Help me figure this stat out please.

Can someone help me figure out that lets say I have a pocket pair (3,3) and I make a large bet and everyone folds except for one person who calls. Assuming that he does not have a pocket pair, what are the odds that he will pair one of his cards on the flop. Thank you for any help. Stiener

2 * (3C1)(47C2) / (50C3) = 33%

If you have 33 preflop and are called by 1 person, he will almost always have overs (the only way he wouldn't is if he held onto 22 or 33)

In tournaments this is called a race and it happens often in the later stages. 1 person will go all-in with a pocket pair. Another will call with 2 overs. It's approx a 50/50 for either hand to win... When you take it to the river. The pair is usually a sligh favorite. But it depends on the hands.

In a ring game you will rarely see this type of hand go all in pre-flop. So you have to play every street individually. I still play my streets on a 50/50 basis. Either he hit a pair or not. You just have to look at betting, player style and opportunity to determine. But 33 isn't too strong unless you trip it.

thank you both.

what accounts for the difference between 33% chance of pairing and the 45% chance that overcards beat a pp?

Is it just the (higher) straights possible with the overs?

My copy of ToP is being shippied to me as we speak, so forgive my ignorance of this basic data...

Originally Posted by LeFou

what accounts for the difference between 33% chance of pairing and the 45% chance that overcards beat a pp?

Is it just the (higher) straights possible with the overs?

My copy of ToP is being shippied to me as we speak, so forgive my ignorance of this basic data...

45% is for when you take it all the way to the river

oh. that.

(buries head in sand)