EV question

took this question from another thread, changed it around a little to better suit what im asking.

Hero is OTB , the SB is a winning reg who 3 bets 7% out of the blinds and folds his sb to steal 80% of the time. The BB is a nit reg who folds 89% to steals and runs 14/10 at 6 max. It is folded round, action to hero. whats our opening size and why?

2-2.5xBB villians are tight and i would open a super wide range here.
were risking 2BBs to win 1.5 profit. so to be +EV :
they will both fold at least 80%,
so 8/10 of the time we win 1.5BBs
20% or 2/10 of the time we will lose 2-2.5BBs( if we never continue after initial steal)
So 8*1.5 = +12
And 2*2 (2.5)= -4(-5)
So our EV is +8(7) BBs/100 situations??

why does this seem semi-retarted looking to me? can someone point out what the hell im processing incorrectly?

we risk 2 to win 1.5. we will win the pot 0.8 * 0.89 = 0.712. so we take it pre 71.2% of the time. assuming we never win a pot that goes to the flop (not true, we always have some equity) then

the EV of them folding is:
0.712 * 1.5 = 1.068
and the EV of them calling is
(1-0.712) * -2 = -0.576
1.068 - 0.576 = 0.492
and that's our total EV of the raise assuming no postflop equity

edit: the above assumes one villain folds exactly 80% of the time and the other exactly 89%. it also assumes we are min-raising our button. which i think is our best default size in this situation given the villains as described.

these threads may help you out.

http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...-a-152792.html

http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...se-173291.html

Originally Posted by rpm

these threads may help you out.

http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...-a-152792.html

http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...se-173291.html

Thank you sir, for both posts. Exactly what I needed.

i was missing a negative symbol in the EV of them folding bit. but you get the gist of it. no problems.