How does a fish think?

I was in Ventrillo last night with soupie, shane, phlegm, okie, and a bunch of other tournament and ring game GODS, and 6 of us (Obertray, Corey, Phlegm [who won], DavSimon [who took 2nd], Me [3rd], and Scgolfer [took 8th hehe]) got into a $20 sng to have some fun.

Basically, one fish who wasnt a FTR member was at 560 with the blinds 100/200 and 4 left, he was on the button and he raised to 400. On Ventrillo we questioned his play, somebody asked why he wouldnt just raise all in, instead of leaving himself 167 chips left. Somebody else replied that he is maybe just looking for a call, and I said "no, he's a fish, if he was looking for a call he would have min-raised, believe me, I used to be a fish, and compared to you guys I still am". Soupie then piped up with "Syked, you need to write a post on how a fish thinks right now, while its fresh in your head." And thus began this post.


Let's start from the beginning. I am far from a great player, even saying I'm "good" is stretching it a little. My bankroll has been as high as $450 and as low as $50 (where I started) and I have reasonable experience in $5.50, $11, and a little experience in $22 sng's on stars. I also have a fair amount of experience with small buyin MTT's and Satellite Tourneys. That being said, I think my skills of online hold'em have increased exponentially with the help of the Ventrillo and IRC guys, Soupie and JeffreyGB especially.

But now I'm gonna talk about what I was not too long ago... A fish. One FTR guy once quoted, "Stupid fish, calls down with 2 4 off. Die! Die!" ... What I'm about to tell you is the REASON that he called down. He called down because the flop was AQ3 and he was ONLY ONE CARD [omg] away from a straight!!! omgomgwtf! Now it may seem that I'm exaggerating this a bit but im not, fishies dont know what pot odds are. They dont know the odds of hitting that 3outer on the turn and river is ~%14. They dont know that by calling off 25% of their stack on this 3outer draw they will most certainly lose. They DO know that [omg] THEY ARE JUST ONE CARD AWAY FROM A STRAIGHT! OMG! [/omg]. Thats it. It's stupid. It makes us money. But the one time they catch it, the ONE time they suck out on your QQ with a wheel straight. That's the one time you remember, and its the one time that will make you tilt.


Most fish (and I use the term 'fish' loosely... It means any weekend warriors, and anybody not compitent of the rules/odds of holdem) got their online 'career' started by watching the many many re-runs of the WSOP, both 2003 and 2004. We are all familiar of the Chris Moneymaker story [side note: one of the greatest poker names EVER!] and the Greg 'Fossilman' Raymer story, how they qualified from Pokerstars, and Chris only had to pay $40, yadda yadda yadda. People hear this and they think [omg] "OMG I want to turn my $40 into $6,244,382,484,435,489.65 just like Moneymaker and Raymer did!!!!!!11one [/omg]. So they go to www.pokerstars.com, look around the site, take their $50 (hey dont knock it, alot of us started there) and deposit it into stars, hoping to win millions. Usually they bust out, but sometimes, just sometimes, they win. Alot. Quickly. Get up to $500 so quick it would make anybody jealous. These players are the bulk of our fish at $5-$50 sngs. the guys still with $50 play the 5's, while the guys who have made it up to 500 play the 50's, and everyone else is somewhere in between. Most people watch the WSOP, they see some of the best LAggy players in the world go at it, bluffing each other left and right, repping the ace, repping the flush, slowplaying the nuts perfectly, etc etc, and they think they can do this online. When they see somebody betting, they automatically assume it's a bluff, and when they see somebody checking, they assume its a strong hand slowplaying. Naturally, sometimes they will be right, but most of the time they're very very wrong. THAT, along with the [omg] GUTSHOT STRAIGHT DRAWS! [/omg] is what causes alot of fish to make those calls that make you stay up all night wondering wtf they were doing.


I'm sorry for all the rambling, but I'm just trying to get my point across. Fish dont understand pot odds, they will risk all their chips on a flush draw, sometimes even on a gutshot straight draw, simply because they are [omg] OMGWTF ONE CARD AWAY! [/omg] from a winning hand. It's dumb, It's stupid, and it almost never works, but when it does, dont let it get to you. Just remember that in the long run, you win. GG TYFP! You win! ... I hope this was insightful to the good players out there, and next time you think out loud to yourself "why the f*ck did that guy call with that?" as you scoop up his money, take comfort in the fact that he's a fish, and will continue to pay you off like that. Just add him to the buddy list, and make sure your 1st in line for his $$$.

Thankyou for reading through the ramble if anyone actually did. I'll add more as i think about it, and I dunno if this is sticky-worthy so I'll leave it up to the moderators.


-Chris

Also, I want to quickly talk about the "omg-wtf-why-am-i-paying-off-his-obvious-rivered-flush" call that alot of fairly advanced players will do, simply because they cant believe that the fish risked 3/4 of his stack on that flush draw, or straight draw, or whatever. Please, DONT MAKE THIS CALL. It's hard, but you usually have to fold here, simply because, THEY ARE THAT STUPID. Plain and simple. Once you learn this, I think you will be a much better player overall. That laydown of your 2pair or whatever you flopped is so hard once that scare river comes up, but its a laydown that you have to make, and a laydown that will save you so much money in the long run.

-Chris

I would just like to add a little bit more to Syked’s very accurate post if I may. (n.b. to avoid any arguments, I will use the phrase “n00b” to reflect fish, beginner or whatever term u like for people who make these plays)

1. Position

A n00b does not understand the concept of position.

“Didn’t Mike Sexton say something like this?! Hmmm . . . . nevermind, hurry up and get back to Gus Hanson calling with 97 off and some shots of Shana Hiatt will ya?”

“I don’t actually need to learn the concept of position. What difference does it make? The cards are the most important thing.”

2. Table Image

What will register - Mr LAggy in 6th seat who is playing wildly.

They have now taken it upon themselves to forget about playing properly; their new mission is to break this SoB so they can get themselves a few cheers from the rest of the table.

What will not - The fact that you’ve played only two hands in the first three orbits.

This is irrelevant. In fact, I would bet my bankroll that it hasn’t even registered.

3. The Two-Face Card Rule

Ok, so it’s not a “rule” as such, but a n00b simply sees two face cards (and I might include a T in here as well) as gold and proceeds to immensely overvalue it. “Wow!, both my cards are picture cards. I could get a big pair, 2 pair or even a straight here”. They fail to consider that the pot has been raised by someone in early position and this could well mean that they are a huge dog in the hand.

4. “Well, I’m pot-committed now . . . .”

It follows largely from 1., 2. and 3. above but goes something along the lines of . . . .

Cards are dealt and n00b looks down at QJo from UTG+1.

“I’m definitely calling that” thinks Mr N00b “I’ve got two face cards. Imagine the possibilities . . . .” so he proceeds to call. Two seats later, it’s raised. The button then re-raises. It’s folded round to n00b who know thinks “well, I’ve put 50 in the pot, what’s another 250?. After all, I’ve got QJ . . . .”

A n00b does not consider that the initial raiser could well have AQ or AJ and he certainly does not consider that someone re-raising may very well have AA, KK or QQ. He also fails to consider that he will be acting first at every stage thereafter.

5. “Hmmm . . . . I don’t want to raise, but I want to stay in”

A n00b has no problem in raising pre-flop. However, they do get worried when they do not know just how strong their hand is. This is because they simply cannot read the board or contemplate what other player’s actions mean in relation to the board. The concept of betting for information is alien to them or, even if they do bet, they are unable to assess and process the information they do receive.

Alternatively, going back to Syked’s post, the thought process runs something like “He bet . . . . he simply must be bluffing”.

They want to get to showdown to see just how good their QJo is with a Q on board.

6. “Yes! . . . . Pocket Rockets”

N00b raises pre-flop, usually something ridiculous like 8-10xBB. They are not raising because they want to drive out some of the weaker hands, but actually want some action on their hand, they look down, see AA and BANG! In goes the massive PFR.

Then what happens? . . . . Shock! Horror! Someone calls. Panic sets in. The flop comes down and before you even have a chance to work out what you’ve got . . . . Mr N00b is away . . . . “Hell, I’ve got pocket Aces. It was the best hand pre-flop, it must be the best hand now. ALL IN”

7. “I could hit the nut flush”

Again, no concept of position; pot odds or anything. There is no consideration for the action that has occurred before them or that which may occur after them.

A n00b looks down and sees AX s00ted. They are playing this hand. Why? . . . . Because they can hit a flush and a flush is a damn good hand, that’s why. They are blissfully unaware the odds of actually catching a flush draw, let alone the odds of finishing the hand with a flush. It is the mere prospect of it happening.

Mr N00b thinks “I was playing the other night and laid down A5 spades because someone raised. If I would have called, like I was going to, I would have hit the nut flush, doubled up and knocked him out. He went on to knock me out in 4th and win the tournament. I ain’t making that mistake again”

Originally Posted by Staresy

6. “Yes! . . . . Pocket Rockets”

N00b raises pre-flop, usually something ridiculous like 8-10xBB. They are not raising because they want to drive out some of the weaker hands, but actually want some action on their hand, they look down, see AA and BANG! In goes the massive PFR.

The alternative scenario for AA and KK is.....

"Yes ! .... Pocket Rockets."
limp preflop, min bet flop, min bet turn, AI on river.

Very good post staresy, I was going to add something like that when i woke up today as I just remembered all those things (I was REALLY tired last night) but you did it for me :P lol!


-Chris

These posts are rather too close to being a checklist for my own faults and foibles for comfort...

“Hmmm . . . . I don’t want to raise, but I want to stay in”

That's going on my tombstone.

Good post.

Can anyone offer some advice on how to defend against fish?
I don't want to turn this into a "bad beat" story, but lately I have been getting killed by people calling big bets with drawing hands. Is that just poker, or is there some advice to be had?

Can anyone offer some advice on how to defend against fish?


Most fish - show them hands. Stick with your TPTK, ignore the alarm bells that say "no one would call here if they couldn't beat top pair". As Doyle says, you don't have a lot of tools here, just the pick and shovel.

Weak tight fish - show them you will bet and are not going to let them check things down, if they stay with you after that you know you need to be able to beat JJ+.

EDIT - specific to people calling with draws, as long as you've given incorrect pot odds, don't do anything. You want people to call with bad odds, in the long run it will pay. Stopping them from drawing at you at the wrong price is your mistake and doing the fish a favor.

I will outline how I used to think back when I started(as most beginners and fish do).

1) Playing Small Pairs out of Position: "Wow we haven't hit the flop yet and ALREADY I have a PAIR!Of course I call! No problem if someone raises huge behind me;I could hit two pair(not knowing that could give someone trips or a boat) or better yet a set(not knowing their odds are 1 out of 7)".

2)Playing Ace-X suited low out of position: "Nice I got the nut flush draw hand.I love those flushes.Anyone raises behind means more money for me when(not knowing it's IF) I hit. Plus I can pair my Ace(not knowing their kicker is almost worthless),OR hit my low X" (not knowing an over could and will hit later in the hand).

3)Calling unprofitable bets to chase their flush/straight draws: "Wow I only need ONE more card to hit my hand!We got two more to come right?Of course I [just] call(instead of raising when necessary or folding when their pot odds are bad).

4)Not properly studying the game/learning from their mistakes: "Oh well ya' know poker is really just a game of luck.I just need to win every now and then and I'm happy".

Remembering a piss poor hand that once won and always viewing that as a top notch hand. "Remember that time I was big blind and I had 4-8? Well, the flop came 5-6-7. I had a great time taking money from that person with JJ who overbet when a J came on the turn!" Now, its ingrained in their mind to ALWAYS play 4-8, and if the person with JJ raises, well its time to call his bet and boy, is that guy in for a rude shocker when his 4-8 flops another nut straight and destroys his JJ (or if he flops a 4 card straight, he's calling to the river, watching his chips disappear, because he believes once he gets that card, his 4-8 is destroying that high pocket pair again)... then when it doesn't hit on the river and the person bets, he lays it down... only to show he was bluffed Goes on tilt. Gives everyone free money.

"Any two cards can win at poker". Yeah, you raised it 500 pre-flop, but you know what, I have 9-2 and if 999 or 222 or 992 comes on the flop, I have you destroyed. If it doesn't, oh well, I only lost 500 chips.. and I tripled up on that coin flip all-in, so I have 500 or so to GAMBLE! (they'll hit a 9 on the flop, instantly believe the person raised with AK, puts them AI, and the guy with AK hits an Ace or King and they proceed to talk about their awful bad beat.. and then don't understand why the messageboard people delete it and say its not a bad beat.. you are a fish!)

Suited cards are amazing. I'll raise pre-flop with K-4 SUITED!! And boy, if that flush comes, everyone who called my bet is going to PAY PAY PAY (I just need to make sure I dont jump out of my chair when I do)

"All in bluff". Dammit, as they say on TV, the only way this guy is going to win is if he bluffs... woah, he went all in! And the guy folded three queens! THATS AWESOME! And they will raise pre-flop, go all in on the river and becomes stunned when they are instantly called by two people

"OH MY GOD, MY BLUFF WORKED". Now, they think they are the poker god. Every hand is a major bluff. "These fools have no idea what hit them, for I, i am the king OF THE BLUFF".

"Sunglasses are cool". I can now officially bluff... because you see, pros, they know you are bluffing by the ways your eyes roll around on your end... its why raymer has those glasses, and he won 5 million with 40 bucks! I can be shaking, be fidgety in my chair, start smiling, but dammit, if they can't see my eyes, THEY HAVE NO IDEA I'M BLUFFING.

And my personal favorite is something I see at a home game I am in.. if someone goes in and gets two callers, there's this one guy, sitting there. He's holding 4-5 o/s. He's saying to himself "All of these are AI because they have high cards. I bet one person has AK. One has QJ... like wow, all of these high cards are now out of the deck"... and he calls saying "I'm gambling, and you know what, my 4-5 o/s has a great chance of hitting since all of you are are ALL in and the chances of those high cards hitting aren't that great (not realizing the people at the table who folded were probably holding a 4 or a 5)

"i don't get what you guys are talking about. you can't win if you don't play. and the flops are so crazy online you might as well limp when you can."

quote from a fish last night. insight into their minds maybe?

its hard to understand a fish. i think each fish, even among say only weekend warriors, have mostly different reasons for sucking. the only real requirement, is that they do not fundamentally understand odds. without this basic understanding, it allows for them to create a million reasons why what they are doing is the best thing thing they can do.

Mike Sexton and Vince Van Patten's quips on the game make it sound like any two cards can win... consistently. Also, TV doesn't have the other 90% of players who made these plays and lost their 10K+ buy ins. With the exception of the WSOP main event, not many tables are shown before the final table where the big money is. Fish begin to think they can play any 2 cards like hansen or negreanu because they win. They neglect to realize that hansen and negreanu have top notch post flop skills that overpower any cards they might call with preflop. I've seen the "maybe I can show this guy I'm for real with an all in right here" bet many times with newbs. Since I play mostly ring games, this is by far the worst thing they can do.

In my b&m limit games, players tend to play any 2 cards provided they are suited or at least one broadway. Everytime they get one pot, they begin to repeat it. Works great for me, I have an ATM in Oklahoma (I live in TX). One decent player said she will always play 23 because how often it hits. Sadly, that night did not refute this claim, but one hand she had 23, hit bottom 2 pair and i had my set

And about sunglasses, they can pierce your soul!!! But yeah, the real reason poker players wear glasses that I've noticed is to look around the table not letting the players know who they're looking at, not to shield their tell-stricken eyes.

Originally Posted by outphase

Mike Sexton and Vince Van Patten's quips on the game make it sound like any two cards can win... consistently. Also, TV doesn't have the other 90% of players who made these plays and lost their 10K+ buy ins.

TV also doesn't show the plethora of folded hands, but rather just the showdowns which make the game look sexy.

i think they see these people playing and think poker is 100% skill. and for pro's it is mostly skill, and involves little luck. but what they don't realize, is that a pro pushing, betting, calling, checking, is calculated. they are doing something. they may raise in a certain situation because they are sophisticated and know it will work, wheras you raise in the same situation because you're a stupid douche. the fish equates skill to the ability to stone cold bluff, when I think skill in poker has a lot more to do with being able to know when you're ahead in marginal situations.

Nice post syked.

I would add that a good player is only a Tilt away from being a fish. No, he won't play K2o UTG, but he would make other fishlike moves that he normally wouldn't consider.

I have only two things to say about the fish (and i have my hand up still)

If a noob has any draw that would win the pot by the river (yes that damn flush draw and that gutshot) then oh yes theyre going to call anything thats bet becasue as said omg theyre one card away and omg they would win the pot if they hit that hand.
secondly if they have tp/gk(tk) then they do not understand someone cold beat their hand no matter how many scare cards are on the board. Oh yes their going all in with top pair.

So i just say that if they want to chase it costs them their stack. If they hit fine gg nh off to bed i go. If they dont ive got more cash and i wait for the next 6 to come along.

Im no shark but at least i learn off the guys in here.

OK. I like this post. It's good and informative. Excellent!! Someone asked how to play fish when you're tight/agressive TAG strategy doesn't get them to fold. First, let me say that TAG is generally the best way to play overall. HOWEVER, when raising preflop doesn't limit the field and you're always up against the flush draw, stright draw and random 2 cards (and combinations there-of) when you raise your big PP preflop, then you're going to suffer. It's a fact. Most hand analysis is Heads Up, not with 5 callers to your 4xbb raise. So you start doing massive overraises and just get the blinds or whatever. I have developed and tested a strategy just for this situation. It's called Counter-Play. I normally wouldn't post it here. But since this is such a great post I figure I will. It's long. Everything I write is long. And like anything, the results are in the consistent, disciplined execution. The bad news about extremely fishy tables is they call anything, the good new is they don't know how to bet post flop, so they bet way too small to put you off a legitimate draw, if you're on one. Here's counterplay:

Counter-Play
NL Ring Play Theory
Anthony Okrongly

Hypothosis:
There is a beter way to play NL ring against a mixed table of both sharks and fish. That method revolves around tight/passive poker play until the turn or river.

Expected Results:
1. one table stake amount in winnings per 8 hours of accumulated table play. For example, 3 tables @ $200 buy-in will result in $200 net profit in 2:45 of play. 2 tables would be 4 hours of play
2. Less bad beats = less tilt play
3. 3x less lost on unmade or broken hands.
4. Moderately less average $ in winning pots
5. Safer play for more consistent results

Observations:
1. Multiple preflop callers with pot sized or 5xBB raises with "any 2", primarily nut cracking hands - which any hand can be if you have to balls to call a big preflop riase.
2. A GROUP of nut crackers can crack nuts more often than not.
3. 1/2 to pot sized bets only eliminate the nut cracking hands that lost potential. The one's on a draw stay in.
4. You can beat players who know how to fold to negative EV odds, or a single "gambler". But you cannot beat a table full of these type people with "Standard Play" consistently.
5. ROI for Standard play is 10% per 8 hour session in this environment IF YOU DON'T TILT OUT from consecutive bad beats. Variations occur from an extra-ordinary string of cards or comcumstances, but over time the 10% rule will apply.
6. Standard play BRAODCASTS YOUR HAND to good players and is unobserved by bad players.
7. "mixing it up" with raises of marginal hands, bluffs, etc has only a neutral impact on your monetary results. It just FEELS like you're doing something. But in the end your cards were better than his - even if he folded. "mixing it up" makes little difference in this environment.
8. Ultimately Standard Play, even though successful is too slow and tilt prone for most long-term quality players. That leaves "non-standard play" which for most good players manifests itslef as "feel play" - a combination of experienced observations and caluclated risk. In some instances this is superior to standard play. In others it is inferior. But in the end it is inconsistent and requires skills (feel) that mot players don't have consistently over th long term - including self-professed "feel" players.

Discussion:
There is another "non-standard" way to increase ROI in this situation - COUNTER-PLAY. Counter-play is a form of tight/passive play that exploits the tendencies of both strong shark players and weak fish players. The only risk of counter-play is being labelled a ROCK and getting less action with your good ahnds. However, most players will either learn that less the hard way - by paying you off repeatedly - or they will naturally be drawn to "banging their head against the rock" repeatedly.

Counter play play reduces your mathematical odds in some situations - by giving opponents drawing odds. However, both shark "feel" players and fill will take poor drawing odds to "crack you" which results in limits to your ability to have consistently large results - either by losing large pots or by tilting out (or both).

One major monetary advantage of counter-play is the "twitchy fish response" - which will be explained later. The other major advantage is that you become a "stealth pallyer". Both of these overcome mathematical weaknesses with psychological advantages.

Psychological Advantages and Terms:

1. Twitchy Fish Response - There are fishing lures that mimic sick and dying fish movements. These lures can often cause a fish to strike even when it isn't hungry. It's a natural, biological, evolutionary response to eliminate weakness on spec. Calling bets is a weak action. Repeatedly calling is a very weak action. Very regularly agressive players will instinctively attack this weak, passive display - The Twitchy Fish.

2. Stealth Play - In electronic warfare there are two ways to feel out your opponent. Passively or actively. When you actively ping your opponent with Radar/Sonar, etc. you get information, but you give vital info as well. When you bet or raise at a poker table you're actively pinging your opponents and giving away vital information. When you check or call, however, you're giving away the least information possible about your hand. Even a fold gives more info than a check or even a call. These are passive plays that leave your opponents to fill in the blanks. And often it triggers the twitchy fish response.

Stealth play also conserves your resources and information "display" until you reach terminal stage. Like a cruise missle that uses passive GPS or terrain recognition technology to approach a target and only turns on active radar once in the kill zone. Counter-play uses this same philosophy, once you have your victim in the kill zone, after he has given all his information and can only guess at yours. Once you know your hand is the best - not potentially the best - then you turn on your active radar with a big raise that puts him to the test. Is it a bluff? Why did he only call where standard play dictates a raise? Would he really slowplay with a flush draw on the board? Is he stupid or weak? He's weak! (twitchy fish). The additionaly benefit of stealth play is an enhanced ability to steal pots on the river once you show that you're willing to slowplay monster hands.

3. Tilt Buffer - The first two psychological factors of counter-play affect your opponents. The third affects you. Tilt caused by having big hands cracked - if not the first time then repeatedly - is real and costs real money as long as the player is on tilt. Counter-play doesn't overvalue hole cards from a "payback" expectation standpoint. "Slow Playing" heightens your risk of being cracked by also reduces your losses when it happens AND reduces your expectations to always have big pocket pairs hold up. The net difference is very low in real money but the psychological differences regarding tilt are huge.

COUNTER-PLAY TACTICS

The overall tactic is playing tight, positional poker with the same considerations as TAG poker Except you play very passively until the turn or river. That means yo ucheck/call the same hands you would normally bet/raise preflop - with one or two exceptions. In exceptional circumstance you will call/RERAISE preflop. But generally you ar eslowplaying or passively playing 95% of the hands you are involved in - still using tight/positional preflop considerations. These tactics are designed for tables that have a mix of "ace crackers" and fish where a standard 3-5xBB raise will NOT reduce your competion to 1 or 2 max players, and for tables wehre your competition will make calls that defy drawing odds with their drawing hands.

BASIC LOGIC

Teh basic logic of this type play is as follows:
- "if you're going to call anythign to seeif YOU make your draw, then I'm going to see TOO before I take control of this hand. Until I know i'm good I will check or check/call.
- "if you are going to only make small bets until you get 2 pair or better, then i'm just going to call your bets untili I get TOP 2 pair or better.
- "if you are willing to risk a significant amount of chips to delare you just made a great hand I'm going to believe you unless I have the nuts, then I'll put you all in for your trouble.
- "you want to improve your hand - SO DO I. So let's see who improves more. Or I already have the nuts, so I hope you improve anyway!

Postflop you are taking favorable pot odds to improve if you have position and your improvement doesn't improve the other guy to a nut hand - for instance where the card you need to trip your pocket pair makes a straight, your 2 of your open ended straight outs complete a flush draw. Calculate your "dead outs" as a factor of your post-flop play. If someone is going to underbet their nut hand throughout the hand and beats you, so be it. It didn't cost much. Don't raise or bet on the river if the only call you'll get is a better hand or if your opponent makes "nut repping" raises on the river. Just check and show or check and call a reasonable bet. On the river the rules is only to raise if you're prepared to commite all your remaining chips to the hand. Otherwise call, or check and take the hand down.

TURN BET - If you have a great hand like trips and there's one player drawing to the flush or straight then take the hand RIGHT THERE by putting him all in to call you or betting so much that it will hurt when he pee's to call it.

RIVER BET - On the river in early position - BET YOUR HAND. Remember however, that anyone could have made 2 pair or the hidden tset on the river. So make the pot-sized bet and if someone raises you significantly take them seriously. If all you have is tptk, then you may want to check/call to reduce your investment. At this point the only people who will call or raise will be people who think they have you beat. Do they? If it's a reasonable expectation, then play carefully.

RIVER RASIE - If you have "the hand" with a bet in front then either push or raise significantly (pot or greater). If they fold, they fold. However you've shown weakness - not strength - to this point. So all they have to work with are their own prejudices and self-talk. Not information you gave them. And, the less often you show, the better. Keep making the huge bet or raise on the river and it'll be called. One pot sized or greater call makes up for the 2-3 "value bets" you might have made.

BLUFFING - Once your rock reputation is establish at the table, you can make the river bluff. This a based on your reads and a willingness to make a 1-2x pot sized bluff or larger. Weak bluffs don't work. You've been taking pots with strong bets or raises on the river, you have to do the same thing now. In 1/2NL for instance with a $25 pot and $25 bet heads up where you think he has an underpair and you want to rep pairing the flop A - they you raise to $75. That's a pot sized raise, and if he doesn't have the A, he will lay his pocket underpair down.

SITUATIONAL PLAY:

AA/KK - With AA or KK.
Early or mid pos - call and Hope someone raises behind you. If noone raises you have to look at it as a drawing hand and hop for trips. Call TPTK bettor down, but don't go slinging chips with multiple players in the hand post flop. You hand value decreases dramatically.

If someone raises behind you preflop, then re-raise so much it hurts when they pee. Example $1/2NL, you call 2 as do others, someone late puts out a $10 raise to a $8 pot (the pot is now $18 with potential callers behind), RERAISE TO $50. Now the preflop callers are looking at calling an additional $48. It will steeply reduce your competition and the first raiser will probably call.

THAT'S IT. - there is no other situational preflop raises.

ADDITIONAL CONSIDERATIONS.

Making the huge overbet or over-raise on the river and getting folds is OK. Eventually someone will look you up and the times you're "looked up" will more than compensate for having numerous small calls. The goal is to show nut hands as infrequently as possible. Never show your cards when you don't have to. Be a male prostitute - "you have to pay alot to see my nuts!!"

ACTUAL RESULTS FROM ABOUT 32 HOURS OF MONITORED/RECORDED PLAY AT 1/2 (50 HANDS PER HOUR) OVER 8 SESSIONS.

Net $958 in wins over $18 in losses. For a net of $940 over 1600 hands at $1/2.

(note that these are actual results that include typical mistakes where someone might vary from optimal Counter-Play, such as bluffing at the wrong time, making a river raise when you shouldn't and calling that 'near nut' hand that you can't lay down. Examples of that for the results above include:
- Making a $30 raise on the river into a $15 bet (with top 2 pair) only to be reraised $120. I laid it down and he showed the trips he flopped.
- Doing the same as above but just getting called - and again he showed the trips against my top 2 pair.
- Making a raise steal attempt into a 3 way pot (from middle position), first player bets $18 into a $100 pot, I raise it to $58, and last position reraises to $215. So I folded a hand that I probably should have folded when the first guy bet $18.
- And Calling a $18 river bet (3 players) in middle position with A high straight when a back door flush hit. Based on the betting I lowered the value of the back door flush. Last position raises to $135 (all in) for a $108 pot. I called with A high straight, he showed that he flopped tp with open ended straight draw, turned the baby straight, and rivered the Straight Flush. Bad call.

(So with the above INCLUDED in the results, they stand at 1.15 NET EARNED buy in's per 8 hours of Table Play).


Notes:

1. If you don't know what tight/positional starting hands are then get a book.
2. If you can't calculate drawing odds then get a book - basically you want better than 4 to 1 for open ended straight and nut flush draws, and about 10 to one to draw with a pocket pair hoping to make trips.

Wow!
What a post!

I have to say ive tried this too although never with all the thought process of this.

I dont know where or at what level you play at mr okrongly but you damn sure think about the game. More posts please!

Bookmarked for further study. Thanks!

Miff, run a search on my name. it should give you some more to chew on. this is just one way to approach a certain situation. there are others, and using the right tactics for the situation - and changing them as the situation changes are the halmarks of good poker. But most people have probably never looked at this style as a defined way to play. And you can't adjust your style to the game if you only have one style and that's it.

bump.

Because it's that good.

LOL, I read the first post and was like, wtf? His roll is a lot bigger than that!

Gotta start looking at post dates more....