flop set. raised turn by nit

opp 9/7 AFq 73 over 345 hands

his preflop range is: 56s+,79s+, A2s+, A9o+, suited/unsuited broadways, 22+

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

SB ($4.68)
Hero (BB) ($10)
UTG ($10.44)
UTG+1 ($8.15)
MP1 ($7.75)
MP2 ($14.91)
MP3 ($7.90)
CO ($14.18)
Button ($12.05)

Preflop: Hero is BB with ,
6 folds, Button bets $0.30, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.65) , , (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $0.47, Hero calls $0.47

i didnt bet the flop because i knew he cbets 100% when checked to, i first wanted to c/r but i didnt because then i wanted to keep his range as wide as possible.

after talking in IRC with the guys, i realized that betting the flop and c/r are a lot better then c/c , since there are a lot of worse hands then mine that call here. so my first mistake is c/c the flop. i should have bet/3bet ( if case) and get all in on flop

Turn: ($1.59) (2 players)
Hero bets $1.06, Button raises to $3.60,

when he raises me, my only options as i see them in my opinion are folding or shoving. i rule out calling since there a lot of scary river cards for me( hearts, spades, K, J) and if any of them comes w/ me OOP i really would be in a weird spot that i rather evoid by shoving or folding turn.

folding also seem very very nitty so i made the next analyze:

pot is already 1,59+1,06+3,60=6,25 and i have left 8,17 ; so i shove and he calls my pot odds will be 8,17/(6,25+8,17+8,17)=8,17/22,59= 36% pot odds.

my range for him to raise turn and call my shove is AA,QQ,77,AQ,KJ. i can add some more combos,the first range i thought he does this was AA,QQ,77,AQ,KJ,AT, KQss,QJss,JTss,89ss,AKhh,AJhh,89hh but this is the tightest range i think he raises and calls a turn shove.

vs this range i have 43,71% equity and with 36% pot odds i find this a +EV shove.

my question for you is:

is my range ok for him raising and calling a turn shove or he has a tighter range for playing a turn like this?

I think that his range is a bit wider than the one that you listed.
I understand your line of thought for the flop, but by not betting we allow him to keep playing all kinds of Ax and Kx. You def could be looking at an overset, a made straight, a couple of different nut flush draws or possibly even just top two. (but I doubt that he'd call the shove with Top2pr)
And yes, I'd shove; smile; reload if necessary.

9/7 is not playing that wide preflop

it's probably along the lines of AQo, AQs , KJs AA QQ 77 for raising this turn.

your sizing on the turn is not good either

pot is already 1,59+1,06+3,60=6,25 and i have left 8,17 ; so i shove and he calls my pot odds will be 8,17/(6,25+8,17+8,17)=8,17/22,59= 36% pot odds.

my range for him to raise turn and call my shove is AA,QQ,77,AQ,KJ. i can add some more combos,the first range i thought he does this was AA,QQ,77,AQ,KJ,AT, KQss,QJss,JTss,89ss,AKhh,AJhh,89hh but this is the tightest range i think he raises and calls a turn shove.

vs this range i have 43,71% equity and with 36% pot odds i find this a +EV shove.

This is wrong. It's good that you tried to do the math, but you are getting badly mixed up here.

You can shove for value only if you have more than 50% equity against his calling range, end of story (considering that he never folds a better hand here). When you bet or raise, YOU are laying pot odds for HIM, not for yourself. You have to calculate your pot odds and your equity when you consider CALLING a bet, raise or shove, not when DOING the betting/raising/shoving.

If your range is correct and you only have 43% against his calling range and he never folds a better hand, then don't shove. Consider calling because the direct pot odds on your call are 29%, you have at least 43% equity and you may have some implied odds when you draw to a boat vs his straights. Although the implied odds story is arguable because you are OOP and he is a nit.

I also agree that your preflop range is too wide for a 9/7. What is his attempt to steal on the button (ATS)?

I agree with a c/r on the flop (if as you say he cbets 100%). And I also agree that your turn sizing is bad, because if he just calls, you will not have the stacks set up to get as much money in as possible on the river.

edit: note that to get back to your question in OP, I think the range you gave is probably the one he raises that turn with (pretty much as Bikes said), but I don't think he calls a shove with AQ. You were talking about keeping his range as wide as possible on the flop, but it's really on this turn after his raise that you want to do that.

his turn value raising range is easily wide enough to get the money in here and feel fine about it

your smaller turn sizing could have induced something anyways

FWIW I was not trying to say whether it is correct to shove or not here, just explaining an error in his reasoning.

It's true that OP c/c otf and smallish donk ott could look like a draw, but it could also be seen to try to induce if he hit a big hand with the Qs.

Here are a few tentative call-a-shove ranges for a 9/7 and Hero's corresponding equity:
AA,QQ,77,AhKh,AQs,AhJh,Ah9h,KhQh,KsQs,KJs,AQo 58.5%
AA,QQ,77,AQs,KJs,AQo 55.2%
AA,QQ,77,AQs,AQo,KJo 43.7%
AA,QQ,77,KJs 30.4%
AA,QQ,77,KJs,KJo 26.7%

Do you think flatting the raise is totally horrible if we're up against the slightly < 50% equity range? (not saying it's the case, but assuming we are?)

i'm with spenda. as played 3b jam the turn and expect to be called by

you beat:
AK(12), AQ(9), AT(3),77 (3) = 27 combos
beats you
KJ (16), AA(3) = 19 combos.

he probably also has the 3 combos of QT in his range which we beat as well, if his ATS is 12-15% or more.

edit: i forgot he can have QQ here. so "beats you" could have an extra 3 combos. even still, shove = +ev imo

his ATS is 17% . i gave him that wide range preflop cause he was stealing a lot in that session. my stats for 10nl are nittier then i was at 5nl. i am 10/8 over 10k hands ( and 3BB/100, not a lot, but happy i am winning and not losing ). also SB ,even shorstack as he was, was playing 7/5, so was reasonable to assume he tries to steal a lot more then ussual with me and the SB so tight to his left. maybe is a wrong assumption.

calling again doesnt seem ok to me. if i call, on river pot is 8,85 and i would have left 5,6 in my stack. probably any heart/spade/K/J on river will be a c/f for me ;but a blank river i cant check or b/f with my remaining stack, right? so i am going AI anyway on blank rivers.

that's why i ruled out calling turn.

Do you understand the mistake you made with your math in your OP? That is important.

Shoving is good if his call-a-shove range is on the looser side as some of the better players above seem to think it is.

If his calling range is tighter and you get less than 50% equity against it, then shoving can't be good. However calling and doing something along the lines of c/c a blank river or shoving if you boat up or c/f ugly rivers seems reasonable to me. I may be wrong though, that is why I asked the question above.

i understand very well what you said about math in my post and i already knew that, i did the math like that ( like when he is shoving) cause i am pretty sure he is calling my shove with his entire raising range ( AA,QQ,77,AQ,KJ).

anyway, when i shove he is getting 3:1 pot odds so his calling my shove range could be a lot wider and can include straight draws+ FD, like KQss,QJss,AKhh,AJhh and some others.

"i didnt bet the flop because i knew he cbets 100% when checked to, i first wanted to c/r but i didnt because then i wanted to keep his range as wide as possible."

Need to consider the board here. 2 straight draws and a FD. You need to protect your hand while jamming the pot ASAP.
As played REJAM and ask poker gods for paired board.

Why would you ever jam $9.70 in a $0.65 pot

i think he's using "jam" to mean "start putting money in".

Ah my bad, somehow I've always had in mind that jamming and shoving were the same thing.

yeah they are. i'll stop speaking for other people now.

I dunno, I consider putting 3/4 of your stack in with an overbet to be jamming, but not shoving. There's the most subtle of differences.

Bob - Jamming

you have to raise the flop, for a lot of reasons.

only AA beats you, nearly all others are looking to improve. if you call the flop you give them an easy fold to your turn bet, or let them out draw you and give you a tough call. Raise the flop and let them make the error.

If the pot grows on the flop its going to give you better equity on the turn for the shove too if they improve and raise like happened in your hand. I don't quite understand the maths though. much to learn, much to learn.

just nitpicking here, but isn't the preflop range you are assigning to villain too wide, even for a positionally aware player?

yeah his pre range is tighter. I would take out a good number of SC's and include KJ+
I raise flop b/c he's a nit and a 3rd spade will kill his action and you wont make money on your set.

As played, Shove turn. You must be ahead of his range and have outs to boat up if you need it. Dont feel bad when he turns over AA or KJ

i'd jam my boat on the river and sail home with money in the bank