (just an estimate...no math backing) he will do this against my AJ...i like those odds.

but, like i said, i am not CALLING a push with AJ very often when i have the villain covered. no point in that when i have so little invested before any cards come.

Originally Posted by Chopper

hey, about his posted hand...

somebody needs to explain to me where exactly he went wrong.

first, personally, I wouldnt have been in the hand to begin with for the following...
1) you are not in a short enough position that you need to be making any "moves."
2) you said you stole the blinds the two previous hands. dont try it a third time w/o a monster. you are losing your image/respect and starting to look LAGgy.
3) you are further OOP from when you first stole the blinds. your hand requirement needs to be tighter, imo, from here.

Agreed with all of the above. SNGs are games of preflop decisions, so the real error that OP made in the hand was calling the re-raise. There is a very very good chance that he's dominated here.

Originally Posted by Chopper

that said, somebody please tell me the mistake he made post flop!

1) he hit TPTK. do you ALL fold to a bet immediately?

Hero should have bet the flop and given up if called or raised. Remember opp re-raised preflop so there's a real risk of an overpair here or, less likely, a set.

Originally Posted by Chopper

2) he got the money in (albeit inadvertantly) with the best hand at the moment...

and got sucked out on.

we didnt know that in the midst of the hand, so, you can berate him all you want to about how he shouldnt have been IN the hand...on any street. but, the fact still remains...

True, but a) he was definitely behind the range of hands that opp would have had and b) he was up against the big stack on the bubble with a weak TPTK. There were way way way more hands that beat Hero when the money went in than hands that Hero was ahead of IMO.

Originally Posted by Chopper

Originally Posted by badgers

My bad, I really should read the thread properly. It's impossible to give advice on AJ hand without stack sizes as there are times when he could flip over KQ and it would still be correct to fold AJ. Probably fine though.

i am not trying to be an antagonist, but...

when is it wrong to fold AJ v KQ? obviously, you cant know the exact cards pf, but AJ is always favored pf to KQ.

if i have AJ, am shorty, and push into the table...someone calls with KQ, i am THRILLED.

but, i dont call pushes with AJ...unless guy is super aggro. and, i think this guy (in the example) was.

i am open to math or other reasons to fold AJ there...

I mean exactly what I said, there are times in a SnG where it would be correct to fold AJ knowing that you are against EXACTLY KQ. Because I am lazy here's a link to Taipan's post. http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...oker-56793.htm

Give opp KQ face up, yourself AJ and it is correct to fold, and it's not even close. Obviously in a cash game this advice would be ludicrous but $EV and chipEV are not the same here.

It is also correct to fold AA preflop in some extreme instances, such as on the bubble of a sattellite with everyone else AI and you have the short stack.

I didn't even use maths in that whole post as I know how much you hate maths

that last line was funny, badger. are you 2nd leveling me there? lol.

i see your point about stack sizes being extremely important, but with it face up...dont you have to take a 60/40 shot when you're the 60? i dont know how many of those you get in tourneys.

on the bubble, i can also see a case for folding when not an 80/20 fav, especially when short-stacked...let the others fight it out, and default your way into the cash.

tiapan, i understand the argument...and i wanted someone to show exactly what you showed...thanks. there are sooo many math wizards here, that i wanted someone else to show where even though the math says call...you have to use logic about villains range to lay it down. (prolly where badger got his comments )

and it IS all about the "range" of hands that the villains would be carrying against you that makes your decision here...there is no way of knowing the maths...you cant see the cards...yet.

all i was pointing out was that with the cards face up (as we know they werent), he was ahead...and took a bit of a beat. that happens when we run poorly...in reference to OP.

i wont dispute that he still should have folded w/o seeing the cards...a top pair of a 9 is WAY too vulnerable...always, imo.

tiapan, i understand the argument...and i wanted someone to show exactly what you showed...thanks. there are sooo many math wizards here, that i wanted someone else to show where even though the math says call...you have to use logic about villains range to lay it down. (prolly where badger got his comments )

and it IS all about the "range" of hands that the villains would be carrying against you that makes your decision here...there is no way of knowing the maths...you cant see the cards...yet.

all i was pointing out was that with the cards face up (as we know they werent), he was ahead...and took a bit of a beat. that happens when we run poorly...in reference to OP.

i wont dispute that he still should have folded w/o seeing the cards...a top pair of a 9 is WAY too vulnerable...always, imo.

just another example i like to point out where your logic/instincts can overrule the true math of the hand.

sorry for the double post...computer burped.

lol. now a triple...

Originally Posted by Chopper

i see your point about stack sizes being extremely important, but with it face up...dont you have to take a 60/40 shot when you're the 60? i dont know how many of those you get in tourneys.

It's because it's the bubble. We can't afford to bubble out here, it's an ICM calculation (or just use SnG Wiz) but you need to be at least 70% to make this a profitable call. You make your money in SnGs when you are first to act, and you take advantage of the fact that opp cannot call without a good hand.

makes sense. i never used the programs, but i, instinctively, like to be the pusher not the pushee.

Still on the downward spiral. The ring game thing isn't working out any better. My big hands just go down to bigger hands. I never realized how often big pocket pairs are dealt to multiple players. Oh well. Roll is down to $142.

I'm in a cheapy tourney now ($0.25), after that I'm playing stud. Until I get my groove back. This losing streak has really affected my play. I think everybody is bluffing and I call them down, and sure enough they have the goods darn near every time. It's amazing people do this for a living.

you are experiencing the same thing we all go through...provided you are not playing 83o aggressively...lol.

remember, the cash game thing is different than a tourney...no one is going to HAVE to make a move soon. they can leave when they want, and reload when they want...if they have the money...they cant go busto.

therefore, they dont HAVE to play A3o on the button. they may, but they can wait until a "tourney guy" raises from mp with it, and pick him off with AJs.

one of my biggest adjustments from tourney to ring was that...PATIENCE. you can sit and nut camp all day long, and make some money at the lower stakes. its not fun, but its profitable. the bigger winrates come from the guys who learn to nut camp...then open up from there.

remember, no one is forcing you to call with TT preflop when you raised...and got reraised by a tight player who has position on you. only YOU make that call...you can fold to big raises in ring...in fact, a lot of the time its profitable to. but, thats your decision, not mine...

YES!!! Back in business baby. I placed 2nd in a fixed limit Omaha MTT ($58), and top 20 in my last 2 NLHE MTT ($29 combined). I played NLHE ring games (.02/.04) using the double up strategy (double up then leave). I've abandoned the SnG. No more! I cashed out another $50 and bankroll is at $157.

This will be my strategy for future downswings in Texas. Drop down to smaller limits and play other games. Chopper's "nut camp" startegy for ring games is an excellent strategy for pot limit Omaha. All u can do is ride it out, i guess. I just wanna do it as cheap as possible (because not playing is not an option).

now that you have $150+...move up to the 10NL tables...you have 15 buy-ins. that should be enough, if you are simply "nut camping."

when you go over $300, start taking shots at 25NL.

remember, if you hit variance (or start playing stooopid), move back down. my number would be 25 buy-ins for the LOWER LEVEL.

example.

you have $300. you shoot at 25 NL, you lose your shirt. down to $240...drop to the 10's until you go above $300 again.

you give yourself one hellofacushion that way.

Just a quick observation: you're WAY too results oriented. It's understandable - it's human nature, and with a small BR all the little ups and downs are going to feel magnified. But you've got to learn to ignore it. Getting sucked out on happens so often, and is such an intrinsic feature of the game, that it really isn't worthy of comment.

If you notice, the experienced players on the site only ever mention bad beats (if they do at all) if they're funny, or *massively* unlikely, or happen at a terrible time - you learn to not even notice them, and you need to learn this, because otherwise you'll tilt, wallow in self-pity, or handicap your own game by simply blaming bad luck when there are always leaks to be fixed.

Post some cashgame hands! Whilst variance is a part of the game, leaks combined with negative variance can make for obscene downswings.

I played my 1st deep stack tourney (3000 chips) today and it was great. I didn't realize how much of a difference the starting stack made. Allowed for alot more poker early on. I placed 158th (made 12 bucks on $5 but in), but still disappointed. I haven't final tabled a tourney yet. At the end of the day I can't win races.

I am consistently taking a profit from my ring games. Only problem is I can't play deep stack ring. It's mental. I find myself abandoning hands to stack threatening bets for fear of losing the profit I spent the last 90 minutes making. Opponents pick up on this and I have to bail the table. But when your big hands go down to bigger hands, it's hard to be confident.

Boindino,

Ur right, I am results oriented. Even though I'm relatively new to the game, I feel I should win consistently at the micro stakes. 3 weeks of losses at this level made me question my game. The session result is my only scorecard.

dont play deepstacked, if not comfortable...buy in half at a ds table, and play ds when you have the house's money.

sounds like the same thing, but at the micros...ds players are less likely to go in w/o the nuts...even to a shorter stack, provided youre still 100 bb's deep.

you can do some real bullying there, if you know what you are doing.

i've been doing ok lately at absolute. they allow 200 bb BI's, but most buy in for 100. therefore, you can find lots of tables with a couple over 200...and take advantage of their nittyness, if you know what i mean.

Originally Posted by 2010 WSOP Champ

I am consistently taking a profit from my ring games. Only problem is I can't play deep stack ring. It's mental. I find myself abandoning hands to stack threatening bets for fear of losing the profit I spent the last 90 minutes making. Opponents pick up on this and I have to bail the table. But when your big hands go down to bigger hands, it's hard to be confident.

Boindino,

Ur right, I am results oriented. Even though I'm relatively new to the game, I feel I should win consistently at the micro stakes. 3 weeks of losses at this level made me question my game. The session result is my only scorecard.

Regarding your comments in the first paragraph: That is a classic symptom of playing a game too big for your bankroll. I know you said you were playing the .2/.4 with a $150 BR but there is a post on this site somewhere by Gingerwizard (I think) about the Utility of a given amount of money to the individual. In short, he points out that if you FEEL that $10 is a lot of $$ then even if you have a 10k BR you should not play 10NL because your hangup affects your ability to make proper decisions. If anyone can point to the post please do. If you can't "not care" then you're playing too high, or just need to step back for a while.

Regarding the 2nd paragraph: In the end we are all results oriented. But the way we define results varies. I've had days where I finished out of the money on 10 consecutive SNG. I've also had days where I went 9/10 in the money with 4 or 5 wins. At ring, I've had downswings of 10 buyins in a couple weeks, and upswings to match. As you will read over and over again on this forum, 10,000 hands is NOT LONG TERM!!!!! If you're down for the week or month, you're probably fine. If down for the year, you may have a problem.

If you haven't already please read this:
http://www.flopturnriver.com/Newbie-...-Of-Death.html

GL

i recently had a downswing and just didn't know how to fix it.

what i did to fix was that i started raising more. i started cbetting pot a lot more pushed out a lot of weaker hands. in the past i was cbetting 2/3 pot and was getting too many callers for my liking.

when you're on a downrun, push your hands hard, don't be afraid to get people to fold. and play a bit tighter (if you play quite loose usually).
play hands like AA really hard. bet pot pot pot and put people in tough situations. you don't want to see showdowns and you dont want to get outdrawn on. if people do want to draw out on you make them pay.

gop2004

That was a great link. That sounded all too familiar. Thanks. Now about my "Utility of a given amount of money", I am not concerned about the actual "money". It is about the time spent making a profit, then losing it in one hand, knowing full well this guy isn't gonna give it back (they usually leave the table). I see ur point, but I don't think it applies to me. I'm not playing for income yet. I chalk this flaw up to lack of deep stack ring game experience. Thanks again!


pokerroomace

Believe me when I say I have overbet my strong holdings. This is how I built my bankroll. At the microstakes u almost always get a caller. I can't tell u how many times I've pushed AI with AA on a nothing pot at get called by AK or AQ (and much, much, much worse). Problem is, lately those dogs are winning. It seems u play higher stakes than I do, in the land where pot sized bets mean something.



My upswing was short-lived. Bankroll down to $130. Didn't have much time for poker so just played SnGs. Can't win the big pots. But at least u guys have made me feel better about it. I really shouldn't complain. I bought in for $50, cashed out $200, and still have $130 roll. It's just that losing really does suck (and the longer u do it, the more it does). Are my expectations for microstakes unrealistic. I figured I would just clean up with all the loose maniacal players. I used to, but my opponents crap hands are killing me now. Maybe I should follow Chopper's advice and move up in stakes and play "real poker". But shouldn't a good poker player just kill at microstakes?

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

This stuff happens, the faster you learn to just blow it off as variance you'll be just fine.

In my experience, it usually has alot more to do with poor play and leaks in a person's game, then it does with "variance".
I see alot of people just "blow it off as variance" when they are losing when it really isn't 'variance' at all.
This only serves to prolong the losing streak, and maximize losses.

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

While you are running bad be very sure to be reviewing your hand histories to make sure you are not adding to any of the losses.

Excellent advice.
This is where the problem lies maybe 90% of the time, IMO.

OP posted a hand with A-9 which I think was absolutely massacred.
Hands like this can't be attributed to poor play not variance.

Move up to where they respect your raises

You suck at the SnG format.

SnGs reward people for not gambling early, punishing gamblers with big edges, then doing ICM-driven pushes late with a little actual inspired poker play every now and then.

No, I just suck. I might as well face that fact. To be a good long term player, one must be able to deal with the dreaded variance. I was able to get my stack back up to $155, but I cashed out $100 and took some time off (6 weeks). My problem remains the same. My big hands ALWAYS go down.

Since my return to play, i have been pokerstar's red-headed stepchild. OPP just luvs me now. One opponent told me (through chat) that his note on me was "to chase ANY draw". The hand that destroyed my bankroll and confidence was fitting. QJ d on button. MP2 makes 5bb raise, CU calls as do I. I flop Broadway with nut flush draw (royal draw as well). Long story short, all the money is in the middle, and I had them both covered. Turn is an ace, river is a queen. Yes! Yes! Yes! AK takes main pot, AQ takes side pot. Sad thing is, I wasn't shocked, it really didn't surprise me. I can grind out small profits but never the big huge pots. My big hands always go down. That's the major hole in my game. Sets go down to bigger sets, flushes to river boats, and yes, boats to quads.

Doyle Brunson said (not a quote) that to be successful in poker, u have to be lucky. That's the plain old truth. Poker is for the lucky. Skill is what separates the great poker luck box from the average poker luck box.

This is a great forum though. Lots of good stuff here. And again, I shouldn't complain. I made a few hundred bucks while being entertained. I've got three bucks left. I will play the $0.25 and $0.10 tourneys until broke. Take care and continued success guys. If you ever see this buried thread.

2010 WSOP Viewer

Originally Posted by Triptanes

Move up to where they respect your raises

Originally Posted by 2010 WSOP Champ

If you ever see this buried thread.

OP doesn't seem to understand forums.

This is not an issue though! Keep playing pokahs! Read more, learn, continue, improve, profit etc. etc.

Oh had I read your thread properly the first time i would have done this...

Originally Posted by What badgers would have

Originally Posted by 2010 WSOP Champ

Too hard to keep track of all the players (very important in microstakes)

LOL!

But it's too late to do that now.

Anyway, good luck with life and everything and stuff.

I can't really offer you any advice except that your ideas of poker and what constitutes a winning/good player are way off.