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flop set. raised turn by nit

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  1. #4
    daviddem's Avatar
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    pot is already 1,59+1,06+3,60=6,25 and i have left 8,17 ; so i shove and he calls my pot odds will be 8,17/(6,25+8,17+8,17)=8,17/22,59= 36% pot odds.

    my range for him to raise turn and call my shove is AA,QQ,77,AQ,KJ. i can add some more combos,the first range i thought he does this was AA,QQ,77,AQ,KJ,AT, KQss,QJss,JTss,89ss,AKhh,AJhh,89hh but this is the tightest range i think he raises and calls a turn shove.

    vs this range i have 43,71% equity and with 36% pot odds i find this a +EV shove.
    This is wrong. It's good that you tried to do the math, but you are getting badly mixed up here.

    You can shove for value only if you have more than 50% equity against his calling range, end of story (considering that he never folds a better hand here). When you bet or raise, YOU are laying pot odds for HIM, not for yourself. You have to calculate your pot odds and your equity when you consider CALLING a bet, raise or shove, not when DOING the betting/raising/shoving.

    If your range is correct and you only have 43% against his calling range and he never folds a better hand, then don't shove. Consider calling because the direct pot odds on your call are 29%, you have at least 43% equity and you may have some implied odds when you draw to a boat vs his straights. Although the implied odds story is arguable because you are OOP and he is a nit.

    I also agree that your preflop range is too wide for a 9/7. What is his attempt to steal on the button (ATS)?

    I agree with a c/r on the flop (if as you say he cbets 100%). And I also agree that your turn sizing is bad, because if he just calls, you will not have the stacks set up to get as much money in as possible on the river.

    edit: note that to get back to your question in OP, I think the range you gave is probably the one he raises that turn with (pretty much as Bikes said), but I don't think he calls a shove with AQ. You were talking about keeping his range as wide as possible on the flop, but it's really on this turn after his raise that you want to do that.
    Last edited by daviddem; 03-27-2011 at 01:23 PM.
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