Flop top set, no good?

H1 - 3bet flop

H2 - Why did you 3bet TT in this spot? Make it bigger 8 - 10BB.

H3 - Turn check is good but calling the river is bad.

H4 - Usually 4bet preflop, river bet seems kind of close since though we figure to have the best hand a lot there's not many worse hands in his range that will call.

H5 - Raise flop bigger since we want to get more value. I might actually fold to his c/r since we're deep and he's repping a very strong/narrow range by c/r'ing 2 people on a super drawy flop after calling from the SB.

H6 - Bet flop.

hand 1- i dont really understand why you would call the turn bet, but fold to the river bet. the q coming out completes the straight draw you're worried about, and the 9 doesn't change anything. imo, if youre folding here, its on the turn. also, yeah, what hoopy said, 3bet the flop raise. i dont think i would be folding this even, since the raise looks more like a pair + oesd (eg, qj) than it does a pair + gut shot (eg, aj)

Originally Posted by Zorkion

hand 1- i dont really understand why you would call the turn bet, but fold to the river bet. the q coming out completes the straight draw you're worried about, and the 9 doesn't change anything. imo, if youre folding here, its on the turn. also, yeah, what hoopy said, 3bet the flop raise. i dont think i would be folding this even, since the raise looks more like a pair + oesd (eg, qj) than it does a pair + gut shot (eg, aj)

You can smell an Ace in villains hand even if you got your nose cut off. And he called hoping to complete FH or nut straight and crawl out of this mess.

heres the way i see it:

preflop range - a8+, kt+, qt+, jt+, 22+

flop range - jj (6), tt(6), aa(12), jt(9), kt(3), kj(3), kq(3), aq(12), ak(4)

turn+, I dont really see opps range changing. it would help to have reads here, but this could be a trap with an ace, just as easily as it could be a 2pair or a lower set getting scared of an ace, imho.

further, opp isnt really desperate to get all his money in, esp considering he has ep and hero is playing passive back at him. at least on river, after hero's turn flat, i would suspect an ace would bet closer to 3$$ if not more.


28/58 have us beat (any ace) and we lose 2$$ on the river
30/58, we split pot with and we win 3.98$$

ev from call is + 1.09$$
ev from fold is - 2$$


i almost wonder if it would be worthwhile to raise the river, considering

28/58 call and we lose $4, and assume we fold when he shoves over
30/58 fold and we gain $5.95

meaning our net ev for the raise is + 1.14$$

so i guess its not much of a difference. and if he is likely to call with the k-high str8, then it definitely reduces the ev of the raise.

but even if raising is questionable, im not convinced that flat calling would be a bad idea here.


anyways, please critique away

edit: i know i kinda went back on my pair+oesd theory, but oh well.