Folding Queens after turn with possible straights and sets?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (8 handed) -

saw flop

Hero (UTG) ($6.57)
UTG+1 ($7.09)
MP1 ($3.60)
MP2 ($3.80)
CO ($12.34)
Button ($5.33)
SB ($12.50)
BB ($4.09)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Qc, Qd
Hero bets $0.15, 1 fold, MP1 calls $0.15, 5 folds

Flop: ($0.37) 7c, 6h, 4h (2 players)
Hero bets $0.20, MP1 raises to $0.40, Hero calls $0.20

Turn: ($1.17) 4s
(2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets $1.10, Hero ???

What should I do?

First -- do you have any reads on the player? Is he tight, loose, weak, aggressive, etc.?

As for the hand:

On the turn, he's probably either semi-bluffing a strong draw or value-betting with a strong made hand. The size of the bet seems more like a value bet, so he might have a full house, or he's just expecting to be able to successfully shove-bluff a ton of river cards so he wants as much of your money in now while leaving a believable shove for the river.

I would fold the turn without any reads. At 5NL he's probably not bluffing and your hand suffers from very bad reverse implied odds.

Please read the stickies, in particular: http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ds-162741.html

I understand what I did wrong... Must not post the result

excuses...

It might be spewy, but I'd get get it in against someone with with fishy stats whos overplaying a draw a lot and fold to a reg, it's not that hard to get that much information without playing many hands with them..

Originally Posted by NightGizmo

First -- do you have any reads on the player? Is he tight, loose, weak, aggressive, etc.?

As for the hand:

On the turn, he's probably either semi-bluffing a strong draw or value-betting with a strong made hand. The size of the bet seems more like a value bet, so he might have a full house, or he's just expecting to be able to successfully shove-bluff a ton of river cards so he wants as much of your money in now while leaving a believable shove for the river.

I would fold the turn without any reads. At 5NL he's probably not bluffing and your hand suffers from very bad reverse implied odds.

Yeah I think the problem here is that the ranges we can ascribe to MP1 depend a great deal on reads. Specifically we want a general idea of what type of hands this player is flatting a preflop raise with in middle position. A loose / spewy 5NL type running 30/10 or so would be calling here with a great deal of AXs for example. Absent reads and assuming a fairly tight opponent, small pairs make up a huge chunk of their range which obviously hits this board very hard.

As played, I think this is a fold; I just don't see the min-raise flop, bet pot turn line being a bluff all that often in a spot like this at 5NL, even if the board is quite drawy. It's a bit close, though, because our villain's probably assuming a hand like 88 (or, say A7 if we had an opponent as described above) is the nuts and is betting for value.

As newfish alluded to, if we had a specific read on the opponent that led us to believe that they overplay draws quite a bit then I would be more willing to simply get it in here.

Originally Posted by Penneywize

Yeah I think the problem here is that the ranges we can ascribe to MP1 depend a great deal on reads. Specifically we want a general idea of what type of hands this player is flatting a preflop raise with in middle position. A loose / spewy 5NL type running 30/10 or so would be calling here with a great deal of AXs for example. Absent reads and assuming a fairly tight opponent, small pairs make up a huge chunk of their range which obviously hits this board very hard.

As played, I think this is a fold; I just don't see the min-raise flop, bet pot turn line being a bluff all that often in a spot like this at 5NL, even if the board is quite drawy. It's a bit close, though, because our villain's probably assuming a hand like 88 (or, say A7 if we had an opponent as described above) is the nuts and is betting for value.

As newfish alluded to, if we had a specific read on the opponent that led us to believe that they overplay draws quite a bit then I would be more willing to simply get it in here.

you guys dont think a random 5nl'er is doing this with 88-jj....between that and all the draws he has make this an easy call i feel like...


anyway that being said, it is not a possible set because the second 4 is out there, that is a possible trips... a set is when you have a pcoket pair and hit your card giving you 3 of a kind.

Originally Posted by philly and the phanatics

anyway that being said, it is not a possible set because the second 4 is out there, that is a possible trips... a set is when you have a pcoket pair and hit your card giving you 3 of a kind.

I always thought that people only used the word set this way, but that generally speaking, a 'set' was just a 3 of a kind. Compare to if you were playing 5-card draw and you showed down 555KQ. I don't think you'd be incorrect if you were to announce you had a 'set'.

Correct if I'm wrong?

Originally Posted by philly and the phanatics

you guys dont think a random 5nl'er is doing this with 88-jj....between that and all the draws he has make this an easy call i feel like...


anyway that being said, it is not a possible set because the second 4 is out there, that is a possible trips... a set is when you have a pcoket pair and hit your card giving you 3 of a kind.

Well we should know if it's just a random 5nler or not, and 77/66 is a set on the flop here, and I don't think its really a big deal calling it a set when it would be a boat on the turn

Originally Posted by Imthenewfish

Well we should know if it's just a random 5nler or not, and 77/66 is a set on the flop here, and I don't think its really a big deal calling it a set when it would be a boat on the turn

Agreed, if anyone mentioned a set in regards to this villain's hand, I would assume they meant the flop with 77/66/44.

Your pot odds are about 30%. Without any information on the villain your odds on drawing another queen are about 4.5%, so fold.

Originally Posted by Tasha

Your pot odds are about 30%. Without any information on the villain your odds on drawing another queen are about 4.5%, so fold.

What range do you put the villain on and what's our equity against it? Why do you just assume that we're behind here?

Originally Posted by Tasha

Your pot odds are about 30%. Without any information on the villain your odds on drawing another queen are about 4.5%, so fold.

I was gonna stove this but I guess you beat me to the punch

Did I miss something here? what was the consensus on villains range and our equity?

i think he is doing this with 88-jj all day,

say villains range is a4s, a7s, 44,66+ (i know you would think he would 3b qq+,ak...but some noobs dont and being that the op didnt give us any stats and juding by his chip stack i am going to assume he is 5nl fish) 76s, 45s, i really dont see anyone doing this with 58s or 35s but i guess we can throw in half the combos for each, and to balance that out we will throw in a Ak, AQ of hearts.

that is

A4s (2)
A7s ( 3)
44 (1)
66 (3)
77 (3)
88 (6)
99 (6)
TT (6)
JJ (6)
QQ (1)
kk (6)
AA (6)
76s (2)
45s (2)
58s/35s (4)
AKhh/ AQhh (2)


for a total of 59 combos

of those combos we are beating a7s, 88-jj, and the 2 flush draws= 29 combos
we tie the 1 combo of qq
and we are drawing to a 2 outter vs 29 combos in his range.


if we can add more flush draws, 89s, a7o to his range then this is hugely ev +, as you can see we have about 50% equity vs his range so the pot odds still dictate a call

in 5NL (I play there too) typically in this spot if he is a super tight reg I will fold turn but I woulda bet 0.30 on flop, reraise his min-raise and move all-in/fold depending on the opponent, there are so many bad players that overall this is a +++EV play but of course it deppends so much on the opponent !, sometimes it will be a clear fold.

I was being sarcastic, sorry no offense intended just felt the pot odds v. '% of hitting two outs' calculation was unnecessary; if we're significantly behind villain's range we aren't going to be leaning towards a call on the basis of two outs ever.

If someone wants to we can stove up a range including sets and overpairs thru to TT or JJ and maybe a flushdraw for good measure and see where we're at but I doubt we're ahead given villain's line. We'd naturally have to weigh-down the less-likely hands in villain's range (you can do this in pokerstove by un-selecting some combinations when you select the preflop hands).

By the way I don't mean to sound like this is completely cut and dried. If anyone thinks I'm way off on this please say so, I'm far from a be-all end-all authority on the topic, being a microstakes nub myself.

Originally Posted by philly and the phanatics

i think he is doing this with 88-jj all day,

(...)

A4s (2)
A7s ( 3)
44 (1)
66 (3)
77 (3)
88 (6)
99 (6)
TT (6)
JJ (6)
QQ (1)
kk (6)
AA (6)
76s (2)
45s (2)
58s/35s (4)
AKhh/ AQhh (2)


for a total of 59 combos

of those combos we are beating a7s, 88-jj, and the 2 flush draws= 29 combos
we tie the 1 combo of qq
and we are drawing to a 2 outter vs 29 combos in his range.


if we can add more flush draws, 89s, a7o to his range then this is hugely ev +, as you can see we have about 50% equity vs his range so the pot odds still dictate a call

Nice write up philly.

I underlined a few combinations I either don't think are likely or think that we would need reads on villain to reliably put them in their range. For instance I don't think too many 5NL types are just going to flat AA, KK, QQ, nor 53s or 85s. The Axs are probably more likely but again, knowing if villain was a 30/10 rather than a 15/11 would make a huge difference in our assumptions here.

Perhaps try running the numbers while having the 88-JJ combos reduced to 3 each and cut out the AQs set of combos. I think this might leave us about 40% or more, in which case the call is still good, but I still can't shake my feeling that villain's range is even stronger than that.

since like everyone has a pretty set image for villain in their head and can't really agree on what it should be, I'd just like to say that we're trying to put a range on a microstakes unkown that we have no reads or stats on, and we'll NEVER come up with an accurate range unless we know something more about him. Usually it's a fold in situations like these because most of our reasoning for calling is because we're curious by nature, and human tedency is to call too much

Originally Posted by Imthenewfish

since like everyone has a pretty set image for villain in their head and can't really agree on what it should be, I'd just like to say that we're trying to put a range on a microstakes unkown that we have no reads or stats on, and we'll NEVER come up with an accurate range unless we know something more about him. Usually it's a fold in situations like these because most of our reasoning for calling is because we're curious by nature, and human tedency is to call too much

bing blang blaow

/agree