Everyone's math is pretty close. There are a couple important questions to ask which aren't so easily quantified. One is, the chances someone called preflop because they were suited and then continued postflop because they made the flush (not terribly hard to estimate). The second is 'how much does the flop raise indicate a flush? There is always a conditional expectation from the other players' play. The question is how ofetn does the raise mean a flush and how often does it mean a bluff or another strong hand?'