A graph to help beginners grasp shortrun vs. longrun

Anyone else who has a good example like this please post here too. This is a graph of my full ring 10nl experience this time around. To start off with is an almost 15k hand chunk of break-even followed by a 15k hand chunk of 5BB/100. If you are down do not get discouraged. If you play good things will turn around eventually. Also, when you are on a heater do not think it is because you are a poker god. You aren't. You are just getting paid a lot or not getting outdrawn or drawing out a lot yourself. Hopefully this thread can help beginners grasp this.

wow 35k hands at 10nl FullRing.

Maybe a graph about perseverance, or a lesson in how to not kill yourself.?

That's so sick, 14k hands of break even poker at 10nl FR. I don't think I could survive that dude. I played against you once or twice when I was making vids on FT. Didn't really notice too much.

This is pretty much just like what my 10nl, 25nl, and 50nl experiences were like while rebuilding a BR.

what are the steps in getting that graph onto a post? and how do you convert BB's into $ on the y-axis?

To go from BB's to $'s go to Options > Y-Axis > Display By Dollar. Then right-click the graph and save. Then host the image somewhere like imageshack.us. Once you upload it to their server copy the direct URL and put it inside [IMG][/IMG] tags in your post.

this is from July 1st, 2007 through Sept 30th, 2007. i had the worst August ever. down 12 BI's in 3 weeks. you can see i was a bit "stack happy" in the first half of the graph, but got back on track. took me a month to repair the damage, but took me at least two to get off "life tilt."

but, if you play fundamentally sound, you will come back. try not to get too discouraged. btw, good idea for a thread, martin.

Dear FTR: Please resize your images when possible.

Thank you
Management

FWIW, im at 25k hands of 50NL so far this month, and I've made $40.

Fuck

-$10.

Originally Posted by euphoricism

Dear FTR: Please resize your images when possible.

Thank you
Management

They look fine on my 22" wide screen Acer

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

Then host the image somewhere like imageshack.us. Once you upload it to their server copy the direct URL and put it inside [IMG][/IMG] tags in your post.

They actually have link you can just copy for Forums with the {img} tags already on it. Look alittle farther down.

Originally Posted by Chopper

btw, good idea for a thread, martin.

thanks pal. glad to see you got off your "life tilt"

I'll post mine when I reach 20K hands

*edit: LOL, I'm almost at 20K hands. Here goes




In BB



Conclusion: don't play with 20 buyins for any given level. its not enough

Originally Posted by euphoricism

FWIW, im at 25k hands of 50NL so far this month, and I've made $40.

Fuck

-$10.

i must see such a stellar graph

ShortTerm
[img=http://img225.imageshack.us/img225/1226/copyofcopyofarena0306givs3.th.jpg]

Long term
[img=http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/5868/copyofcopyofarena0306giql4.th.jpg]

Originally Posted by Miffed22001

ShortTerm
[img=http://img225.imageshack.us/img225/1226/copyofcopyofarena0306givs3.th.jpg]

Long term
[img=http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/5868/copyofcopyofarena0306giql4.th.jpg]

winner

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

Originally Posted by Miffed22001

ShortTerm
[img=http://img225.imageshack.us/img225/1226/copyofcopyofarena0306givs3.th.jpg]

Long term
[img=http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/5868/copyofcopyofarena0306giql4.th.jpg]

winner

i need to post that 100nl short term graph after 15k hands me thinks

jack, is that your time of owning $10, mega-tilt at $25 and the rebuild? nice graph?!?

yup

sharp drop #1 is megatilt @ 25NL
sharp drop #2 is bad luck @ 25NL

hence I'm waiting until I have like 40 BI for 25NL to try again


bad luck compounds tilt which compounds bad luck, vicious fucking circle. it can obliterate all you worked 15K hands for in 15 hands

Really good idea to start this, indeed.

... only somehow looking at this [censored] before and after 14k mark I get the feeling that OP missed the point a little.
Looking at the graph as a big picture it seems to me that it actually took you 14k hands to figure out what good solid ABC really is (as a bare minimum to beat those 'tards') - which is also helpful for beginners, knowing they're not the only ones going through tough periods and that there's the 'light at the end of the tunnel'.

Originally Posted by Sheetah

Looking at the graph as a big picture it seems to me that it actually took you 14k hands to figure out what good solid ABC really is

I'm not a beginner Sheetah. I am rebuilding a bankroll. It seems like you may be missing the point cuz the point is I was playing the same throughout and got vastly different results during large chunks of hands.

Not sure this is the point of the thread, but here's proof that it can take awhile to get the hang of poker. I started my career with a 40k hand breakeven stretch at 25-100nl. And big downswings are possible for winning players (see hands 125k->133k). And there's money to be made in this game All good lessons for noobs.

zook

life graph yah?

god i wish i had all my DBs these days

Originally Posted by Miffed22001

life graph yah?

yah

but any newer poster should look at zookies two HUGE downswings. or at least, i bet they felt like it at the time.

hey new guy, what would you feel like if your $500, that you spent all year grinding up on the 10NL tables, took a nose dive down to $250...in a month? would you start to question yourself? or realize it could just be a swing? this is where the introspection should come in...you should question yourself...W/O PANICKING.

zook, you lost half your roll twice. but, if we look at the graph...it was variance, or it got corrected relatively quickly.

now, those just look like bumps in the road.

nice graph, Z

Originally Posted by zook

Originally Posted by Miffed22001

life graph yah?

yah

over a 3rd of your graph ive lost 4k. fuck variance.

me posty graph yes?

btw, is it possible to combine PT databases into 1 master one?

fwiw also on my db which i am -2k on over 50k hands im running -1.3bbs/100. however on the most significant sample over 30k hands (others are broken down into smaller groups of 4k) my winrate is 2.5bbs/100 while all the others are negative over thoise small samples (hence why my ev graph is so bent!
Havent had a winning month since july now which is pretty gay also(subtracting rb of course)

double post but w/e

This is probably the best example of short term luck (17k is short term but seems like a lifetime to new players)

EV graph
[img=http://img220.imageshack.us/img220/555/copyofcopyofarena0306giix8.th.jpg]

winnings graph (lol)
[img=http://img150.imageshack.us/img150/6458/copyofcopyofarena0306gibh8.th.jpg]

Originally Posted by Trainer_jyms

Originally Posted by euphoricism

Dear FTR: Please resize your images when possible.

Thank you
Management

They look fine on my 22" wide screen Acer

Its not so much the size of the picture as the size of the files. Adds up pretty quick.

Originally Posted by euphoricism

Originally Posted by Trainer_jyms

Originally Posted by euphoricism

Dear FTR: Please resize your images when possible.

Thank you
Management

They look fine on my 22" wide screen Acer

Its not so much the size of the picture as the size of the files. Adds up pretty quick.

mine weighs in at a trim 15kb

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

Originally Posted by Sheetah

Looking at the graph as a big picture it seems to me that it actually took you 14k hands to figure out what good solid ABC really is

I'm not a beginner Sheetah. I am rebuilding a bankroll. It seems like you may be missing the point cuz the point is I was playing the same throughout and got vastly different results during large chunks of hands.

Sorry, didn't want to be mean or something. I know you're not n00b and that you used to play NL100. Somehow I got the idea that "this time arround" was "last year" or "2 yrs ago" or so.

And wow, 14k hands of break even at NL10? Either the variance pawned you or games really got tougher - not to the point of being not beatable (obv) but more aggressive in nature a.k.a. swing-ier (and probably both).

Awesome thread, i'm up $27 after 6500 hands at PARTY!!!"1111! 50NL

In my last 21k hands, I have a few 5k stretches where I broke even. Strangely enough, I hardly noticed them. I think I could probably shrug off a 10k dry spell, but I don't know how I would react to 25k+ hands of break-even or losing play.

We say we're not supposed to be results oriented, but that usually pertains to short term situations (such as a single hand). At what point is it appropriate stop blaming variance, and hold yourself accountable for your results? 40k hands? 100k hands? Some ungodly number of hands that none of us will ever play?

Based on a few crazy graphs I've seen, I think the short-term might be too long.

i posted my 40k losing streak. I ran bad, played bad then just went off the rails
Its when it starts to look like a winrate over a large period that you get worried.

from what i hear, you are not supposed to be at any level long enough to get a "realistic" winrate. so, we use small samples like 10k and 20k. some of us can show 100k+, but those usually contain multiple levels.

i hear that 100k is starting to approach a "realistic" winrate, but i think someone previously mentioned that even proven winners can run bad over 100k. but, i have yet to hear anyone admit to it.

a lot of the ballers especially lhe players admit to 40k break even streaks, ive seen a lhe 1000bbs downswing (wtf?)

At microstakes sure you shouldnt play more than 25k or so hands before moving up because you should be killing it (not so much though i freely admit thesedays)
But below 100nl you shouldnt know your winrate, only reall yat 200nl do you have to grind about 30k+ hands to make the next natural br jump to 2/4nl

Thanks, I'm a noob w/ 20k hands at $.10/.25. I was killing $.05/.10, and I'm doing okay up a level. Up $200 over last few weeks. I lost a bunch a few months ago, though, and I'm not positive for my career, yet. These graphs and discussions are helping. Don't go on tilt when you run bad. Don't get to thinking you're Doyle win you win 25 BB/100 for a few hundred hands. Thanks, guys. Good thread.

Originally Posted by Sheetah

Sorry, didn't want to be mean or something. I know you're not n00b and that you used to play NL100. Somehow I got the idea that "this time arround" was "last year" or "2 yrs ago" or so.

And wow, 14k hands of break even at NL10? Either the variance pawned you or games really got tougher - not to the point of being not beatable (obv) but more aggressive in nature a.k.a. swing-ier (and probably both).

no worries sheetah. ya, i haven't been gone long enough to have to re-learn everything. and yes, it was just variance. i mean, i was losing money overall on my sets (including losing overall in my set vs. overpair encounters), all pairs except for AA & JJ were losers, i had KK vs. AA 6 times, and i was losing overall in my AA vs. KK encounters which happened only 3 times. pretty disgusting.

Sick! 14k hands!? Sick!
I've been on 2 or 3k stretches like the above occasionally, but given how little time I can dedicate to poker (I HAVE LIFE YO) 14k is almost a month for me.
Good thing you didn't lost your mind but kept playing - which makes this victory even sweeter

Yo, after 10,500 hands at PARTY 50NL, i'm down 1$.

Fuck poker.

Originally Posted by ChrisTheFish

Yo, after 10,500 hands at PARTY 50NL, i'm down 1$.

Fuck poker.

hey martin, how did you get that graph? I cant figure it out for the life of me

i've got poker tracker, which tabs/settings do you use?

thanks for any help...

poker grapher

kevin, you use a separate graphing program. you can get it here:
http://overcards.com/wiki/moin.cgi/PokerGrapher

This is a little revisionist, as it takes a chunk out of the middle of my graph, but here's 62k hands of breakeven poker (62k hands is pretty much 6 months for me, if that puts it in perspective):

LOL wtf that is sick!

Originally Posted by Trainer_jyms

Originally Posted by euphoricism

Dear FTR: Please resize your images when possible.

Thank you
Management

They look fine on my 22" wide screen Acer

LOLACERAMENTS

Originally Posted by biondino

This is a little revisionist, as it takes a chunk out of the middle of my graph, but here's 62k hands of breakeven poker (62k hands is pretty much 6 months for me, if that puts it in perspective):

this looks horribly like a winrate and not a 'running bad/breakeven graph'

do we think we're beating the games? Im also guessing its crypto...ugh gg decent games

This thread should have waited until the end of december, I bet there'd be some sweet yearly graphs. I'll post my 350k hands or so later, HM is busy importing a few million observed hands.

Zook, can you post a graph in BBs as well ktx.

Oh and the pics look fine on my 30" HP

I'll post this to help stop anyone from playing Drunk.

wow happy that makes me cry

Originally Posted by mrhappy333

I'll post this to help stop anyone from playing Drunk.

Judging by that graph, it should only take you 272 years to get back to even.

On average, how many tables, at what Max and how many hours does it take you guys to complete 1K hands at cash games?

4-tabling 6max = 3 hours

I 8 table full ring and it takes 2 hours.

Thanks, now I know what to shoot for on either end.

Here's pretty much all my 6-max hands, since late december 06. I wish I had my FR databases from 2006 and my SnG spreadsheet from before that, and even then it wouldn't be even close to what I'd call the long run.

Graph in dollars (look euph, thumbnails):


Graph in BBs:


The BB graph is much prettier than the $ graph, because I haven't been very successful in moving up past 400NL. There are a few 50k hands break even stretches, a 75k one, and a few 20-ish BI downswings. Some of it bad play, some variance. Still good to see that the longterm trend is onwards and upwards.

nice halv those are great for this thread

Originally Posted by HalvSame

Zook, can you post a graph in BBs as well ktx.

Never graph it this way. It does look nicer.

pretty nice

pretty nice

and btw, im down like 10 buyins @ 67k hands

OK, so I think I'm back on track here.
since my last graph, I self Banned my self for 2 months to Take a break from playing, read most of the stickies here, watch some videos, and do lots of exersize. These are the results, only 10,000 hands. but it has a nice steady climb to it

These hands here I'm actually watching all my opponents/ taking notes/ taking more notes and paying close attention to everything.

holy crap chris that is oogly!

It's sick, one of the strong points of my game is my ability to keep calm and avoid tilt, and i have done so successfully. I was break even after like 30k hands of 100NL and now 10k hands later, i'm down 12 buyins. Im gonna post lots of hands while nursing my now $2500 roll @ 50NL for a while.

here's a new one (yes i am still at $10nl cuz i want 40 buyins for $25nl, and i didn't play much in jan. or feb.). this is 6max. i'm still going strong and tilt free

How do you generate these graphs? Is there a place within PT, or is there a separate app that works with your PT data?

Originally Posted by deacon_bluez

How do you generate these graphs? Is there a place within PT, or is there a separate app that works with your PT data?

For PT2 use pokergrapher, PT3 has grapher integrated

bump for 500k hands graph.

ps: fuck you, red line.

Cocobills thread has the greatest example of this I think. Early on theres a "huge" downswing that looks ghastly, then you look at the graph on the last page and that huge dip is now a minor blip.

ya you're right bj

Originally Posted by bjsaust

Cocobills thread has the greatest example of this I think. Early on theres a "huge" downswing that looks ghastly, then you look at the graph on the last page and that huge dip is now a minor blip.

Link? Is it in the blogs and ops forum?

http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...34864-140.html
go there and scroll to the bottom. there's a 241k hand graph.

thx!

Thats the one.

Theres about an $8k downswing near the start thats barely noticable now, but would have been nearly 25% of his winnings at the time gone a few thousand hands.

Theres also about a $12k downswing over 10k hands between around 155k and 165k, which equates to a break even stretch of around 30k hands from 155k to 185k which if you took that out of the overall graph would look terrible, but taken over the whole it looks minor.