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 Originally Posted by Penneywize
Yeah I think the problem here is that the ranges we can ascribe to MP1 depend a great deal on reads. Specifically we want a general idea of what type of hands this player is flatting a preflop raise with in middle position. A loose / spewy 5NL type running 30/10 or so would be calling here with a great deal of AXs for example. Absent reads and assuming a fairly tight opponent, small pairs make up a huge chunk of their range which obviously hits this board very hard.
As played, I think this is a fold; I just don't see the min-raise flop, bet pot turn line being a bluff all that often in a spot like this at 5NL, even if the board is quite drawy. It's a bit close, though, because our villain's probably assuming a hand like 88 (or, say A7 if we had an opponent as described above) is the nuts and is betting for value.
As newfish alluded to, if we had a specific read on the opponent that led us to believe that they overplay draws quite a bit then I would be more willing to simply get it in here.
you guys dont think a random 5nl'er is doing this with 88-jj....between that and all the draws he has make this an easy call i feel like...
anyway that being said, it is not a possible set because the second 4 is out there, that is a possible trips... a set is when you have a pcoket pair and hit your card giving you 3 of a kind.
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