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I guess I am in the minority here, but I hate sticking half of the effective stack in the middle and then folding an over pair on the river with a paired board.
When the villain flatted your flop bet, before acting on the turn... put him on a range of hands that might do that. What part of that range then calls a barrel?
It is 25NL, so I think you can put his flatting range on AJ, KJ, QJ, 99.. unless you think he actually flats with pre-flop with AK or QQ. 88 or JJ is possible, but he should get those in on the flop as you are obviously repping a big pair and the board is scary as shit.
Once the board pairs we are happy because it is highly unlikely we are behind and now he has less outs to river us.
I actually like a check-shove line on the turn.. I think he bets the majority of his flop calling range to protect against our AK, which is what it looks like we have now. I think he spews and calls with nearly his entire range quiet frequently once we shove.
We also have the added benefit of getting him to add some money to the pot with a couple bluffs.
As played, jam the river. If he has 99, AK, or QQ or some other crazy nut crap, oh well.. cooler. But when he snaps you off with AJ, QJ, KQ, KJ, AQ.. you will be happy you didn't check.
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