What I don't think I like is the bet. The reason you bet with a draw is FE plus the opportunity to get a free card on the turn. with one player it's a good play, with a ton of players... not so much... Check out, pray for free card
The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which unskilled individuals suffer from illusory superiority, mistakenly rating their ability much higher than average. This bias is attributed to a metacognitive inability of the unskilled to recognize their mistakes