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EV of a shove - my attempt

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  1. #2
    daviddem's Avatar
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    Aug 2009
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    Let me redo this for you:

    - Villain's range after his cbet: 99+,AQs+,KsQs,AQo+
    Combos: 99(3),TT(6),JJ(3),QQ(6),KK(6),AA(3),AQ(12),AK(12), KsQs(1) = 52 combos
    Note that there are only 3 combos for 99 because there is a 9 on the board. AA and JJ also have 3 combos each because you hold one A and one J. AK has 12 (3 aces times 4 kings because you are holding one ace), and so does AQ, and obviously KsQs has only one.

    - Villain calls your shove with: 99+,KsQs
    Combos: 99(3),TT(6),JJ(3),QQ(6),KK(6),AA(3),KsQs(1) = 28 combos

    So he folds (52-28)/52 = 46.1% of the time, in which case your profit will be 3.85+3.25 = 7.10

    Your equity with AsJs against 99+,KsQs on a 9s5s5h board is 38.8%:
    Code:
    Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
    
      27,720  games     0.005 secs     5,544,000  games/sec
    
    Board: 9s 5s 5h
    Dead:  
    
    equity  win  tie  pots won  pots tied    
    Hand 0:     38.777%      38.76%     00.02%              10743             6.00   { AsJs }
    Hand 1:     61.223%      61.20%     00.02%              16965             6.00   { 99+, KsQs }
    So when he calls, 38.8% of the time you win and your profit on your 25.60 shove investment will be 3.85 + his 25.60 = 29.45 and 61.2% of the time you loose and your loss will be what you invested in the shove: 25.60

    EV(he folds) = 0.461*7.10 = 3.2731
    EV(he calls) = 0.539*(0.388*29.45 - 0.612*25.60) = -2.2857
    Total EV = $0.9874

    Note: if you want to do this perfectly, you also have to remove the rake from your profits! Let's say about $0.4 if he folds and $3 if he calls. Your EV becomes $0.175 !!
    Last edited by daviddem; 02-19-2010 at 08:05 AM.

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