Folding big hands (25NL)

Hand 1

This guy was running at 19/6/1.8 over about 50 hands. He seemed fairly solid. I thought for a while and gave him a likely range of AKo+, AA - JJ. This puts me at about 47.5% to win. I guess there's a small chance he's got a worse hand as well. Do I need to just let this go pre-flop?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG+1 ($28.90)
Hero (MP1) ($25)
MP2 ($25.55)
MP3 ($25)
CO ($57.35)
Button ($28.90)
SB ($3.45)
BB ($6.05)
UTG ($11.95)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q, Q
2 folds, Hero bets $0.80, 2 folds, CO raises to $5, 3 folds, Hero raises to $15, CO raises to $25, Hero calls $10 (All-In)

Flop: ($50.35) 6, J, 5 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: ($50.35) 10 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($50.35) A (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $50.35 | Rake: $2.50


Hand 2

Opp was running at 20/5/2.8 over 70 hands. Given his play on the turn with a rather tame flop, it feels like I'm running into set territory. Do I make a Hero fold or stack off here?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP1 ($24.15)
Hero (MP2) ($27.55)
CO ($25)
Button ($25)
SB ($13.30)
BB ($15)
UTG ($30.45)
UTG+1 ($3.60)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A, A
2 folds, MP1 calls $0.25, Hero bets $1.25, CO calls $1.25, 4 folds

Flop: ($3.10) 3, 10, J (2 players)
Hero bets $2.30, CO calls $2.30

Turn: ($7.70) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $5, CO raises to $12, Hero ??

hand 1:
19/6 and solid?
wtf is with his 3b size
if he hasn't 3b before I think it's a fold because his bet size says "I have kings or aces"
if he has 3b before to the same size then I guess you can stick it in

hand 2: I think it's really close
but given he's a 20/5 his range is not all sets here
he could have 89, T7, JT, picked up hearts
if he somehow decided to slowplay a hand like kings he could possibly have that too

but it seems like you need to have reads for this situation, because we can felt vs. an aggressive opponent, and we can exploit passive opponents by folding here

Originally Posted by iopq

hand 1:
19/6 and solid?
wtf is with his 3b size
if he hasn't 3b before I think it's a fold because his bet size says "I have kings or aces"
if he has 3b before to the same size then I guess you can stick it in

I couldn't remember a 3-bet from him and I need to set it up in my HUD, as my HUD is still geared mainly for SNG's. I had trouble with interpreting his 3-bet size and considered JJ or AK the most likely hands. Is that a valid line of thinking to stack off here, with the assumption we have a small edge versus a weighted range?

Originally Posted by iopq

hand 2: I think it's really close
but given he's a 20/5 his range is not all sets here
he could have 89, T7, JT, picked up hearts
if he somehow decided to slowplay a hand like kings he could possibly have that too

but it seems like you need to have reads for this situation, because we can felt vs. an aggressive opponent, and we can exploit passive opponents by folding here

I'm still a cash noob. What are the best stats to look at here?

you don't look at fucking stats you watch how your opponent plays
are you one of those people that play 16 tables of FR?

H1 I fold to the 3bet. 4betting/getting it in isn't good here in my past experiences at 25NL and below. JJ and AK, while in his range, are just a lot less likely imo than you think.

H2 I fold turn.

hand 1: JJ+, AK is not the standard range here. if he hasn't 3b before then this has to be a (tough) fold. if you see him make ass backwards 3b sizes a few more times then we can be glad to be dealt QQ against him.

hand 2: standard fold, but i hate doing it every time. the seven of hearts induces like zero bluffs and sometimes it's AJ who's ready to get it in but sets (and sometimes two pairs and straights) is a much bigger part of his range. i actually just lost 130bb like an hour ago in this identical spot because it was the 3rd time in one session my KK ran into a set and i was like no way my KK can get stacked again and i called in a spot where i always fold and guess what he had.

[risk getting flamed for talking about another theorem] the baluga whale theorem generally holds that two of a kinds are seldom good when facing a raise on the turn unless it's against an aggro opponent or in an otherwise super bluffy circumstance [/risk getting flamed for talking about theorem]

1) fold. villain hates raising preflop so we can relatively safely assume he hates 3betting. also his sizing is WTF big. fold >>> call >>>>>>>> 4bet

2) probably fold yes.

Originally Posted by iopq

you don't look at fucking stats you watch how your opponent plays
are you one of those people that play 16 tables of FR?

No, but I definitely struggle to put together the betting pattern and the strength of hands on each street in my brain. I guess it comes with practice.

Originally Posted by Nakamura

Originally Posted by iopq

you don't look at fucking stats you watch how your opponent plays
are you one of those people that play 16 tables of FR?

No, but I definitely struggle to put together the betting pattern and the strength of hands on each street in my brain. I guess it comes with practice.

well it's pretty obvious
if this guy's favorite line is call, and suddenly he wakes up and raises you it's a fold

if this guy likes raising small to "see where he's at" then it's a call
if this guy likes raising because it's fun then it's a shove

Originally Posted by Nakamura

I'm still a cash noob. What are the best stats to look at here?

Originally Posted by iopq

you don't look at fucking stats you watch how your opponent plays
are you one of those people that play 16 tables of FR?

I think this is a bit out of line for the BC.

For Hand2, I would note the HUGE flat call range of a 20/5 player which includes lots of broadways, Axs and sc's. So his range is pretty wide. And the 2.8 AF is interesting. With only 70 HH's on him, those are the only stats I would place much confidence in.

If I had more like 200 HH's, I would check his AF's for the turn, specifically, and it's helpful to note the Aggression Frequency, too. I would be worried if the Flop AF was 3.5 and the Turn AF was 1.9 or something. A lot players at 25nl are VERY agro on the flop but won't fire a turn without some kind of value. Same for Aggression Frequency numbers - I wouldn't like seeing 50% on the flop and 22% on the turn.

Finally, you can take a look at W$SD. Players like this who are passive preflop and reasonably agro postflop should have a W$SD > 50 if they're at all aware. I would want to continue against someone with a 45ish W$SD. Again, this stat is pretty useless at 70 HH's since it will be dominated by two or three made hands or a cooler or two.

Like IOPQ said initially, it's close. Given what we know based on preflop stats and AF, I would call and reevaluate. If you see a showdown, make a note about whether he's playing turns this way with (a) sets, (b) draws, or (c) combo hand semi-bluffs. Knowing how he plays this turn on this board is worth a ton of HH's and HUD stats.

Hand 1: So he's stacking off preflop 50% as often as he makes a preflop raise? Yeah that makes sense.

Hand 2: Looks like a fold.

Originally Posted by Robb

Originally Posted by Nakamura

I'm still a cash noob. What are the best stats to look at here?

Originally Posted by iopq

you don't look at fucking stats you watch how your opponent plays
are you one of those people that play 16 tables of FR?

I think this is a bit out of line for the BC.

I thought the point of this forum was to help beginners get better at poker? This isn't out of line at all.

Robb what are we re-evaluating? Kinda sounds like we're folding all river bets and how often do you think he's going to check it to you?

I would probably fold if he shoved all-in on a river heart, an 8 or a 9 and call otherwise.

Here's my evaluation based on what we know. This villain has HORRIBLE preflop tendencies and is pretty agro postflop. His poker decision-making is NOT solid.

Next, there's tons of draws in his flop range that he could get frisky with. He could take this line on the turn with AJs, AQs, J9s, KJs, T9s certainly, and some of those combos not suited. I guess I don't quite buy this line as "the nuts" from him because of his feeshy stats.

That said, it does worry me that Dozer and Spoon say fold, so I'm rethinking my analysis and trying to learn something here myself. But that was my thinking when I looked initially. I've learned a lot from those two over the years here, so maybe take their advice over mine if it makes more sense to you.

Well, FWIW the villain in hand 1 predictably pitched up AA and the villain in hand two showed up with TT. While I'm obviously unhappy I got stacked twice in about 10 minutes, at least I'm happy I know what I'm looking for and what I should consider before stacking off with big hands.

Being relatively new to cash, I appreciate the time and effort you guys are putting in to help.

might i offer a friendly suggestion to start at 10NL to get a little familiar with the game? as someone who dabbles in SnG's i can say that the difference between that and cash games is like as different as changing from NLHE to PLO. i know i had to start out at $2 SnG's and am still only at $5 ones which is below my bankroll.

don't be a hero. take on the roll of the student for a bit

Originally Posted by surviva316

might i offer a friendly suggestion to start at 10NL to get a little familiar with the game? as someone who dabbles in SnG's i can say that the difference between that and cash games is like as different as changing from NLHE to PLO. i know i had to start out at $2 SnG's and am still only at $5 ones which is below my bankroll.

don't be a hero. take on the roll of the student for a bit

I totally get what you're saying, although I'm good enough (or bad enough) to run at break-even over about 5k of hands at the 25NL. I might try dropping down for a bit and getting some more experience before I tackle 25NL again.

i would have probably reraised him there and if he shoved over me i would have folded

Originally Posted by chopsuey169

i would have probably reraised him there and if he shoved over me i would have folded

even if we just min-raise, a shove over would be 2.35 into 46.65 lol