Folding Queens after turn with possible straights and sets?

Originally Posted by Penneywize

Yeah I think the problem here is that the ranges we can ascribe to MP1 depend a great deal on reads. Specifically we want a general idea of what type of hands this player is flatting a preflop raise with in middle position. A loose / spewy 5NL type running 30/10 or so would be calling here with a great deal of AXs for example. Absent reads and assuming a fairly tight opponent, small pairs make up a huge chunk of their range which obviously hits this board very hard.

As played, I think this is a fold; I just don't see the min-raise flop, bet pot turn line being a bluff all that often in a spot like this at 5NL, even if the board is quite drawy. It's a bit close, though, because our villain's probably assuming a hand like 88 (or, say A7 if we had an opponent as described above) is the nuts and is betting for value.

As newfish alluded to, if we had a specific read on the opponent that led us to believe that they overplay draws quite a bit then I would be more willing to simply get it in here.

you guys dont think a random 5nl'er is doing this with 88-jj....between that and all the draws he has make this an easy call i feel like...


anyway that being said, it is not a possible set because the second 4 is out there, that is a possible trips... a set is when you have a pcoket pair and hit your card giving you 3 of a kind.

Originally Posted by philly and the phanatics

anyway that being said, it is not a possible set because the second 4 is out there, that is a possible trips... a set is when you have a pcoket pair and hit your card giving you 3 of a kind.

I always thought that people only used the word set this way, but that generally speaking, a 'set' was just a 3 of a kind. Compare to if you were playing 5-card draw and you showed down 555KQ. I don't think you'd be incorrect if you were to announce you had a 'set'.

Correct if I'm wrong?

Originally Posted by philly and the phanatics

you guys dont think a random 5nl'er is doing this with 88-jj....between that and all the draws he has make this an easy call i feel like...


anyway that being said, it is not a possible set because the second 4 is out there, that is a possible trips... a set is when you have a pcoket pair and hit your card giving you 3 of a kind.

Well we should know if it's just a random 5nler or not, and 77/66 is a set on the flop here, and I don't think its really a big deal calling it a set when it would be a boat on the turn

Originally Posted by Imthenewfish

Well we should know if it's just a random 5nler or not, and 77/66 is a set on the flop here, and I don't think its really a big deal calling it a set when it would be a boat on the turn

Agreed, if anyone mentioned a set in regards to this villain's hand, I would assume they meant the flop with 77/66/44.

i think he is doing this with 88-jj all day,

say villains range is a4s, a7s, 44,66+ (i know you would think he would 3b qq+,ak...but some noobs dont and being that the op didnt give us any stats and juding by his chip stack i am going to assume he is 5nl fish) 76s, 45s, i really dont see anyone doing this with 58s or 35s but i guess we can throw in half the combos for each, and to balance that out we will throw in a Ak, AQ of hearts.

that is

A4s (2)
A7s ( 3)
44 (1)
66 (3)
77 (3)
88 (6)
99 (6)
TT (6)
JJ (6)
QQ (1)
kk (6)
AA (6)
76s (2)
45s (2)
58s/35s (4)
AKhh/ AQhh (2)


for a total of 59 combos

of those combos we are beating a7s, 88-jj, and the 2 flush draws= 29 combos
we tie the 1 combo of qq
and we are drawing to a 2 outter vs 29 combos in his range.


if we can add more flush draws, 89s, a7o to his range then this is hugely ev +, as you can see we have about 50% equity vs his range so the pot odds still dictate a call

Originally Posted by philly and the phanatics

i think he is doing this with 88-jj all day,

(...)

A4s (2)
A7s ( 3)
44 (1)
66 (3)
77 (3)
88 (6)
99 (6)
TT (6)
JJ (6)
QQ (1)
kk (6)
AA (6)
76s (2)
45s (2)
58s/35s (4)
AKhh/ AQhh (2)


for a total of 59 combos

of those combos we are beating a7s, 88-jj, and the 2 flush draws= 29 combos
we tie the 1 combo of qq
and we are drawing to a 2 outter vs 29 combos in his range.


if we can add more flush draws, 89s, a7o to his range then this is hugely ev +, as you can see we have about 50% equity vs his range so the pot odds still dictate a call

Nice write up philly.

I underlined a few combinations I either don't think are likely or think that we would need reads on villain to reliably put them in their range. For instance I don't think too many 5NL types are just going to flat AA, KK, QQ, nor 53s or 85s. The Axs are probably more likely but again, knowing if villain was a 30/10 rather than a 15/11 would make a huge difference in our assumptions here.

Perhaps try running the numbers while having the 88-JJ combos reduced to 3 each and cut out the AQs set of combos. I think this might leave us about 40% or more, in which case the call is still good, but I still can't shake my feeling that villain's range is even stronger than that.