KQ vs nit

CO ($10.86)
Button ($19.65)
Hero (SB) ($30.93)
BB ($10.35)
UTG ($25)
MP ($11.17)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q, K
UTG bets $0.75, 1 fold, CO calls $0.75, 1 fold, Hero raises to $3.25, 1 fold, UTG calls $2.50, 1 fold

Flop: ($7.50) 7, J, 10 (2 players)
Hero bets $5.01, UTG raises to $21.75 (All-In), Hero calls $16.74


Villain is nitty (17/15), folds a LOT to 3bets (80%). I've been 3betting him quite a bit.

Was leading the flop a mistake? Do you check/call or check/fold here? If you do lead the flop, was the sizing OK?

I don't like check/call the flop since we don't really have much showdown value unimproved, and if we call one bet we're going to have to call it off anyway.

Once I do lead the flop and get shoved on, I stove this as being really thin, I have about 33% equity and I'm calling 17 into 33, but I think I've got to call it off.

I wouldn't say 17/15 is nitty.

3bet is way too big imo, if he's folding 80% to 3bets then we don't need to put this much money in to induce a fold. $2.25 seems better to me.

I'm definitely leading flop after 3betting, obv reluctantly call when he shoves.

Originally Posted by BorisTheSpider

Was leading the flop a mistake? Do you check/call or check/fold here? If you do lead the flop, was the sizing OK?

Once I do lead the flop and get shoved on, I stove this as being really thin, I have about 33% equity and I'm calling 17 into 33, but I think I've got to call it off.

Tough. If I open the flop, I have to call any bet. If I check the flop, I have to either shove or fold any to bet. I can't fold with OESD +2 overcards here, and a back door flush. So I lead the flop.

The bet size was probably exactly what I'd do, too. Maybe 1/2 pot bet would be better to see if villain is chasing with weaker draw or TPTK.

Putting villain on a range using just his numbers, 15% for PFR, -12% for the 80% of those that are folded to 3-bet. Split the 12% to take 8% off the bottom of villain's range and 4% off the top (the villain did NOT 4-bet). 15% - 8% off the bottom is 7%... take 4% off the top, and villains range is 3% including {88 - JJ, KQs, AQs, AJs, ATs}. Stove vs. that range is 41%

i really hate squeezing pre, you should be really careful about using stats like fold to 3bet. Not only is it a stat that requires a large sample that you may not have, but its also going to be different by position.as played i really like c/f'ing flop planning on overbetting turns that he checks back

Originally Posted by Imthenewfish

i really hate squeezing pre, you should be really careful about using stats like fold to 3bet. Not only is it a stat that requires a large sample that you may not have, but its also going to be different by position.as played i really like c/f'ing flop planning on overbetting turns that he checks back

It's not really a big sample needed. If someone folds 5 times in a row to 3bets, they likely fold a lot to 3bets. It's not statistically solid, but it's normally going to be correct. People aren't machines, and there are people who will fold all day, and there are people who will take a stand the 2nd time they are 3bet - statistics don't tell you that story. I take your point about the positional variation though.

c/f flop is just lighting 10bb+ of equity in the flop pot on fire. As MMM pointed out, we actually have more equity than I thought since I didn't adjust his range properly before stoving it, but even if you use my original numbers, I'm never folding 2 overs + OESD here. I guess I just originally asked about c/f since the tendency in these situations is to get a bit results oriented and wonder if you were playing spewy, but later when you examine it objectively once the pressure is taken off, you can come to a better conclusion - I actually really hate folding here.

Call pre.

Fold preflop if you've been 3betting him loads, his UTG is likely stronger than his stats suggest and he won't fold as much to your 3bet being in position.

If the CO was bad I'd consider calling preflop.

As played this flop hits his calling range really well, probably check and see what he does.

Originally Posted by Hoopy

Fold preflop if you've been 3betting him loads, his UTG is likely stronger than his stats suggest and he won't fold as much to your 3bet being in position.

If the CO was bad I'd consider calling preflop.

As played this flop hits his calling range really well, probably check and see what he does.

Keep in mind that this is 6max

im not sure how c/f'ing is lighting money on fire when it's 0 ev when he bets, and b/cin'g is 0 ev when he shoves. how much equity do you think we have here?

Originally Posted by Imthenewfish

im not sure how c/f'ing is lighting money on fire when it's 0 ev when he bets, and b/cin'g is 0 ev when he shoves. how much equity do you think we have here?

Well as MMM said, we have about 42% against a well adjusted range. Unless we flop 2 pair or better, what better situation than OESD+2overs+BackdoorFlush are we expecting on the flop? In this hand, against his range, I'd rather have this draw than TPWK that is liable to be dominated.

If we lead, we can assume he doesn't _always_ shove, surely leading is better as we might just take it down right there? I may be wrong, but I'd rather come out betting than surrender my equity in a big pile of possibly dead money in the middle when I have a lot of outs, and checking it to him is just giving him the chance to put me to the same decision that I can otherwise put him to by leading out.

Originally Posted by !Luck

Call pre.

Maybe, but in the event we flop as well as we do, it's a little tough to play without the initiative.

More thoughts on this hand.

Postflop, we are in a sticky spot. We have too good a hand to fold, and we have to lead out and get it in, but really, it's marginal and we'd prefer not to be in that situation.

So the issue is preflop. The observation that I shouldn't have squeezed OOP against an UTG open by a tight player was a good one. Which leaves us with calling or folding.

If we fold, we're throwing away a very servicable hand, but OOP and against a tight UTG opener, this may not be a bad thing.

If we call, we have the same kind of sticky situation postflop, but in a smaller pot and we can go from there. It will need careful postflop play with lots behind, and I can actually see it degenerating into a pissing contest where all the money goes in on the flop anyway.

Because of that I'm leaning towards folding.

Originally Posted by BorisTheSpider

If we call, we have the same kind of sticky situation postflop, but in a smaller pot and we can go from there. It will need careful postflop play with lots behind, and I can actually see it degenerating into a pissing contest where all the money goes in on the flop anyway.

You are not heads up. There is a 3rd player in the hand.

Originally Posted by !Luck

You are not heads up. There is a 3rd player in the hand.

Thanks - that's an excellent point, and I had forgotten it was 3way when I said I was leaning towards folding. I guess given it's more likely to play out straightforwardly I can definitely see calling with this.

Flat pre and shove over his cbet? Anybody else like this line as much as me?

Originally Posted by acg123

Flat pre and shove over his cbet? Anybody else like this line as much as me?

flop: $2.50 villain bets $2, hero SHOVES TWENTY F'N DOLLARS

Lol

Originally Posted by d0zer

flop: $2.50 villain bets $2, hero SHOVES TWENTY F'N DOLLARS

I hate you slightly less than I did before.

Originally Posted by d0zer

flop: $2.50 villain bets $2, hero SHOVES TWENTY F'N DOLLARS

oh wow, I misread the hh. I thought hero was IP, lets try this again.
Flat pre and c-c flop, c-r any turn that improves our equity? A,K,Q,J,T,9,or heart? I say flat pre cuz KQs is a flip/dominated type hand vs. tight utg range.
Add in the fact that now I realized were in sb and I think flatting is def. Better than 3b. When you 3b without the nuts in this spot your giving money away his range is always strong here.
I think the worst hand he shows up with here after flatting pre is AQ of spades. his range ps prolly TT+, AQs+,AKo(if hes not 4b jamming AKo)
Do you think this is fair assesment?

i don't hate any of the decisions in this hand. 3betting pre i think depends on your style, skill level etc as well as recent history/table dynamics. i probably play the hand the same on the flop.