I still kinda disagree here, though don't have any math to back me up. I am working under the assumption that our opp is most likely thinking that any K is the nuts. He is playing to maximize value on it and therefore going for c/c c/c c/r, and he is doing this with all K's.

I don't think QT is folding the turn after calling the flop. The flop bet was a slight overbet, whereas the turn was less than pot. This doesn't mean much to us, but could be seen as weakness by opp.

The other hand that makes sense that he could have here is Jx, with x most likely being T/Q/A. He is running a bit of a bluff catcher line, which is not all that smart in a multiway limped pot, but that's ok. This is his least likely holding IMO.

The J will call a small bet, but not a shove, and will not shove over. I think all K's are shoving over, whether we beat them or not. QT is probably a mix of shoving over, leading, and check-calling.

Since we have bet both streets so far when checked to, opp has no reason to think that we will not bet this street as well. I have seen numerous players check all three streets when they have what they think is the nuts, especially at the lower levels. Since opp is unknown we can't really narrow his range down much more than a couple of scared J's, an unlikely QT, and Kx (and possibly some other random weird ass hand that noone here has even thought of being in this spot like 22).

There aren't a lot of K2's being limped from EP, but if they are, then they are probably suited. I think the same goes for 3-5/6. This leaves K7, and possibly K6 as the only Kx possibilities that have more than 1 way to be made that we are ahead of. K7 and up can be limped suited or not. 13 combos (in a best case scenario) of Kx we beat. 17 combos of Kx we lose to, and 2 that we tie. I think x being higher than 7 is more likely as well simply because K9 is more likely to be limped than K7-.

In this situation, with the 9 coming on the river, there are more hands that are beating us in opps range than we are beating. The hands that are beating us are also more likely to be in, and I think any K can take this line.

Since we have no real reads on opp (and I am making the assumption based on this that he is not a complete and utter moron, since these guys tend to stand out pretty quick) I think the best play is to check-behind the river. If the river card had been a high card or a 2/3, I would probably go for the third street of value. as it is, I would be happy with two streets.

how is my reasoning?