@chardrian
I know this.. that's why I circumvented this problem by going for all-ins.

If you want to be realistic, there are two uncertainties to add into the equation:
- if it doesn't hit on the river, you will face a raise. This adds to the cost.
- if it hits on either turn or river, the so-called implied odds will boost the pot in your favor. This adds to the benefits.

So one things adds to the cost, one things adds to the benefits. So if you auto-pay on the turn, 2/3 the turn raise bites you, 1/3 the turn+river raises add to your stack. So for easy calculating, I assumed both would cancel each-other out.


Side-note: just finished an MTT. The only times I won some money were 2/3 of my draws hitting home. (one straight, one flush) Then I took the pot once with AA and all folds, and got destacked with QQ vs AA. Place 200 of 700 people. Pretty horrible luck on getting dealt the 'power' cards. The only thing that kept me in there was playing those lower-odds-high-potential-payoff draws. That was pretty nice lol Knowing my odds really kept me calm and on the ball there.