Flush draw + pair vs EP cbet & shove - do I call? ($4NL FR)

Please post this range that we have to fold flop vs since flop is never a fold, even 100bb deep.

I'm sure I'm guilty of what carrots is talking about..

really i think that we should all be posting our responses before ever reading anyone elses, and if you want to change anything after reading that should be either in a new post, referencing what changed your mind, or placed in your original post and noted as an edit.

responses should contain reasonably detailed thoughts too, or atleast point others in the direction of your thoughts.

I would probably fold this pre, but I don't think that is the necessarily the best or only acceptable choice. So my answer is as follows.

Preflop -

when making this desicion be sure to consider the opponents stack size, his tendancies regarding folding or paying off lighly post flop, as well as how likely it is that those acting behind you (button and blinds) will stay in to see the flop.

I fold because at 4NL I probably dont spend a lot of time pushing thin edges. I wait to get involved with larger stacked fish, not smaller stacked nits. This is likely not optimal though so calling in position here isnt bad, its just not what i'd do.

post flop as played I'll call the shove, but I like miffs reasoning for flatting the initial bet too, within that however I have to consider whether this player will pay me his entire stack when i make a flush, because if he won't then raising is much better. In the even that I flat the smallish flop bet and hit a flush on the turn then i could quite easily face a villain check/fold. With that in mind villains cbet frequency likely comes into play, and I feel like villain can make this cbet with 66-JJ, and that he will find it easy to check/fold them on a diamond turn which obviously dramatically reduces my implied odds.

With those post flop considerations in mind, I think the hero's raise size is questionable. Vs this player, if he's made the flop bet with 66-JJ then he's folding to pretty much any raise and a lot of the benefit of raising this type of hand comes out of the potential fold equity, and we can see villain fold that range with a raise to 60-70c. the rest of his range is going to be ahead of us by a long way. This will however effect how easy it is for us to call a shove so I'm unsure of this. Ofcourse we are ahead of that range of hands anyway so this goes against the fundamental idea of betting and is perhaps insane.. But I certainly dont feel like we can play for stacks with a middle pair here on the assupmtion that villain has a low-mid pp when we flat the flop so i'm happy to take this down here.

Obviously our equity is much greater with a smaller call that puts us all in on the flop so that is a fairly decent argument for the larger raise.

All this brings me to the conclusion that post flop options are as follows,

flat flop, fold turn to any bet that doesnt give odds for flush draw
flat flop, bet/fold pretty much any card when villain checks turn
raise flop to 60c, fold to shove (maybe need to do proper pot odds calc here)
raise flop to 60c, fold to turn shove, likely check behind if possible as fold equity is limited vs short stack
raise flop to 90c, call shove, if villain flats re-eval turn

..finally, apologies if i've left some gaping holes in my logic here as i'm sick at the moment.. and I have no idea which of these options is best..

Originally Posted by Carroters

Please post this range that we have to fold flop vs since flop is never a fold, even 100bb deep.

w/ 100bb deep we need 38% equity. vs KK/QQ/55/KQs we have 32%, so i think it's a fold.
if we add AA then we have 38% so it's 0EV, we need him to shove some AK combos to be a +EV call on flop.

even so, w/ no FE it's ok to raise flop since he is not folding better and he flats AA,AK and shoves just 2pair+?

Originally Posted by Razvan729

w/ 100bb deep we need 38% equity. vs KK/QQ/55/KQs we have 32%, so i think it's a fold.
if we add AA then we have 38% so it's 0EV, we need him to shove some AK combos to be a +EV call on flop.

even so, w/ no FE it's ok to raise flop since he is not folding better and he flats AA,AK and shoves just 2pair+?

This range is too tight. If it's even a tiny bit wider it's a call so to assume he can never have AA or AK here is going to be a mistake.

I'm happier just calling the flop though here rather than raising to get it in simply because there aren't many dominated draws or hands we have good equity vs in villain's range and we fold out no better hands, while likely still getting paid when we make our flush, trips etc. If this was BU vs CO vs some aggro reg we'd have shitloads of equity and should be willing to get this in.

Raise/folding this flop would be the worst shit ever, this deep or 100bb deep.